Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will be in a range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the balance between continuous favorable domestic policies and the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2606, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is range - bound oscillation, with the core logic being the contrast between continuous policy incentives and the Middle - East geopolitical crisis [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that although the Middle - East geopolitical risk has cooled to some extent after the US proposed an end - conflict plan to Iran, there is still high uncertainty. In the long - term, domestic policy support for the economic fundamentals provides support for the stock index. However, due to the cautious behavior of market funds, the stock index is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All stock indices fluctuated and closed higher today. On March 24th, the US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, indicating a cooling of Middle - East geopolitical risks, but the final result remains highly uncertain [3]. - The market will focus on the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Resumed navigation can ease the global energy supply crisis, reduce the risk of macro - recession, and boost the stock market's risk appetite [3]. - In the medium to long term, domestic policies are continuously favorable for the economic fundamentals. The macro - economy has strong resilience, which supports the total economic demand and structurally promotes domestic demand expansion and technological innovation. There is still support for stock indices [3]. - Currently, the trading volume of the stock market has not significantly increased, and market funds remain cautious due to the high subsequent uncertainty of Middle - East geopolitical risks. It is expected that the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. - In the options market, the PCR of open interest has dropped rapidly, and the at - the - money implied volatility of options has risen rapidly, reflecting strong market panic. Given the existing support for stock indices, strategies such as bull spreads or covered calls can be used [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Relevant Charts for Different Options 3.1.1 Shanghai 50ETF Options - Charts include the Shanghai 50ETF trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [5][6]. 3.1.2 SSE 300ETF Options - Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [7][8]. 3.1.3 Shenzhen 300ETF Options - Charts involve the Shenzhen 300ETF trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [18][19]. 3.1.4 CSI 300 Index Options - Charts consist of the CSI 300 index trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [30][31]. 3.1.5 CSI 1000 Index Options - Charts include the CSI 1000 index trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [42][43]. 3.1.6 SSE 500ETF Options - Charts cover the SSE 500ETF trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [52][53]. 3.1.7 Shenzhen 500ETF Options - Charts involve the Shenzhen 500ETF trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [64][65]. 3.1.8 Shanghai 50 Index Options - Charts consist of the Shanghai 50 index trend, historical volatility, option open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [75][76].

Group 1: Hot News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the afternoon of March 12, approving the government work report, the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, the national economic and social development plan for 2026, the central budget for 2026, and passing the Ecological Environment Code, the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, and the National Development Planning Law [2] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since taking office, stating that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and will open new fronts if necessary, calling on neighboring countries to close military bases used by the United States. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, significantly reducing the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. The IEA said that the conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and it is expected that global oil supply will plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March [2] - As of the week ending March 12, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventories increased for eight consecutive weeks, social inventories increased for ten consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased for three consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, an increase of 219,900 tons or 12.69% from the previous week; rebar social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons or 2.63% from the previous week; rebar apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, an increase of 785,800 tons or 80% from the previous week [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange decided to adjust the price limit range and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the price limit range is 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the price limit range is 20%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 21%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 22% [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, coking coal, apples, asphalt, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - The night session performance of various commodity sectors shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.41%, the precious metals sector rose 29.57%, the oilseeds and fats sector rose 8.29%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 8.50%, the energy sector rose 7.37%, the chemical sector rose 14.45%, the grain sector rose 1.00%, the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.54%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.46%, and the non-ferrous metals sector rose 23.40% [4][5] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes shows that the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a monthly decline of 0.81%, and an annual increase of 4.04%. Other equity indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and German DAX also had different levels of daily, monthly, and annual changes. In the fixed-income category, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had positive daily changes. In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, and other commodities also showed different trends [7] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, and others, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premium of the stock market [8]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The US President Trump stated that the war against Iran would "soon" end but "not" this week. If Iran takes any action to block oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, the US will launch a "20 - fold more severe strike" against it. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the action against Iran "has not ended". Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Garib Abadi said that Iran's current priority is only "resolute defense" and "the end of the war is in Iran's hands" [2] - In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%. China's imports and exports to the US in the first two months were 609.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU both increased by about 20% [2] - The exchanges took action again to prevent market risks. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued notices to adjust the price limit ranges and trading margin ratios of relevant contracts for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and butadiene rubber futures [2] - From March 2nd to March 8th, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.3179 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 396,000 tons. The inventory scale rebounded slightly, and the current inventory is at the second - highest level since the beginning of the year [2] - According to the China Cotton Information Network, based on the spring sowing intention survey, the cotton - planting policy direction in Xinjiang is clear, but implementation measures vary by region. The cotton - planting area for the new year will be slightly reduced month - on - month. The total output calculated based on the three - year average yield per unit area will slightly decrease. The national total output will decrease by 40,000 tons to 7.24 million tons. The annual total supply will decrease by 9 tons to 1,480 tons. The total demand will increase by 70,000 tons to 885,000 tons. The ending inventory for this year will decrease by 160,000 tons to 595,000 tons [3] 2. Key Focus - The key focus includes urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, crude oil, and plastic [4] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity sectors shows that the non - metallic building materials sector rose by 2.24%, the precious metals sector by 30.75%, the oilseeds and oils sector by 7.39%, the soft commodities sector by 2.53%, the non - ferrous metals sector by 24.61%, the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector by 8.80%, the energy sector by 7.16%, the chemical sector by 12.84%, the grain sector by 1.04%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector by 2.64% [4] 4. Category Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 | 0.65, 0.64, 1.28 | - 0.95, - 1.89, - 0.76 | 3.89, - 1.63, 0.97 | | | CSI 500 | 1.58 | - 2.87 | 12.65 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.21 | - 1.42 | - 0.94 | | | Hang Seng Index | 2.17 | - 2.52 | 1.29 | | | German DAX | 2.39 | - 5.20 | - 2.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 2.88 | - 7.82 | 7.77 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.59 | - 4.57 | 4.84 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.00 | - 0.08 | 0.41 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | 0.20 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 2.48 | 11.31 | 16.48 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.00 | 27.18 | 48.70 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.98 | - 1.67 | 20.19 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.84 | 3.38 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.73 | - 3.31 | 17.43 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.23 | 1.33 | 0.69 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 28.40 | 70.57 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly consolidate in a range. Although there are short - term disturbances such as the sharp fluctuations of silver and the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the long - term upward trend of the stock index is supported by policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2163.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp fluctuations of silver disturbed the market sentiment, and the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market increased, resulting in a continuous contraction of the trading volume of the stock market. In the short term, the macro - economic indicators have weakened, and the pressure of "weak reality" has increased. Coupled with the weakening of risk preference caused by silver and the clear signal of risk control from the regulatory authorities, the stock market sentiment is cautious. However, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals are short - term disturbances from external factors, and the repair of the stock market risk preference will eventually return to its own fundamentals. The favorable expectations on the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic for the long - term upward movement of the stock index [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating of the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock market risk preference is cautious, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the long - run, the logic of the stock index's upward movement is relatively reliable due to favorable policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market. However, in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment [5] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "relatively strong", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation", and the core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "relatively strong", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". Yesterday, the stock indexes fluctuated and pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2194.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp decline of silver weakened the market risk preference, making stock market funds more cautious and increasing the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market, resulting in continuous shrinkage of trading volume. In the long - run, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged. But in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of policy benefits and the flow of funds [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the long - term, the logic of the upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid due to favorable policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds. In the short - term, due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the "weak reality" pressure appears, and the willingness of the capital side to take profits and leave the market has increased, resulting in a decrease in trading volume. [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic. [1] 2. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2503.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.4 billion yuan from the previous day. In the long - term, the upward logic of the stock index is solid. In the short - term, there is "weak reality" pressure, and the capital side has a stronger willingness to take profits and leave the market. As the sentiment in the commodity market recovers, the risk preference of the stock market returns to its fundamental logic. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the short - term, the upward driving force of the stock market is still weak, and the capital side is difficult to form a consensus. However, in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the continuous inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, and the logic of the stock index's upward movement in the long - run is relatively reliable [5] Group 3: Summary of Key Points by Category 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the valuation has increased rapidly, the stock index is oscillating and consolidating, and the demand is rising [1] 2. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "strong - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2565.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan from the previous day. With the stabilization of gold and commodity prices, the resource cycle sector rebounded, and the risk preference of the stock market was restored. This rebound is a technical correction of the previous over - decline caused by the weakening of risk preference due to the sharp correction in the commodity market. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is still shrinking, indicating that the upward driving force of the stock market is still weak. Due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators and the "weak reality" pressure, combined with the fact that the increase in the stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation side, the willingness of the capital side to take profits and leave the market has increased, and it is difficult for the capital side to form a consensus in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - economic indicators show strong resilience, combined with positive policy expectations and the trend of capital inflow, which form the supporting force for stock index futures. After the holiday, as market liquidity returns and policy benefits further ferment, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed an oscillatory consolidation trend, with relatively large adjustment ranges for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300. The basis discount depth of the four stock index futures varieties deepened, and all the main contracts maintained a futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts were IH at - 6.1, IF at - 30.1, IC at - 102.8, and IM at - 159.1 [4]. - The A - share market as a whole oscillated and consolidated last week. Although the Shanghai Composite Index failed to extend its nine - day consecutive rise, the overall market performance remained stable. The commercial aerospace sector, where funds were most concentrated, had a significant adjustment but maintained good order. The emerging robot sector did not have a very negative impact on the commercial aerospace sector. The non - ferrous metals sector opened lower due to short - term sharp fluctuations in futures but quickly recovered and some leading varieties hit new highs. Market hotspots were spreading rather than simply switching, and the trading volume remained above 2 trillion for three consecutive days, indicating substantial support from trading volume [4]. Comprehensive Analysis - In terms of macro - economy, the manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range [5]. - Overseas, on January 3, 2026 (local time), the US military launched a military strike on Venezuela, which had limited impact on the equity market and commodities in the short term [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is oscillating with a slight upward bias. For IH2603, it is expected to be oscillating in the short - and medium - term, and showing a slight upward trend intraday. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the medium - term view is oscillating, with an overall view of oscillating with a slight upward bias [1][5]. - In the short term, the stock index will maintain range - bound oscillations. Although it faced technical resistance when approaching the previous high and pulled back after rising, in the long run, the positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds will support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Slightly upward | Oscillating with a slight upward bias | Unchanged positive policy expectations and net inflow of funds [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Slightly upward; **Medium - term View**: Oscillating; **Reference View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias - **Core Logic**: The stock indexes oscillated and declined yesterday. The total trading volume of the stock market was 2157.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.4 billion yuan from the previous day. As the stock index approached the previous high, it faced technical resistance and pulled back after rising. In the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of capital entry. In the long term, positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5].