Group 1 - The trading activity of 30-year Treasury futures has significantly declined due to dual impacts of capital migration and supply pressure, with a notable drop in trading volume since mid-July as stock markets and commodities see increased activity and risk appetite rises [1] - Analysts suggest that if stock market sentiment cools or expectations for interest rate cuts increase, long-term bonds may experience a temporary rebound, although the overall bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state due to rising local government bond supply and weak institutional buying [1] - Short-term interest rate trends indicate two possible scenarios: either rates will fluctuate weakly at high levels with opportunities for slight rebounds, or rates will continue to rise but quickly retreat [1] Group 2 - As of August 15, 2025, the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) has seen a slight increase of 0.02%, with a latest price of 106.33 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.75% over the past year [1] - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has a turnover rate of 4.67% during trading, with a transaction volume of 26.5156 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 5.23 billion yuan over the past year [2] - The ETF has shown a net value increase of 0.61% over the past six months, with a historical performance of 100% profitability over two years and a maximum drawdown of 0.21% in the last six months, which is the lowest among comparable funds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Considering that the absolute return of ultra - long credit bonds remains at a low level and the direction of the bond market is unclear, trading opportunities for this bond type still need to be awaited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1存量市场特征 - Ultra - long credit bond yields fluctuate within a narrow range. From August 4th to August 8th, 2025, information affecting bond pricing was still complex, and the bond market sentiment was cautious. Compared with the previous week, the yields of existing ultra - long credit bonds declined slightly, with the yield center maintaining between 2.1% and 2.3% [2][13]. 3.2一级发行情况 - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds rebounded. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 19.7 billion yuan. Although the supply increased to some extent, its proportion in the total issuance scale of credit bonds for the week continued to decline. The average issuance interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds continued to rise and has now reached over 2.3%. Due to the increase in the coupon rate of ultra - long industrial bonds and the low - level hovering of the initial - month capital interest rate, investors' participation in subscribing for ultra - long credit bonds strengthened [3]. 3.3二级成交表现 - The pricing of the ultra - long credit bond index was basically the same as last week. Against the backdrop of increased difficulty in bond market forecasting, the performance of ultra - long credit bonds was inferior to mainstream bond assets. This week, the index trends of treasury bonds over 10 years, medium - term notes from 3 - 5 years, and secondary bonds of national - owned and joint - stock banks from 3 - 5 years were all better than that of the ultra - long credit bond index [4]. - The number of ultra - long credit bond transactions decreased significantly. Since July, ultra - long credit bonds have lacked floating profits. In an unstable bond market, the drawback of difficult - to - control drawdowns led to a significant weakening of the trading demand for this bond type. The total number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above decreased from 515 last week to 389 this week. In terms of transaction returns, the average transaction yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds marginally recovered, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds compressed to 22bp, but the yields of general credit bond varieties over 10 years were still rising [4]. - Correspondingly, the low - valuation transaction margin of ultra - long credit bonds narrowed significantly this week, and the trading form of some long - term bond varieties changed to high - valuation. In terms of buying sentiment, the proportion of TKN transactions of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds with good liquidity dropped below 70% [4]. - Regarding the investor structure, insurance companies' willingness to hold ultra - long credit bonds was strong. This week, insurance companies' net purchase of credit bonds over 7 years reached 4.55 billion yuan. Funds, which had significantly reduced their holdings of ultra - long credit bonds in the previous two weeks, increased their holdings of 7 - 20 - year varieties to some extent this week. It is possible that as the assessment time approaches, some fund investors are extending the duration to increase returns [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, the overall share of bond ETFs continued to expand, driven by credit - bond and convertible - bond ETFs, and the net values of various types generally increased. Convertible - bond ETFs led the growth in terms of net value increase and capital inflow [3][24]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of August 8, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 517.93 million, 501.07 million, 81.38 million, 3060.38 million, and 4433.45 million respectively, with a total of 8594.20 million shares. Compared with August 1, 2025, the changes were - 9.06 million, - 3.05 million, 1.20 million, 140.96 million, and 196.70 million respectively, and the total change was 326.75 million shares. Compared with the end of last month, the total change was 387.50 million shares [3][6]. 1.2 主要债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share performance of major bond ETFs was differentiated, with urban - investment - bond and convertible - bond ETFs being the main growth drivers. As of August 8, 2025, the shares of selected leading bond ETFs changed by - 3.95 million, - 3.86 million, no change, 105.00 million, and 127.50 million respectively compared with last week [3][7]. - The shares of credit - bond ETFs slightly increased. As of August 8, 2025, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed to varying degrees compared with August 1, 2025 [3][11]. - The shares of science - innovation - bond ETFs generally increased. As of August 8, 2025, the shares of 10 existing science - innovation - bond ETFs changed to varying degrees compared with last week [3][14]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 净值走势 - This week, the net values of major bond ETFs maintained an upward trend, with convertible - bond ETFs ending their decline and leading the increase. As of August 8, 2025, the net values of selected leading bond ETFs changed by 0.11%, 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.09%, and 2.28% respectively compared with last week [3][16]. - The net values of credit - bond ETFs all increased. As of August 8, 2025, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.06%, 0.08%, 0.09%, and 0.09% respectively compared with last week [3][18]. - The net values of science - innovation - bond ETFs showed a steady upward trend. As of August 8, 2025, the net values of 10 science - innovation - bond ETFs changed by 0.11%, 0.12%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.11%, 0.10%, 0.10%, and 0.09% respectively compared with August 1, 2025 [3][22]. 1.4 部分债券 ETF 净流入情况 - Convertible - bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow this week and this month. In the weekly view, the top three bond ETFs with cumulative net inflows were convertible - bond ETF, urban - investment - bond ETF, and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible - bond ETF, with net inflow amounts of 166.30 million yuan, 150.61 million yuan, and 84.95 million yuan respectively. In the monthly view, the top three were the same, with net inflow amounts of 240.12 million yuan, 161.80 million yuan, and 78.81 million yuan respectively. In terms of cumulative trading - day inflows, convertible - bond ETFs also ranked first in the past 10 and 20 trading days [3][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Maintains the view that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. Currently, it has entered the starting point of the second stage of the bond market's three - step process in the second half of the year. August is regarded as an oscillatory adjustment period after redemption, but the market has not shown a trend improvement in the quarterly dimension [26]. - In the short term, there may be a small - band long - trading window in the first half of August. New bond issuance pressure is low, the VAT policy still benefits old bonds, large banks' bond - allocation power is strong, funds are loose, upcoming weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and historically, policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - For trading portfolios, seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August for small - band trading. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities brought by the VAT policy [45]. - For allocation portfolios, wait for new bonds to adjust to more suitable positions, and consider old bonds at curve convex points, such as 6y CDB, 7y ADBC, 10y CDB, and 15y treasury bonds [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Value - added Tax New Rule: One - week Market Conditions - **Emotional Impact Stage (August 1st, 4th)**: The "old - new cut - off" of the VAT policy led to tax - exemption advantages for old bonds. Institutions rushed to buy old bonds, with the yield of the 10y treasury active bond dropping from 1.715% to 1.68%, then rising back to around 1.7% due to profit - taking and a strong stock market [13]. - **Bank Bond - buying Stage (August 5th - 7th)**: Banks continued to buy bonds, with the intensity weakening. On August 6th, the Agricultural Development Bank and the Export - Import Bank rushed to issue tax - exempt bonds. The auction results started to price in negative factors as investors awaited higher - yielding new bonds [16][19]. - **New Bond Issuance Stage (August 8th)**: The first batch of local bonds in Hebei and Hubei were auctioned. The adjustment of Hebei bonds was large, attracting more investors to Hubei bonds. The overall impact of VAT on new bonds was controllable, with the adjustment range mostly within the 3 - 6% tax rate [22][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy - **Quarterly Dimension**: Maintains that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. The bond market is in a difficult trading situation, and accounts need to gradually increase liquidity [26]. - **Short - term (First Half of August)**: There may be a small - band long - trading window. New bond issuance pressure is low, funds are loose, weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - **Trading Portfolios**: Seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities [45]. - **Allocation Portfolios**: Wait for new bonds to adjust and consider old bonds at curve convex points [48]. 3.3 Interest - rate Bond Market Review - **Overall Situation**: The central bank's support and the VAT new policy had limited impact. Long - term bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield curve steepened, with the 1y treasury active bond yield down 1.5BP, the 10y down 0.4BP, and the 30y up 1.8BP [9]. - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, but the funding was balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 were at low levels, and the central bank's front - loaded 3M term repurchase operations showed a supportive attitude [10]. - **Primary Issuance**: Net financing of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while that of local bonds decreased [69]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of treasury bonds and CDB bonds widened. Short - term bond yields performed better than long - term ones [63].

在当今瞬息万变的债券市场中，专业及时的信息已成为投资者最核心的竞争力。国债收益率的微妙波 动、企业债信用利差的跳涨、央行政策的突然转向——每一条信息的领先获取，都可能意味着巨大的收 益机会或风险规避。面对市场上纷繁复杂的财经资讯平台，专业投资者如何选择高效工具？本文将深度 解析新浪财经APP稳居榜首的核心优势。 | | 中美利差 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中美利差(左) -252bp | | ■ 中债 +1.710% ■ 美债 | +4.231% | | 153 | | | 4.91% | | 36 | | | 1.0229 | | -80 | | 177 | 3.13% | | -196 | | | 2.23% | | 1/313 2021-11-26 | | | 34% 2025-08-05 | | 最后更新:2025-08-06 02:36:33 | | | | | 期限 | 中国 | 美国 | 利差 | | 1年 | 1.340 | 3.934 | -259bp | | 2年 | 1.410 | 3.733 | -232bp | | 3年 | 1.440 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of bonds by China Development Bank (CDB) includes a 1-year bond of 6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.3600% and a 3-year bond of 5 billion yuan at 1.6662%, with bid multiples of 3.70 and 3.41 respectively [1] - Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) issued a 91-day bond of 3 billion yuan at 1.3886% and a 3-year bond of 12 billion yuan at 1.6203%, with bid multiples of 3.15 and 2.42 respectively [1] - Ningbo issued a 10-year local government bond of approximately 4.2933 billion yuan at 1.7700% and a 7-year special local bond of 412 million yuan at 1.7400%, with bid multiples of 2.69 and 7.99 respectively [1] Group 2 - The CDB bond ETF (159651) shows a recent price of 106.3 yuan, with a 1-year cumulative increase of 1.66% and a 2-year net value increase of 4.45% [2] - The trading volume for the CDB bond ETF is 4.16% with a transaction value of approximately 29.36 million yuan, and the average daily transaction over the past year is 5.32 billion yuan [2] - The CDB bond ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.41% over the past six months, with a recovery time of 61 days [2] Group 3 - The management fee for the CDB bond ETF is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [3] - The tracking error for the CDB bond ETF over the past two months is 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3] - The CDB bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year CDB Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to 3 years [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax policy change regarding the interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds is expected to have a limited impact on the investment returns of insurance companies, despite the restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on these bonds [1][3][4]. Tax Policy Changes - As of August 8, 2023, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, with rates set at 6% for self-managed institutions and 3% for asset management products [2][3]. - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [2]. Impact on Investment Returns - Analysts estimate that the impact on net investment yield and total investment yield will be minimal, with a potential decrease of only 2 to 3 basis points (BP) [1][3]. - The expected decline in yield for insurance companies' bond investments is projected to be around 9.6 BP based on a 6% VAT rate applied to a 10-year government bond with a coupon rate of 1.7% [3]. Long-term Implications - The short-term negative impact on profitability for insurance companies is estimated to be less than 1%, with potential for a slight increase in negative effects as existing bonds mature and are reallocated [4][5]. - The overall influence on the insurance sector's investment strategy is expected to remain limited, as bonds will continue to play a crucial role in asset allocation due to their stability and alignment with liability durations [6][7]. Asset Allocation Trends - Despite the tax changes, bonds are expected to maintain their status as a " ballast" in insurance asset allocation, with a continued focus on long-duration bonds [6]. - There is a potential shift towards equity investments, but this will be influenced by various factors including solvency and market conditions, rather than solely the tax adjustments [7]. Investment Management Strategies - The adjustment in tax policy may enhance the attractiveness of credit bonds and corporate bonds, which have been subject to tax previously, potentially leading to increased allocations in these areas [6]. - The operational structure of asset management products may lead to a preference for external management options due to lower VAT implications, although other factors such as income tax and management fees will also be considered [7].

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for bond investments among small and medium-sized banks reached a new high in July, with total bond trading exceeding 17.24 trillion yuan [1][2] - The increase in bond trading is attributed to insufficient loan demand, reduced credit issuance, pressure from larger banks, and restrictions on cross-regional operations [1][3] - Many small and medium-sized banks are actively engaging in financial investments, particularly in bonds, to expand their assets and income [1][4] Group 2 - The trading volumes for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showed a consistent upward trend in the first quarter, with a significant increase in July [2][3] - In the first half of the year, a notable portion of asset growth for some banks was achieved through bond investments, with one city commercial bank reporting a 500 billion yuan increase in assets, half of which came from bond investments [3][4] - The trend of increasing financial investment as a proportion of total assets among listed banks has been evident, with 30 banks reporting financial investments exceeding 30% of total assets [5][6] Group 3 - The investment income from bond trading has become a significant driver of revenue for banks, with many banks reporting substantial year-on-year growth in investment income [6][7] - The Central Bank acknowledged the importance of bond investments for banks and their role in supporting fiscal policy and the real economy [7][8] - There is a need for small and medium-sized banks to maintain a balance between investment returns and risk exposure, with the Central Bank monitoring high-risk institutions [8]

七月份债券市场呈现出异常活跃的态势，中小银行在现券交易领域表现尤为突出。银行间同业拆借中心数据显示，城农商行合计现券交易金额再次突破17万 亿元大关，达到约17.24万亿元，延续了领先于大行和股份行的强劲势头。 这一现象背后反映出多重因素的叠加影响。有效贷款需求不足导致信贷投放缩量，大型银行下沉业务对中小银行形成挤压，跨区域展业受到限制，这些因素 共同推动中小银行转向债券投资来扩容资产规模、提升收益水平。两家西部城农商行相关负责人透露，上半年特别是二季度的资产规模增量中，相当大部分 依靠债券投资实现。 现券交易热度持续升温 从年初至今的数据走势来看，城商行和农商行的现券买卖行为呈现高度一致性。城商行前七个月的现券买卖规模分别为64552.77亿元、74994.44亿元、 104174.19亿元、89224.96亿元、86214.04亿元、100534.48亿元、109175.2亿元。农商行同期规模则为44457.04亿元、45297.66亿元、66608.66亿元、66788.82 亿元、57406.44亿元、62537.76亿元、63199.86亿元。 两类机构的现券买卖规模在一季度呈现逐月攀升态势，二季度 ...

Core Insights - In July, the enthusiasm for bond trading among small and medium-sized banks reached a new high for the year, with total trading volume exceeding 17 trillion yuan, driven by factors such as insufficient loan demand and credit contraction [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Trading Performance - The total bond trading volume for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showed strong momentum, consistently exceeding that of large and joint-stock banks since March [3] - In the first seven months of the year, city commercial banks' bond trading volumes were 64,552.77 billion yuan, 74,994.44 billion yuan, 104,174.19 billion yuan, 89,224.96 billion yuan, 86,214.04 billion yuan, 100,534.48 billion yuan, and 109,175.2 billion yuan, while rural commercial banks' volumes were 44,457.04 billion yuan, 45,297.66 billion yuan, 66,608.66 billion yuan, 66,788.82 billion yuan, 57,406.44 billion yuan, 62,537.76 billion yuan, and 63,199.86 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Investment Trends - The proportion of financial investment assets in total assets for listed banks reached a near-high of 30%, with 30 banks exceeding this threshold [4][5] - Chongqing Bank saw a significant increase in financial investment assets, rising by 1,227 billion yuan to 3,859 billion yuan, with its proportion of total assets increasing by 7.71 percentage points to 41.42% [5][6] Group 3: Revenue Structure and Market Dynamics - The trend of "selling bonds to boost revenue" has emerged, with many banks reporting significant increases in investment income, with some banks seeing growth rates exceeding 100% [7][8] - The central bank emphasized the importance of bond investments for banks, noting that while they can support fiscal policy and the real economy, banks must maintain a balance between investment returns and risk [9]