Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.37% at 3,012 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,563 yuan/ton [1] - After the first round of Sino-US trade negotiations and the warming of macro sentiment, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend recently, boosting the overall energy sector. However, the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the crude oil market has not reversed, and resistance may start to appear after continuous rebounds [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Fuel Oil - The reduction of tariffs is beneficial to trade and shipping demand, and there is additional inventory replenishment demand during the 90-day suspension period, which is expected to drive the improvement of marine fuel oil consumption. Low-sulfur fuel oil, with more concentrated downstream demand in the marine fuel segment, may be more sensitive [2] - After the entry into force of the Mediterranean ECA in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially replaced, refineries also reduced the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil through product adjustment. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volume also supported the Asian market. However, in the medium term, the low-sulfur fuel oil market still faces the contradiction of demand share replacement and excess capacity [2] - As summer approaches, the demand for power plants in the Middle East and other regions will gradually increase. Saudi Arabia, the largest consumer, has shown an increasing trend in fuel oil procurement. According to shipping schedule data, Saudi Arabia's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in May are expected to reach 960,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons. However, OPEC began to accelerate production increase in May, and power plants can use more domestic raw materials (crude oil, fuel oil, etc.), so it is not advisable to have too high expectations for the peak-season demand increase in the power generation segment [2] Group 3: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term volatile and upward, medium-term pressure still exists [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term volatile and upward, medium-term pressure still exists [3] - Cross-variety: No strategy [3] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-05-08 埃及燃料油进口逐渐增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.05%，报2888元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.72%，报3399 元/吨。 原油价格超跌后昨日反弹，反映不确定性因素较多，短期趋势不明朗，对下游FU、LU价格指引有限。 就燃料油自身基本面来看，虽然前期现货端紧张的矛盾已缓解，炼厂与船燃端需求面临利空。但随着夏季临近， 中东、埃及等地电厂终端需求将迎来季节性提升。其中，埃及预计成为今年重要的消费增量来源，由于国内天然 气产量下滑，埃及将使用更多燃料油来作为替代发电原料。目前埃及需求已经有明显增长的迹象，参考船期数据， 5月份埃及高硫燃料油进口量预计达到61万吨，同比去年提升16万吨。参考去年季节性规律，到夏季高峰时埃及进 口可能还有20-30万吨/月的增长空间，对于高硫油市场来说是潜在的利好驱动。 低硫燃料油方面，近期市场结构呈现边际好转的迹象，现货贴水、月差与裂解价差回升，西区套利船货供应边际 收紧，短期供应压力有限，但中期矛盾尚未逆转，5月欧洲新增ECA区域将对船燃端消费形成进一步冲击。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.37% at 3,310 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.75% at 3,777 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent reaching around $75 per barrel, strengthening the cost support for fuel oil, causing both FU and LU to follow the upward trend [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, although the market structure has adjusted recently due to the decline in refinery demand, there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil situation will limit the supply growth of high-sulfur fuel oil. With the approaching summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other regions will see a seasonal increase. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high-sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the driving force is relatively limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil, and the market structure remains stable. In the medium term, its market share is squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and it may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.37% at 3,310 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.75% at 3,777 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent reaching around $75 per barrel, strengthening the cost support for fuel oil, causing both FU and LU to follow the upward trend [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, although the market structure has adjusted recently due to the decline in refinery demand, there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil situation will limit the supply growth of high-sulfur fuel oil. With the approaching summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other regions will see a seasonal increase. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high-sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the driving force is relatively limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil, and the market structure remains stable. In the medium term, its market share is squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and it may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate, with short-term adjustments and support at the bottom [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate, with a bearish outlook in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: no specific strategy [2] - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices [2] - Spot-futures: no specific strategy [2] - Options: no specific strategy [2]