Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of overbought conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have led to an increase in the U.S. dollar index, thereby exerting downward pressure on gold [2][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP, initial jobless claims, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance high inflation risks with a weakening labor market [2] - Powell acknowledged the rising risks in the labor market and inflation, stating that monetary policy remains moderately restrictive but capable of addressing potential economic developments [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at 3715 and 3680, and resistance levels at 3780 and 3800 [4]

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high of $3791 per ounce, falling to a low of $3717 due to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dampening interest rate cut expectations [1][3] - Powell's cautious outlook on interest rate decisions highlighted the need to balance high inflation with a weak job market, contributing to the decline in gold prices [3] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.137%, and real yields climbing nearly 3.5 basis points to 1.76%, negatively impacted gold prices as they are inversely related [3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop, gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating a sustained upward trend, with strong buying power observed at lower levels [6] - The resistance level for gold is identified around $3758, while support is noted at $3735 and $3720, suggesting potential trading strategies based on these levels [8]

Core Insights - The interbank foreign exchange market in August experienced stable trading, with a slight year-on-year decline in average daily trading volume [1] - The offshore yuan exchange rate showed a significant appreciation towards the end of August, reflecting stronger market expectations [2] - The implied volatility in the options market indicated a rising short-term appreciation expectation for the yuan [4] Group 1: Trading Volume and Market Activity - In August, the average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.06% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $136.03 billion, down 9.32% year-on-year and 7.65% month-on-month [1] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market remained active, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 20% [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Movements - The onshore yuan exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1650 and 7.1950 in early August, strengthening to a midpoint of 7.1030 by the end of the month, representing a 0.83% appreciation [1] - The average daily deviation of the market transaction price from the midpoint was 441 basis points, widening by 236 basis points compared to the previous month [1] - The offshore yuan (CNH) appreciated by 1.02% by the end of August, closing at 7.1276 [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The average daily net selling of foreign exchange in August was $1.78 million, with a shift from net buying in the first half of the month to net selling in the second half [2] - The market's herd effect index was recorded at 63.52, slightly down from July but above the historical average of 62.65 [2][3] Group 4: Options Market and Interest Rate Differentials - The average daily trading volume in the yuan foreign exchange options market was $5.83 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 22.51% [4] - The implied volatility for at-the-money options rebounded, indicating a notable increase in market sentiment regarding short-term yuan appreciation [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.23% by the end of August, contributing to a narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [4]

在此背景下，有市场分析人士表示，黄金仍在消化此前一天美联储的一些评论以及与俄罗斯的地缘紧张 局势，在一些经济数据出炉之前，短期市场情绪略显谨慎。 但从中长期来看，政治和经济不确定时期，作为避险资产的黄金更具吸引力。且随着美联储政策方向转 向宽松，黄金作为一种非孳息资产，在低利率环境下也往往会明显受益。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格下跌15美分，收于每盎司44.115美元，跌幅为0.34%，结算报44.192美 元。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 受重要通胀指标公布前的谨慎情绪影响，9月24日（周三），国际金价遭遇温和获利了结，震荡收跌。 当天，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价收盘较前一交易日下跌28.4美 元，收于每盎司3768.5美元，跌幅为0.75%，结算价报3768.1美元。 分析来看，由于美联储主席鲍威尔在前一天的讲话中强调"必须谨慎平衡顽固的通胀与就业市场放缓之 间风险"，这一表态没有给未来货币政策动向带来新的线索。同时，本周五将公布美国个人消费支出 （PCE）物价指数 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.65% to 97.86, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies declined, with the euro falling by 0.64% to 1.1738 against the dollar [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.59% to 1.3448 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar dropped by 0.24% to 0.6583 against the dollar [1] - The US dollar rose by 0.84% to 148.9035 against the Japanese yen [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.44% to 1.3897 against the Canadian dollar [1] - The US dollar increased by 0.47% to 0.7951 against the Swiss franc [1]

2025 年 9 月 24 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货价格再创上市以来新 高 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4518 和 4545 点，支撑位 4444 和 4408 点；IH2512 阻力位 2940 和 2955 点，支撑位 2898 和 2884 点；IC2512 阻力位 7035 和 7081 点，支撑位 6881 和 6785 点；IM2512 阻力位 72 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have not significantly impacted commodity prices, with underlying market fundamentals appearing weak [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Analysis - Demand growth is slowing, and OPEC+ is increasing supply, which may lead to lower oil prices until the end of 2026 [1] - The potential price support from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be offset by other factors, limiting any additional support for commodity prices [1] Group 2: Dollar Index and Technical Analysis - The dollar index is testing key technical levels and may form a bearish closing reversal top pattern [1] - If confirmed, this pattern could trigger a pullback to the 50% support level at 97.021 [1] - Strong resistance is present at the 50-day moving average of 98.070 and the pivot resistance level of 98.238 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing fluctuations, currently at 97.35, with a slight increase of 0.12%, while the overall financing environment in the U.S. Treasury market is tightening [1] Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Conditions - The dollar index opened at 97.23 and is facing resistance from previous highs, indicating a potential for short-term volatility [1] - Initial stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for the dollar, but the index remains constrained [1] - The general collateral (GC) repo rate opened at 4.17%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating overnight funding rates are hovering between 4.00% and 4.25% [1] Group 2: Market Focus and Key Events - Market attention is concentrated on the upcoming Treasury bill auction results and public statements from several Federal Reserve officials, which are expected to influence the relationship between the Treasury market and the dollar [1] - The dollar index faces short-term resistance levels between 97.40 and 97.45, with significant support levels between 97.15 and 97.20 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 97.45 to 97.05, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：降息预期高涨，美元走弱，金价再创新高；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧 洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌4.06个基点 报4.106%；美元指数跌0.08%报97.23，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1136；COMEX 黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美联储委员和英央行委员讲话、美国8月新屋销售。美联储降息 预期高涨，美元指数回落，金价继续创新高。沪金溢价扩大至-10元/克。降息预期 高涨再度推高金价，10期权合约今天到期，到期后或 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月24日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.1132，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1133。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1147。 同日，人民币对美元中间价下调20个基点，报7.1077。 与此同时，美元指数震荡上行，截至9时30分，报97.3384。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在一份报告中分析，8月份，美联储降息预期强化，叠加市场对美联储 独立性担忧加剧，促使美元重新转弱，人民币汇率升值动能增强，但市场预期保持基本稳定。跨境资金 转为净流入，主要反映了美债收益率下行、外资放缓减持境内人民币债券的影响，外资对中国股票资产 兴趣增强。8月份，银行结售汇顺差收窄，市场主体结汇意愿减弱、购汇动机增强，表明人民币汇率加 速升值并非基本面主导。市场结售汇意愿变化，再次说明市场主体并未积累汇率补涨预期。 ...