Capex Boom & Economic Growth - Business equipment production rose 23% in Q1, and GDP accounts showed a 24% increase [4] - Q2 showed a near 11% increase, resulting in a 17% annualized gain over two quarters, the largest since 1997 (excluding the pandemic) [4][5] - The extension of tax policy incentivized companies to invest in capital [6] - Expects capex trajectory to remain strong, fostering upward pressure on wages [7] - Sees potential for a "blue wages boom" with non-supervisory production workers earning bigger paychecks [7] - The administration's outlook is based on 3% growth, considered doable due to productivity trends and labor force participation [18][20] - Expects AI boom to generate quicker payoffs from capital investment [20] - If growth reaches 3%, there could be an additional $4 trillion not counted by the CBO, potentially alleviating deficit concerns [21] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs have not had the expected effect on price data, with most of the tariff being absorbed in the margin [12] - The majority of the tariff has been absorbed in the margin [12] - The US could be collecting $300 billion in tariffs, but inflation data has been minimal [13] - Energy costs and capex tend to be disinflationary, offsetting potential lingering effects from tariffs [14] International Trade & Investment - Japan will commit over $500 billion (550 billion) to the US through an innovation fund [16]

New report showing US Latino GDP reaching $4 trillion dollars. It's about the same size as India if ranked as a world economy. It would come in at number five.The results are based on 2023 data from the Latino Donor Collaborative. Salt Trillo is here. He's the chairman of the Latino Donor Collaborative and founder of the Trillo Group.Uh he joins us with part one of the report. More data is going to be released this fall. Let's talk about the data we know about, but I'm also curious maybe you'll tease us abo ...

海外宏观：关税战对经济冲击弱化，通胀开始抬头。6 月全球制造业 PMI 指数 录得 50.3%，重回景气区间。我们认为关税战对于经济的第一轮冲击正在弱 化。其主要原因在于随着美国豁免了对外的"对等关税"，并和各国关税谈判 持续进行，市场主体对于过高关税的担忧逐步降温，并恢复了较多的经贸活动。 全球贸易也有所恢复，典型出口国韩国、越南出口表现均较好。美国"滞胀" 预期降温，但是关税对通胀影响初步显现。我们预计随着关税传导效应进一步 显现，未来几个月内美国通胀还会继续上升，这也将降低美联储降息概率。 国内宏观：上半年运行良好，但边际变化值得关注。二季度中国 GDP 实际同 比增长 5.2%，表现良好。值得注意的是，二季度名义 GDP 同比增速只有 3.9% ， 较一季度下降了 0.6 个百分点，降幅较大，是 2023 年以来的最低增速。G DP 名义增速与实际增速之间的差值进一步扩大，这会导致企业和居民对经济的体 感受到负面影响。由于实际 GDP 表现较好，所以我们认为政策的定力会增强， 预计短期内不急于推出大规模经济刺激政策，政策节奏会视三季度经济走势而 定。6 月份经济的边际变化值得关注：第一是消费走弱。第二 ...

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year and 5-year loans remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of July 21, 2025 [1] - The recent stability in policy interest rates has kept the LPR pricing foundation unchanged, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate serving as the new pricing anchor [2] - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, with the average net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, a decrease of 9 basis points from the end of the previous year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [4] - The high proportion of time deposits continues to limit the overall downward space for deposit costs, despite a significant reduction in deposit rates [4] Group 3 - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in Q3 or Q4, with expectations that the LPR may follow suit [5] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to slow down export growth, necessitating a focus on domestic demand [5] - The low nominal interest rates combined with persistently low PPI are leading to higher real financing costs, which may impact effective credit demand [5]

Group 1 - GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, but this does not necessarily indicate economic recovery [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year but fell by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating persistent weak demand [2] - Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, marking 32 consecutive months of decline, which is a concerning economic indicator [4] Group 2 - Total import and export value increased by 1.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, potentially as a response to tariff battles [4] - Real estate prices in second and third-tier cities fell by 3.0% and 4.6% year-on-year for new homes, and 5.8% and 6.7% for second-hand homes, indicating a struggling property market [4] - Land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities increased by 24.5% year-on-year, suggesting some activity in the real estate sector despite overall declines [6] Group 3 - The divergence between GDP growth and other core indicators suggests underlying structural issues in the economy [6] - The focus on maintaining GDP growth has led to increased debt and a widening gap between supply and demand, indicating inefficiencies in the economic model [8] - The current economic policies are seen as superficial, failing to address the root causes of structural problems, particularly in the real estate sector [9]

RT Token Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal)🏦⛓️ @ethereum is standing on business:🔹 TVL $270.1B🔹 Stablecoin supply $137.2B🔹 Active loans $27.3B🔹 DEX volume $478.1B YTD🔹 GDP $4.1B YTD🔹 ETH staked $120.4B🔹 ETH liquid staked $39.3B https://t.co/ay4QvKfCbo ...

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial, as markets react negatively to its perceived lack thereof [1][2] - The current Fed Funds rate of 45% is considered too high, especially with inflation at 25% and GDP growth slowing [3][5] - Lowering rates prematurely could lead to inflation [1] Private Credit Market - Private credit markets are experiencing substantial growth, projected to reach $10 to $15 trillion in a decade, growing at 20% annually [10] - Asset-based lending (ABL) within private credit is still in its early stages but poised for significant expansion [9] - Private equity's growth will drive the expansion of direct lending [8] - Banks are increasingly participating in private credit, buying and selling private loans [11] Banks & Private Credit - Banks are expected to play a significant role in financing debt related to private credit deals [13] - Banks may develop secondary markets to provide liquidity for listed private debt products [15] Democratization of Private Credit - Concerns exist regarding the suitability of private credit investments for retail investors [16] - Private credit offers attractive risk-adjusted returns compared to public equity markets, with historical net returns of 11-12% and half the volatility of the equity market which generates a 7% historical return [17] - Wealth management divisions of major banks vet managers and provide recommendations for private credit investments [19] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs have not significantly impacted prices, with exporters and importers absorbing the costs [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Egypt's Finance Minister announced a primary surplus of 3.6% of GDP for the fiscal year 2024-25 [1]

Economic Overview - The first quarter GDP figures for various countries have been released, with the US at $7.32 trillion, Japan at $1.02 trillion, and China at $4.44 trillion, indicating China's position as the second-largest economy globally [1][8]. - The US GDP is perceived as "overstated" or "inflated," primarily due to financial credit mechanisms and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which have global implications [4][6]. US Economic Conditions - Despite a high GDP, the US faces significant internal challenges, including rising inflation and a shrinking economy, with a 0.3% contraction in the first quarter [6][8]. - The cost of living in the US has surged, with prices for basic goods, such as eggs, reaching up to $8, highlighting the disparity between GDP figures and actual living conditions [6][20]. Comparison with China - China's economic model focuses on stability and resilience, employing a dual circulation strategy that allows for continued growth despite potential external pressures from Western countries [10][12]. - The contrast between the US's singular growth approach and China's diversified strategy suggests that China's long-term economic stability may be more sustainable [10][12]. Japan's Economic Struggles - Japan's GDP experienced a 0.2% decline in the first quarter, attributed to severe demographic challenges, including an aging population and rising inflation, which have dampened consumer spending [16][20]. - Japan's close economic ties with the US make it vulnerable to fluctuations in the US economy, particularly in light of ongoing trade tensions and tariff wars [18][20]. Future Outlook - The economic trajectories of the US, China, and Japan reveal that while GDP figures may appear strong, the underlying economic realities, such as living costs and consumer welfare, are critical indicators of true economic health [20][22]. - The potential rise of India's economy poses a competitive threat to Japan, emphasizing the need for Japan to find new growth avenues to avoid being surpassed [18][20].

Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in Q2, meeting expectations[1] - The industrial production grew by 6.2% year-on-year in Q2, with June showing a growth of 6.8%[1] - The service sector production index increased by 6.1% year-on-year in Q2, up 0.3 percentage points from Q1[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth decreased from 3.7% to 2.8% year-on-year due to the impact of "two new" and "two heavy" projects and the real estate market[1] - Infrastructure investment growth for the first half of the year was 8.9% for broad scope and 4.6% for narrow scope (excluding power)[1] - Manufacturing investment growth was 7.5%, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 17.3% year-on-year[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in June, below the market expectation of 5.6%[2] - The average consumption growth for May and June was 5.6%, indicating a stable consumption level despite the drop in June[2] Export Performance - Exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, surpassing the market expectation of 3.2%[2] - Cumulative exports for the first half of the year increased by 5.9%, demonstrating resilience despite a challenging external trade environment[2] Financial Sector - New social financing in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 3.71 trillion yuan, with a total of 22.8 trillion yuan for the first half, an increase of 4.7 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - The balance of loans showed a year-on-year growth rate decline from 7.5% in January to 7.1% in June[3] Economic Outlook - Economic pressures may increase in the second half of 2025, with GDP growth expectations for Q3 and Q4 projected to decline to 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively[3] - The need for timely and effective incremental policies is emphasized to support economic recovery[3]