出口下滑、投资萎缩、消费停滞，日本经济在连续五个季度增长后调头向下。 日本内阁府17日发布的数据显示，2025年第三季度日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降 1.8%。这是六个季度以来日本经济首次出现负增长。 环比计算，GDP下降0.4%，尽管略优于市场预期的0.6% 降幅，但仍清晰地表明这个全球第四大经济体 在内外夹击下失去了增长动力。 三驾马车同时熄火 美国关税政策对日本出口造成的冲击不容小觑。 尽管美日两国于9月正式达成协议，对几乎所有日本进口商品实施15% 的基准关税，低于初始计划的 27.5%（汽车）和25%（其他大部分商品），但仍远高于特朗普上台前的2.5%。 汽车制造商出口量骤降，扭转了此前在关税上调前提前出口的局面。大部分车企通过降价消化了关税成 本，但这无疑挤压了它们的利润空间。 对美出口占日本总出口的20%，这一摩擦直接抹去了GDP贡献的0.3个百分点。 日本经济此轮下滑，源于出口、住房投资和私人消费这三驾马车的同时熄火。 美国加征关税对日本出口造成沉重打击，第三季度日本货物及服务贸易出口环比下降1.2%。 作为日本经济的龙头产业，汽车出口在关税生效后大幅下滑，导致外部需求对经济增 ...

消费作为日本经济的重要组成部分，本季度表现虽未大幅下滑，但整体趋于平淡，未能形成足够支撑力量去抵消外贸和投资的弱势。 消费者情绪在物价持续高位与经济前景不明的情况下依旧谨慎，这也制约了整体经济反弹的力度。 在这样的背景下，日本央行的决策空间app-mt5 . com受到挤压。此前市场普遍认为，央行可能在今年年底前再次调整利率，以应对国 内持续的物价压力。然而最新的经济数据让这一判断变得更加复杂。经济的意外收缩或促使政策制定者重新评估紧缩节奏，甚至推迟 任何进一步的加息行动。 总体来看，日本经济正处在多方因素交织的微妙时期。外部不确定性与内部调整叠加，使未来的政策路径更具挑战性。市场正在密切 关注央行与政府的下一步行动，以判断日本经济能否在年末或明年初重新回到稳定轨道。 日本第三季度经济再度传来疲软信号，打破过去六个季度的增长趋势，为未来的政策决策蒙上更深阴影。最新公布的初步数据指出， 日本经济在三季度出现了实质性下滑，显示出多重压力叠加下的脆弱性，也让外界对日本央行的加息路线产生更多疑问。 根据政府公布的信息，三季度日本实际经济活动出现明显放缓，外部环境的变化是主要原因之一。受海外需求疲软及贸易压力上升的 影 ...

周一（11月17日）亚洲时段，美元/日元维持高位震荡，最新美元兑日元汇率报154.7300，涨幅0.12%， 日本经济在第三季度的萎缩程度小于预期，汇价对此反应有限。尽管市场对日本当局干预汇市的担忧对 这一货币对构成阻力，但受美元小幅走强以及日本央行下次加息时机尚存不确定性的影响，美元兑日元 仍获得支撑。 美元/日元技术分析 从技术角度看，美元对日元汇率短线仍维持偏多结构，但上方压力区域清晰。上周五，USD/JPY自 153.60（4小时图100周期均线）强势反弹，并突破154.45–154.50压力带。 日线指标处于健康的多头区域，距离超买区间尚有空间，意味着汇价仍具进一步上行潜能。若美元兑日 元有效突破155.00心理关口，则可能打开上行至155.60甚至156.00的空间。 下行方面，只要154.00支撑稳固，多头结构仍未被破坏；若跌破153.60区间，则可能进一步回落至 153.00。一旦153.00被有效击穿，短线偏向将转向空头，目标或指向152.10区间。 三季度日本GDP环比下降0.4%，年率下降1.8%，尽管跌幅略好于预期，但仍显示经济动力明显不足。 疲弱的数据迫使投资者进一步下调对日本央行加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Argentina is facing a severe currency crisis, prompting the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling a total of $1.11 billion to support the peso, which has depreciated significantly against the dollar [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - The Argentine central bank sold $678 million on Friday, following sales of $379 million on Thursday and $53 million on Wednesday, marking a total intervention of $1.11 billion over three days [3]. - The peso has depreciated nearly 11% against the dollar in the past month and has seen a year-to-date decline of 30.1% [3]. Group 2: Government Response - Economy Minister Luis Caputo vowed to use "the last dollar" to defend the exchange rate and plans to guarantee payments on international bonds maturing in January and July 2026 [4]. - The government has implemented new foreign exchange controls to stabilize the currency, including stricter regulations on banks and prohibiting certain financial transactions [9][10]. Group 3: Political Context - The peso's collapse is attributed to a political crisis, following unexpected electoral losses for President Javier Milei's party, which undermined investor confidence in his ability to maintain a free-market agenda [8][9]. - The upcoming midterm elections on October 26 are critical, as they will reflect public sentiment towards Milei's economic policies and could influence the stability of his administration [9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Analysts warn that the massive sale of dollars to support the peso could lead to a significant contraction in economic activity, potentially resulting in credit tightening and economic recession [4]. - The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) $20 billion loan has provided temporary relief but has not led to a sustainable accumulation of reserves, leaving Argentina with limited foreign exchange resources [4].

Core Insights - The Canadian economy is expected to show no growth in Q2, with a significant risk of contraction [1] - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to lower interest rates at least two more times due to ongoing economic challenges [1] Economic Performance - April's GDP data indicates a decline of 0.1%, with similar contractions expected in May [1] - The quarterly annualized growth rate for the remainder of 2025 is projected to remain below 1% [1] Monetary Policy - The economic outlook suggests that the Bank of Canada will respond to the weak growth by implementing further interest rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank forecasts that Myanmar's economy will contract by 2.5% in the fiscal year 2025/26, primarily due to the impact of earthquakes [1] Economic Outlook - The contraction of 2.5% indicates a significant downturn in economic activity for Myanmar, highlighting vulnerabilities in the region [1]