Group 1: Market Overview - The trading week begins on Tuesday, January 19th, 2026, with the market closed on Monday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day [1] - The delayed November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is expected on Thursday, skipping the October report due to a government shutdown [4] - The quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 2025 is also due on Thursday, with expectations for a revision in line with the previously announced +4.3% growth [5] Group 2: Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated to rise above +200K, from +198K reported last week, indicating a stable jobless claims environment despite weak monthly job numbers [6] Group 3: Q4 Earnings Reports - Q4 earnings season begins with reports from 3M (MMM) and D.R. Horton (DHI) before the market opens, and from Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), and Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) after the market closes [7] - Interactive Brokers is expected to grow by +2% on its bottom line and +4.3% on the top, holding a buy rating [9] - Netflix aims for +27.9% growth in earnings and +16.8% in revenues, continuing its expansion into global markets, holding a hold rating [9] - D.R. Horton is expected to improve on a -25% earnings growth forecast with -12% revenues [9]

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's real GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the annual growth target and maintaining a growth rate above 5% for three consecutive years[3] - The global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 2.7%, with developed economies and developing countries (excluding China) expected to grow by 1.7% and 3.7%, respectively[3] - China's GDP size in 2025 is estimated at 140,187.9 billion yuan, with a per capita GDP of approximately 99,786 yuan, or about 13,970 USD[3] Income and Consumption - In 2025, the per capita disposable income is expected to increase by 5.0%, slightly lower than the growth rates of 6.3% and 5.3% in 2023 and 2024, respectively[5] - The median growth rate of disposable income is projected at 4.4%, marking the lowest point since 2021[6] - The share of spending on food, clothing, and housing is declining, while spending on daily necessities, transportation, education, and entertainment is increasing[5] Industrial Growth - Key industries with rapid growth include railways, shipbuilding, aerospace (14.0%), automobiles (11.5%), and electronics (10.6%), contributing significantly to overall industrial growth[8] - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to be 4.0%, lower than the previous years' rates of 4.9% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024[8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 3.8% year-on-year, with a notable drop in real estate investment by 36.3%[19] - The industrial capacity utilization rate is expected to be 74.4% in 2025, slightly improving but still below the 75.0% level of 2024[10] Demographic Challenges - The natural population growth rate for 2025 is projected at -2.41‰, continuing a trend of negative growth over the past three years[12] - The proportion of the population aged 60 and above is expected to reach 23.0% in 2025, indicating ongoing aging and declining birth rates[13]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 4.5%, while the nominal GDP is expected to rise by 5.0%[1] - The actual GDP is forecasted to decline, contrasting with the nominal GDP increase, indicating a potential economic slowdown[4] Consumption Trends - Consumer spending recovery is slowing, with a growth rate of only 0.7% in December 2025, primarily due to weak goods consumption[3] - Service consumption continues to improve, showing a growth of 1.3% in December 2025[14] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment is experiencing a marginal decline, with a decrease of 10.55% year-on-year in December 2025[27] - High-tech industries are still driving production growth, with a notable increase of 28.4% in December 2025[27] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.2% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in this sector[30] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to weaken, with a significant drop of 35.8% in December 2025 compared to the previous year[3] - Residential sales prices are also declining, with a decrease of 1.7% in December 2025[3] Employment Situation - Employment remains stable, with an unemployment rate of 5.2% in December 2025, but further support is needed to maintain this stability[3]

140万亿元的GDP，不仅是规模的持续扩大，更是结构优化、动能转换的生动写照。中国经济增长正在 更多依靠创新驱动和内需拉动，发展的协调性和可持续性得到改善，为未来更高质量发展积蓄了强大动 能。 2025年经济社会发展主要目标任务的圆满实现，这份难能可贵的成绩单告诉我们：只要坚持正确方向， 凝心聚力，团结拼搏，中国经济的前景必将更加光明。 "十四五"胜利收官之年，2025年中国经济实现了5％的增长，完成全年目标任务，经济总量一举跨越140 万亿元大关，达到1401879亿元，交出了一份厚重而提气的成绩单，来之不易、难能可贵。 当前，世界经济增长动能不足，地缘政治冲突、保护主义升温等"逆风"强劲，国内困难挑战增多，中国 经济在如此复杂严峻的环境中，不仅经济总量迈上新台阶，更实现了发展质量的有效提升。还要看到， 随着我国经济规模的持续扩大，同样的5％增长，带来的增量更大，含金量更高。这份"稳"，不是风平 浪静下的自然增长，而是在搏击风浪逆水行舟中拼出来的，很不容易。国际比较看，5％左右的增速位 居全球主要经济体前列，展现了大国经济的强大定力与内生动力。 ...

（原标题：时报图说丨5%！GDP突破140万亿元！2025年国民经济"成绩单"出炉） ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, the GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% at constant prices [1] - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2% in Q4 [1] Contribution to Economic Growth - In 2025, the contribution rates to economic growth from final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services were 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively [3] - In Q4, the contribution rates were 52.9% from final consumption expenditure, 16.0% from gross capital formation, and 31.1% from net exports of goods and services [3] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485.186 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.8% compared to the previous year [3] - Excluding real estate development investment, total fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% [3] - By sector, infrastructure investment fell by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 17.2% [3]

1月19日，据国家统计局消息， 2025年，全国居民人均可支配收入43377元，比上年名义增长 5.0%，扣除价格因素，实际增长5.0%。 2025年，全国居民人均消费支出29476元，比上年名 义增长4.4%，扣除价格因素，实际增长4.4%。 全文如下： 一、居民收入情况 2025年，全国居民人均可支配收入43377元，比上年名义增长5.0%，扣除价格因素，实际增长 5.0%。分城乡看，城镇居民人均可支配收入56502元，增长（以下如无特别说明，均为同比名 义增长）4.3%，扣除价格因素，实际增长4.2%；农村居民人均可支配收入24456元，增长 5.8%，扣除价格因素，实际增长6.0%。 按收入来源分，2025年，全国居民人均工资性收入24555元，增长5.3%，占人均可支配收入的 比重为56.6%；人均经营净收入7252元，增长5.0%，占人均可支配收入的比重为16.7%；人均 财产净收入3490元，增长1.6%，占人均可支配收入的比重为8.0%；人均转移净收入8080元， 增长5.7%，占人均可支配收入的比重为18.6%。 表1 2025年全国居民收支主要数据 2025年，全国居民人均可支配收入中位数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents the 2025 national economic operation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting key economic indicators and their year-on-year changes. Group 1: Economic Indicators - GDP for 2025 is projected at 14,018.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [4] - The industrial added value above designated size is expected to grow by 5.9% in 2025 [4] - The added value of the service industry is anticipated to increase by 5.4% [4] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods for 2025 is estimated at 501.202 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.7% compared to the previous year [4] - Real estate development investment is projected at 82.788 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline of 17.2% [4] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing is expected to be 88,101 million square meters, down by 8.7% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Price and Employment Metrics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decrease by 2.6% [4] - The total import and export volume of goods is estimated at 454.687 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.8% [4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is projected to be 5.2%, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The per capita disposable income of residents is expected to reach 43,377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The national economic performance report for 2025 indicates that high-quality development has achieved new results, with major economic and social development goals successfully met, marking a successful conclusion to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Economic Indicators - GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year [2] - Investment (excluding rural households) totaled 485.186 billion yuan, declining by 3.8% [2] - Real estate development investment was 82.788 billion yuan, down by 17.2% [2] - New commercial housing construction area was 8,810.1 million square meters, decreasing by 8.7% [2] - Total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 501.202 billion yuan, increasing by 3.7% [2] - Total import and export value reached 454.687 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% [2] Employment and Income - The national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - Per capita disposable income was 43,377 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 5.0% after adjusting for price factors [3]

今天上午，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局局长康义介绍，2025年，国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发 展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。 面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收 官。"十四五"期间，中国经济总量连续跨越，110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元、140万亿元关口。 2025年全国居民人均可支配收入比上年增长5% 国家统计局1月19日发布数据显示，2025年，居民收入持续增长，农村居民收入增速快于城镇。 全年全国居民人均可支配收入43377元，比上年名义增长5.0%，扣除价格因素实际增长5.0%。按常住地分，城镇居民人均可支配收入56502元，比上年名 义增长4.3%，实际增长4.2%；农村居民人均可支配收入24456元，比上年名义增长5.8%，实际增长6.0%。全国居民人均可支配收入中位数36231元，比上 年名义增长4.4%。按全国居民五等份收入分组，低收入组人均可支配 ...