期权隐含波动率

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农产品期权策略早报-20250516
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 09:15
Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: "Agricultural Product Options Strategy Morning Report" [1] - Core view: Oilseeds and oils agricultural products are in a range-bound consolidation, with oils and beans showing a weak trend, while agricultural by-products maintain a volatile trend. Soft commodities like sugar face resistance and decline, and cotton continues a weak rebound. Grains such as corn and starch gradually recover and then consolidate in a narrow range. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolios mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Market Overview - Futures market: The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product futures are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc [3] - Option factors: Volume and open interest PCR, pressure and support levels, and implied volatility of different agricultural product options are provided [4][5][6] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Oilseeds and Oils Options - Soybeans: Fundamental data shows changes in soybean meal transactions. The market has been in a high-level consolidation after a rebound. Options' implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The basis and inventory of soybean meal have changed. The market has shown a weakening trend. Options' implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a bear spread strategy for directional trading, a short neutral call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production data shows an increase. The market has been in a downward trend after a high-level decline. Options' implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a bearish market. Strategies include a short neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - Peanuts: Spot prices and oil mill data are presented. The market has been in a weak rebound after a long - term decline. Options' implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Agricultural By - product Options - Pigs: Pig price and supply - demand data are provided. The market has been in a range - bound consolidation. Options' implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a short neutral call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [11] - Eggs: Egg inventory data shows an increase. The market has been in a weak downward trend. Options' implied volatility is at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a bear spread strategy for directional trading and a short bearish call + put option combination [12] - Apples: Apple cold - storage inventory data shows a decrease. The market has been in a volatile decline after a high - level breakthrough. Options' implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a short neutral call + put option combination [12] - Jujubes: Jujube inventory data shows an increase. The market has been in a rebound after a decline. Options' implied volatility is at a low level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a bear spread strategy for directional trading, a short wide - straddle option combination, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13] Soft Commodity Options - Sugar: Sugar production, sales, and inventory data are presented. The market has been in a weakening trend after a high - level shock. Options' implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a range - bound market. Strategies include a short neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - Cotton: Cotton spinning and weaving factory operating rates and inventory data are provided. The market has been in a rebound after a decline. Options' implied volatility is at a low level, and the open interest PCR indicates a release of bearish forces. Strategies include a short neutral call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [14] Grain Options - Corn and starch: Corn sales progress data shows an increase. The market has been in a volatile rise and then a decline. Options' implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a range - bound market. Strategies include a short neutral call + put option combination [14]
短线上股指存冲高回落的可能性
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 12:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock indexes oscillated and corrected today. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1190.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 159.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The April social financing and credit data were mixed, with significant government bond issuance, but the financing demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The stock indexes have insufficient momentum for continuous upward movement, and there is a possibility of a short - term pullback after reaching a high and repeated oscillations [3]. - In the second quarter, the external tariff war conflict has eased. The recent "order - grabbing" in Sino - US trade is expected to improve external demand to some extent. The continuous efforts of internal policies can also provide good support. Currently, the corporate profit differentiation among industries is obvious. The acceleration of the public fund new regulations promotes the aggregation of funds to large - cap weighted stocks. It is expected that the performance of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 will be stronger than that of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - Generally speaking, the domestic policy is clear in supporting the economy and stabilizing the stock market. Coupled with the easing of external risk factors, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. It is expected that the stock indexes will oscillate and strengthen in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options is within the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indexes, a bull spread portfolio can be used to layout the medium - and long - term upward market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On May 15, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.50% to 2.803; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.84% to 4.011; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.86% to 4.047; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.91% to 3907.20; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.68% to 6057.04; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.33% to 5.721; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.30% to 2.286; the GEM ETF fell 2.04% to 2.012; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.36% to 2.688; the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.49% to 2740.30; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.41% to 1.05; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.45% to 1.02 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the Shanghai 50ETF option was 83.83 (73.37 the previous day), and the position PCR was 119.37 (129.62 the previous day) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai 50ETF option in May 2025 was 13.98%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 19.67% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Shanghai 50ETF Option**: Charts include the Shanghai 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [9][11][13][17]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Option**: Charts cover the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [20]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [23]. - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [37]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [50]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [62]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Option**: Charts include the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [74]. - **GEM ETF Option**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [88]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [97]. - **Shanghai 50 Index Option**: Charts include the Shanghai 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [110]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [124]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [127].
能源化工期权策略早报-20250515
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 06:44
能源化工期权 2025-05-15 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要:能源类:原油、LPG;聚烯烃类期权:聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯;聚酯类期 权:对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片;碱化工类:烧碱、纯碱;其他能源化工类:橡胶等。 策略上:构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2507 | 478 | 0 ...
农产品期权策略早报-20250515
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 06:43
农产品期权 2025-05-15 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要:油料油脂类农产品区间盘整,油脂类,豆类偏弱行情,农副产品维持震荡行情,软商品 白糖上升受阻回落,棉花延续弱势反弹形态,谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上:构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2507 | 4,183 | 18 | ...
期权隐含波动率表现相对平稳
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-14 01:01
Market Overview - A-shares opened high but closed low on May 13, with total trading volume at 1.33 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Over 3200 stocks declined, while sectors such as port shipping, photovoltaic, banking, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and CSI 300 Index rose, while other indices fell [1] Options Market Activity - Total options trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 5.19 million contracts, down from 5.39 million contracts the previous day [1] - Total open interest increased to 8.91 million contracts, up from 8.16 million contracts [1] - The trading volume of the SSE 50 ETF options decreased by 31.53%, while open interest increased by 10.42% [1] - The SSE 50 ETF options traded 674,400 contracts, down from 985,000 contracts the previous day, with open interest at 1.47 million contracts, up from 1.33 million contracts [1] Options Position Changes - For the May contracts, a total of 75,100 contracts were added, with call options increasing by 32,900 contracts and put options by 42,200 contracts [1] - The increase in both call and put options occurred in the shallow out-of-the-money positions, with a broader increase in call options, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1] CSI 300 Options Performance - The trading volume for CSI 300 options also showed a decline, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's CSI 300 ETF options down by 32.85% and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's down by 23.96% [2] - Open interest for CSI 300 ETF options increased, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange up by 11.92% and the Shanghai Stock Exchange up by 9.84% [2] - The total increase in open interest for the Shanghai Stock Exchange's CSI 300 ETF options was 53,400 contracts, with call options increasing by 28,200 contracts and put options by 25,200 contracts [2] Volatility Analysis - Implied volatility remained stable, with the SSE 50 ETF at 12.69% as of May 13 [3] - Historical volatility for the SSE 50 ETF was 19.02%, while the CSI 300 Index was at 22.06% [3] - Overall, the A-share market showed a low volatility environment, with both call and put options increasing in shallow out-of-the-money positions, suggesting a short-term market consolidation [3]
金融期权策略早报-20250509
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 08:00
金融期权 2025/05/09 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要: (1)股市短评:上证综指数、深成指数、中小创指均小幅波动。 (2)金融期权波动性分析:金融期权隐含波动率在历史均值偏下水平波动。 (3)金融期权策略与建议:对于ETF期权来说,适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略,垂直价差组合策略;对于 股指期权来说,适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1:金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) | (亿元) | ( ...
金融期权隐含波动率走低
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-07 09:45
5月6日,A股高开高走,上证指数收涨1.13%,创业板指数收涨1.97%,科创板指数收涨1.39%,沪深市场成交 1.36万亿元,较前一交易日小幅放量。个股涨多跌少,超5000只个股上涨,市场整体氛围偏多。板块方面,金属材 料、家电、小金属、通信设备等板块涨幅居前,仅银行板块小幅收跌。当日,期权市场成交量大幅回升,持仓量稳步 攀升。沪深两市及中金所期权总成交494.17万张,较前一交易日的331.49万张增加49.08%;总持仓796.78万张,较前一 交易日的702.17万张增加13.47%。 整体上,指数高开高走,期权隐含波动率回落。此外,认购、认沽多在浅虚值部位增持,且认沽增持力度更大, 预计市场短期维持偏强走势。操作上,建议波动率策略离场,同时小仓位布局牛市价差多头组合。 来源:期货日报 作者:彭鲸桥 沪深300期权成交量提升近80%,持仓量稳步提升。成交方面,深交所沪深300ETF期权增加95.91%,上交所沪深 300ETF期权增加79.51%,中金所沪深300股指期权增加79.12%。持仓方面,深交所沪深300ETF期权增加17.71%,上交 所沪深300ETF期权增加13.73%,中金所沪深3 ...
农产品期权策略早报-20250429
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 07:04
农产品期权 2025-04-29 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要:油料油脂类农产品区间盘整,油脂类,豆类偏弱行情,农副产品维持震荡行情,软商品 白糖上升受阻回落,棉花延续弱势反弹形态,谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上:构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2507 | 4,185 | -36 ...
金融期权周报:隐波下降,市场窄幅震荡-20250428
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:50
Group 1: Trading Volume and Open Interest of Financial Options - The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options this week was 769,600 contracts, a -31.45% decrease from the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.95, higher than the previous week and the historical average. The put - call open interest ratio last week was 0.92, also higher than the previous week and the historical average [2]. - The average daily trading volume of Huatai Berich 300ETF options was 734,200 contracts, and the average daily open interest was 1,169,100 contracts [2]. - The average daily trading volume of Southern China Securities 500ETF options was 1,023,300 contracts, and the average daily open interest was 1,100,800 contracts [2]. - The average daily trading volume of ChinaAMC SSE STAR 50ETF options was 579,500 contracts, and the average daily open interest was 1,654,100 contracts [2]. - The average daily trading volume of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 45,000 contracts, and the average daily open interest was 116,500 contracts [2]. - The average daily trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,024,000 contracts, and the average daily open interest was 1,349,200 contracts [2]. - The average daily trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 53,900 lots, and the average daily open interest was 164,400 lots [2]. - The average daily trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 162,300 lots, and the average daily open interest was 208,100 lots [2]. Group 2: Volatility of Options - As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 15.80%, a 0.88% decrease from a week ago. The implied volatility of 50ETF options was 14.35%, a 0.49% decrease from a week ago. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 25.20%, a 0.34% decrease from a week ago [3]. - The Nanhua 50ETF option volatility index was 14.98, the Nanhua CSI 300 option volatility index was 18.26, and the Nanhua CSI 1000 option volatility index was 26.2 [3]. Group 3: Overall Market Situation - The financial market as a whole maintained a volatile pattern this week. The closing prices of the 5 trading days remained almost unchanged, and the intraday amplitude was relatively small. The trading volume hovered around 1 trillion. The implied volatility of options continued to decline. Currently, the implied volatility of SSE 50 and CSI 300 has fallen to a relatively low level in history, while that of CSI 1000 is at a medium - level in history [4].
“五一”前后50ETF期权的波动率规律分析及策略设计
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-04-28 01:10
问题背景 "五一"假期期间境内休市而境外市场仍在交易,投资者面临"无法即时对冲"的风险。期权隐含波动率(VIX)成为衡量假期不确定性的 关键指标。对50ETF期权而言,交易者普遍认为"节前买保护、节后消化"是经验法则,但这种印象缺乏系统量化验证。本研究希望回答 两大问题:一是波动率在"五一"前后具体呈现怎样的时间结构,二是能否据此设计可行的波动率交易策略。探索这些问题不仅能丰富国 内节假日效应文献,还可为期权做市商、对冲基金与量化交易员提供优化 Vega 暴露与 Gamma 管理的实证依据。 表为"五一"前后波动率规律的解释 上表将"五一"前后相对交易日分为五大区段:节前第一阶段(T-5→T-4)、节前第二阶段(T-4→T-2)、节前第三阶段(T-2→T-1)、节 后第一阶段(T+1→T+2)、节后第二阶段(T+3→T+5)。其中,节前阶段先现小幅抬升,从第5日均值19.6升至第4日19.7,标志风险溢 价初显;随后在第3日到第2日,隐含波动率快速回落至18.9,反映卖方平仓与套利流动性入场;最后一个交易日(T-1)跌至全周期最低 18.8,说明做市商通过降价吸纳Gamma敞口,平滑假期前头寸。假期结束后的首 ...