Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has sparked significant interest on Wall Street regarding his proposal for a new agreement between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, aimed at reshaping their relationship, potentially impacting the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market and fundamentally altering the Fed's balance sheet management [1][2]. Group 1: Proposed Agreement - Waller has called for a new version of the "1951 Agreement" to reform the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, which historically limited the Fed's footprint in the bond market and established its autonomy in monetary policy [2]. - The proposed agreement would clearly define the size of the Fed's balance sheet and align it with the Treasury's debt issuance plans, addressing concerns raised during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the Fed's extensive asset purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Treasury's Position - Treasury Secretary Yellen shares Waller's skepticism towards prolonged quantitative easing (QE), advocating for its use only in genuine emergencies and with coordination among government departments [3]. - A streamlined new agreement may stipulate that the Fed can only conduct large-scale Treasury purchases with Treasury approval, aiming to halt QE as market conditions allow [3]. Group 3: Asset Composition Shift - There is an expectation that a more substantive agreement could lead to a significant shift in the Fed's asset holdings, moving from medium- and long-term securities to Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less [4]. - This shift would enable the Treasury to reduce the issuance of notes and bonds or at least avoid significant increases in issuance [4][5]. Group 4: Market Risks and Concerns - While enhanced coordination may aim to lower borrowing costs for U.S. borrowers, any fundamental changes carry risks, including concerns about the Fed's independence and its potential alignment with fiscal policy [6]. - Analysts warn that a public agreement linking the Fed's balance sheet to Treasury financing could undermine the Fed's inflation-fighting mandate, leading to increased volatility and diminished attractiveness of U.S. assets [6]. Group 5: Skepticism on Formal Agreement - Some experts express skepticism about the likelihood of a formal agreement, suggesting that while cooperation may increase, it could also reduce the chances of a formalized arrangement [7]. - There are proposals for the Fed to exchange its $2 trillion mortgage-backed securities portfolio for Treasury bills, aimed at lowering mortgage rates, but this faces significant obstacles [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has escalated, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential implications for monetary policy and consumer credit markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - Federal prosecutors are investigating Powell, focusing on his public statements and expenditure records, which have been approved by Trump's allies [2]. - Powell has faced criticism from Trump for refusing to lower interest rates, and Trump has indicated he will soon announce a successor to Powell [2][7]. - Powell claims the investigation is a political maneuver aimed at exerting pressure on him regarding interest rate decisions, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to operate free from political influence [2][3]. Group 2: Administrative Interventions in Interest Rates - Trump has taken steps to directly influence interest rates, including instructing government-sponsored enterprises to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, viewed as a form of "quantitative easing" [4][5]. - He has also proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10% starting January 20, 2026, which is seen as an attempt to bypass the Federal Reserve [5]. - Analysts suggest that these actions may have limited short-term financial impact but could significantly alter market perceptions and the valuation framework for mortgage-backed securities [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Market Reactions - Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge fund manager, warns that artificially lowering interest rates could lead banks to withdraw credit card services, pushing consumers towards unregulated lending markets with worse terms [1][5]. - The potential for increased inflation due to political pressure on the Federal Reserve raises concerns about long-term economic stability and the impact on future elections for the Republican Party [6]. - Powell's commitment to maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for achieving price stability and managing inflation, which is a significant concern for the public [6][3].

据新华社报道，近日，美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）展开刑事调 查，调查涉及美联储办公大楼的翻修工程等。 这标志着美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔的冲突，在搁浅数月后，重新再升级。这一最新发展，叠加特朗普最 新绕开美联储，试图行政干预重要利率水平的举措，令市场对于美联储独立性担忧也重新被点燃。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓此前曾对一财记者表示，特朗普长期施压美联储的做法，可能 适得其反。通过施压美联储降息，除了影响短期利率，特朗普还有一个目的是想让长期利率下行。但假 设他选了一个不顾经济发展形势，一味听他话去降息的美联储主席，长期利率不仅不会下行，反而会上 行，因为市场会预计通胀将攀升。"事实上，此前特朗普升级冲突时的市场预演就是如此反应的，长期 美债收益率飙升，收益率曲线陡峭化。"她补充称。 特朗普与美联储之争重新升级 据报道，相关官员表示，这项调查包括分析鲍威尔的公开声明和审查支出记录，已获得特朗普的盟友、 检察官珍妮·皮罗的批准。 此前，鲍威尔多次拒绝特朗普的降息要求，遭到后者批评。特朗普上周接受美媒采访时表示，他已经决 定了未来谁将接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席，预计很 ...

据新华社报道，近日，美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）展开刑事调查，调查涉及 美联储办公大楼的翻修工程等。 这标志着美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔的冲突，在搁浅数月后，重新再升级。这一最新发展，叠加特朗普最新绕开美 联储，试图行政干预重要利率水平的举措，令市场对于美联储独立性担忧也重新被点燃。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓此前曾对一财记者表示，特朗普长期施压美联储的做法，可能适得其 反。通过施压美联储降息，除了影响短期利率，特朗普还有一个目的是想让长期利率下行。但假设他选了一个不 顾经济发展形势，一味听他话去降息的美联储主席，长期利率不仅不会下行，反而会上行，因为市场会预计通胀 将攀升。"事实上，此前特朗普升级冲突时的市场预演就是如此反应的，长期美债收益率飙升，收益率曲线陡峭 化。"她补充称。 特朗普与美联储之争重新升级 据报道，相关官员表示，这项调查包括分析鲍威尔的公开声明和审查支出记录，已获得特朗普的盟友、检察官珍 妮·皮罗的批准。 除了突然起诉鲍威尔外，特朗普近期针对利率水平还动作频频。上周四，特朗普表示，他正指示房利美和房地美 购买2000亿美元抵押贷款债券(MB ...

市场对于美联储独立性担忧也重新被点燃。 据新华社报道，近日，美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）展开刑事调查，调查涉及 美联储办公大楼的翻修工程等。 这标志着美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔的冲突，在搁浅数月后，重新再升级。这一最新发展，叠加特朗普最新绕开美 联储，试图行政干预重要利率水平的举措，令市场对于美联储独立性担忧也重新被点燃。 瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔晓此前曾对一财记者表示，特朗普长期施压美联储的做法，可能适得其 反。通过施压美联储降息，除了影响短期利率，特朗普还有一个目的是想让长期利率下行。但假设他选了一个不 顾经济发展形势，一味听他话去降息的美联储主席，长期利率不仅不会下行，反而会上行，因为市场会预计通胀 将攀升。"事实上，此前特朗普升级冲突时的市场预演就是如此反应的，长期美债收益率飙升，收益率曲线陡峭 化。"她补充称。 特朗普与美联储之争重新升级 据报道，相关官员表示，这项调查包括分析鲍威尔的公开声明和审查支出记录，已获得特朗普的盟友、检察官珍 妮·皮罗的批准。 此前，鲍威尔多次拒绝特朗普的降息要求，遭到后者批评。特朗普上周接受美媒采访时表示，他已经决定了未 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's unconventional policies aimed at addressing the housing crisis and inflation in the U.S. as he prepares for the midterm elections [2][3][4] - Trump has intervened directly in interest rates, bypassing the Federal Reserve, which raises concerns about the potential politicization of market pricing and financial stability risks [2][3] - The administration's actions include prohibiting institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, which may impact housing markets across the U.S. [8][10] Group 2 - Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% could significantly reduce profits for credit card companies, potentially leading to tighter credit availability for consumers [3][6][7] - The administration's strategy to lower mortgage rates involves directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, aiming to make housing more affordable [11][12] - Concerns have been raised that capping interest rates may lead to unintended consequences, such as reduced access to credit for consumers and a shift towards higher-cost alternative financing options [7][8]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.04%, S&P 500 futures by 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.20% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.41%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.52%, France's CAC 40 up 0.86%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.06% [2][3] - WTI crude oil has increased by 0.73%, priced at $58.18 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is also up by 0.73%, priced at $62.44 per barrel [3][4] Economic Events - The US is anticipating a significant day with the release of the December non-farm payroll report and a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policy, which could impact market volatility [5] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the upcoming non-farm data is unlikely to change the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy unless there is a significant surprise, with a consensus estimate of 70,000 jobs added [5] Company News - Meta has signed three major nuclear energy agreements totaling 6.6 gigawatts to secure long-term zero-carbon power for its AI data centers, leading to significant pre-market stock increases for partners Oklo and Vistra [9] - Trump has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower housing costs ahead of the midterm elections, positively impacting related stocks [7] - Intel's stock has surged over 70% since the US government began purchasing shares, following a meeting between Trump and Intel's CEO to discuss new processor developments [10] - General Motors is taking a $6 billion charge to reduce its electric vehicle investments, following a similar move by Ford, indicating a contraction in the electric vehicle market [12] - TSMC reported a 20% increase in Q4 revenue, reaching approximately $33.1 billion, exceeding market expectations and suggesting resilience in AI spending for 2026 [13]