投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡小幅上涨。由于政策利率的锚定效应显现，市场利率继续上行的空 间受限，因此国债期货触底回升。不过短期内国债期货的上行动能预计有所不足。从政策面来看，货 币政策以结构性宽松为主，侧重在提振消费与扶持科技创新相关领域，全面降息的可能性有所下降。 从资金偏好来看，近期股市风险偏好持续上升，赚钱效应吸引资金投入股市获取更高收益率，购买国 债的资金需求有所下降。总的来说，短期内国债期货维持底部震荡运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡上涨。目前国债期货上行动力不足主要在 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各国债期货均震荡整理，小幅下跌。从货币政策角度看，8 月 LPR 维持不变，央行 强调未来要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，重点在结构性宽松 ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of government bond futures is that they will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased. The TL2509 variety is expected to oscillate in the short and medium - term and show a slightly weaker oscillation trend during the day [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that government bond futures oscillated and slightly rebounded yesterday. As market interest rates continue to rise, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, limiting the upward space of market interest rates, which means government bond futures have strong support. From the perspective of monetary policy, the focus of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the future is on structural loosening, and the possibility of comprehensive loosening has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has continued to rise recently, and the profit - making effect in the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying government bonds [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term view of treasury bond futures is weak - side oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The overall view is oscillation. The reason is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillation, and the intraday view is weak - side oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak - side oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. On one hand, future policy will focus on structural easing, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report emphasizes "refinement" and "structure", indicating that future monetary policy will introduce structural easing policies in areas such as inclusive small and micro financial services, financial support for scientific and technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market has been rising recently, and the money - making effect of the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying treasury bonds. However, due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, and the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited. In general, treasury bond futures will operate in a weak - side oscillation in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - On August 15, 2025, stock indices showed an oscillating upward trend, with significant gains in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The stock market trading volume has remained above 2 trillion yuan for multiple days, indicating optimistic market sentiment and a continuous rise in investors' risk appetite [3]. - Policy - side positive expectations strongly support the stock indices. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies are conducive to a moderate recovery of the price index, the repair of listed companies' profit margins, and the positive cycle of the "residents' consumption - corporate profits - employees' salaries" chain, leading to an increase in the expectation of a better macro - economic outlook [3]. - The balance of margin trading funds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong confidence of leveraged investors in the market. The continuous entry of patient capital such as social security and insurance funds has also promoted the continuous recovery of long - term confidence in the stock market [3]. - In the short term, there are strong positive expectations on the domestic policy side, and external risk factors have temporarily eased. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, and the stock indices will be mainly oscillating upward in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish view [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 15, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.37% to 2.965; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.92% to 4.295; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.91% to 4.432; CSI 300 Index rose 0.70% to 4202.35; CSI 1000 Index rose 2.02% to 7117.50; 500ETF (SSE) rose 2.21% to 6.658; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 2.38% to 2.663; GEM ETF rose 2.58% to 2.509; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.44% to 3.035; SSE 50 Index rose 0.12% to 2832.88; Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.40% to 1.16; E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.62% to 1.13 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: Various option products have different volume PCR and open interest PCR values, and most of them have changed compared with the previous trading day [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: Different option products have different implied volatilities of at - the - money options in different months and 30 - trading - day historical volatilities of the underlying assets [7][8]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [9][10][11]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 300ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [20][21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend of SZSE 300ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [33][34][35]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the trend of CSI 300 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [46][47][48]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the trend of CSI 1000 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [59][60][61]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 500ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [70][71][72]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend of SZSE 500ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [83][84][85]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include the trend of GEM ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [94][95][96]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the trend of Shenzhen 100ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [107][108][109]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the trend of SSE 50 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [120][121][122]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [133][134][135]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [136][137][138].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the stock index will show an upward trend in the medium - term and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term. Policy support and positive expectations are the main driving forces, although there may be short - term technical consolidation needs [1][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is upward. Last Friday, the stock indexes were in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1736.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.2 billion yuan from the previous day. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, the policy support expectation still exists. Policy support and positive expectations drive the recovery of stock market risk appetite. Considering the large gains of some stocks and the approaching deadline of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, there may be short - term technical consolidation, but the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated within a narrow range. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1736.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The economic indicators in the first half of the year showed strong resilience, and the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, but the expectation of policy support still exists. Policy support and the expectation of anti - involution policy benefits have promoted the recovery of the stock market's risk appetite, combined with the suspension of overseas uncertainty risks, jointly driving the recovery of the stock market's risk appetite. Considering that some stocks have achieved significant gains, there is a need for technical consolidation in the market outlook. With the approaching deadline of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, there is a possibility of consolidation and accumulation of momentum for stock indices in the short term. However, in the long term, the upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged. Currently, the risk appetite of the stock market is relatively positive, and it is expected that stock indices will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. Since the implied volatility of options is currently in the normal range and stock indices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish view [3] Summary by Directory 1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 8, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.38% to 2.910; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.24% to 4.183; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.25% to 4.315; CSI 300 Index fell 0.24% to 4104.97; CSI 1000 Index fell 0.35% to 6838.13; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.17% to 6.397; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.16% to 2.556; ChiNext ETF fell 0.34% to 2.312; Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.24% to 2.893; SSE 50 Index fell 0.33% to 2789.17; STAR 50ETF fell 1.44% to 1.10; E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.38% to 1.07 [5] - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR data of various options on August 8, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6] - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are presented, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8] 2 Related Charts - **50ETF Options**: Include charts of 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [9][10][11] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [20][21] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [23][24] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [36][37] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [49][50] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [62][63] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [75][76] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [90][91] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [101][102] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [114][115] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [128][129] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [131][132]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market has a relatively strong risk appetite, and stock indices are oscillating upwards. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1518.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a high - level risk appetite among stock market investors [3]. - The economy showed strong resilience in the second quarter, reducing the short - term expectation of policy intensification. The subsequent incremental positive factors need to wait until October, so the positive policy drive has weakened recently [3]. - Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds have a need to lock in profits. Therefore, the stock indices have a short - term need for technical consolidation. However, external risk factors are easing, domestic economic data shows resilience, the stock market risk appetite is at a high level, and there are few negative factors. In the short term, the stock indices are more likely to rise than fall. Overall, the stock indices are upward - trending in the long - term and will mainly oscillate within a range in the short - term [3]. - The implied volatility of options is currently in the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 4, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.49% to 2.890; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.46% to 4.152; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.38% to 4.279; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.39% to 4070.70; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% to 6739.69; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.76% to 6.335; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.08% to 2.537; the GEM ETF rose 0.43% to 2.313; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.31% to 2.886; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% to 2769.39; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.19% to 1.10; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.22% to 1.08 [5]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different ETF and index options have different volume and open interest PCR values, and most of them have changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 106.66 (previous day: 109.66), and the open interest PCR was 89.70 (previous day: 84.31) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of different options are also presented. For instance, the implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options' August 2025 at - the - money options was 13.67%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 9.69% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. For example, for SSE 50ETF options, there are charts showing the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, etc. [9][10][11]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.36% to surpass 3500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day was 934.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3100 stocks declining [1] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF, Boshi (511130), opened lower and fell by 24 basis points during the session, with a trading volume of nearly 2.5 billion yuan and a turnover rate exceeding 30%. The ETF has seen a net inflow of 274 million yuan over the past five days [1][2] - Huatai Futures indicated that the central bank's continuous net injection has maintained a loose market liquidity, leading to a widening yield spread, reflecting a certain expectation for short-term liquidity easing [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported June inflation data, with the CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and the PPI declining by 3.6%, indicating weak overall performance that is unfavorable for endogenous growth in domestic demand [1] - Baocheng Futures noted that the current weak inflation performance and insufficient endogenous growth momentum in domestic demand, combined with external demand being susceptible to tariff impacts, suggest a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations [1]