Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia has decided to lower its interest rate by 25 basis points as expected [1] Group 1 - The central bank's decision aligns with market expectations and aims to support economic growth [1] - This rate cut is part of a broader monetary policy strategy to stimulate the economy amid ongoing challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian swap market indicates a 13% probability of the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates this month, showing little change since the release of inflation data [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Expectations** - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada stands at 13% according to the swap market [1] - This probability has remained stable following the announcement of inflation data [1]

调查显示，印尼央行可能降息。 （华尔街日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - India is on track for a record year in initial public offerings (IPOs), driven by interest rate cuts and strong domestic demand for stocks, with total IPO value reaching $6.7 billion year-to-date, up from $5.4 billion in the same period last year, making it the largest IPO market outside the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The anticipated IPOs, including Tata Capital's expected $2 billion offering, could push India past last year's record of $21 billion raised [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant acceleration in the primary market, estimating that fundraising could reach $20 billion in the second half of the year [1] - The Nifty 50 index, which had a sluggish start to the year, has risen approximately 7% year-to-date, nearing historical highs [1] Group 2 - The lack of a trade agreement between New Delhi and Washington, along with potential additional tariffs from Trump, creates uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, necessitating more successful IPOs to validate the bull market [2] - The Reserve Bank of India's one percentage point interest rate cut has boosted market optimism, aided by easing inflation pressures and signs of economic recovery [2] - Domestic retail investors are channeling significant household savings into mutual funds, benefiting from personal income tax cuts [2] Group 3 - Further rate cuts from the central bank are expected to enhance domestic investor interest in stocks, including IPOs, while foreign institutional investors remain underweight in the Indian market, indicating potential investment space [2] - Despite foreign institutional investors withdrawing $8 billion from Indian equities this year due to valuation concerns, domestic funds have attracted over $42 billion, offsetting the impact of foreign exits [2] - Companies seeking to go public are seizing the market rebound, with ICICI Prudential Asset Management expected to be the third company this year to list with a market cap exceeding $1 billion [2] Group 4 - HDB Financial Services has seen a 5% increase in stock price since its $1.5 billion IPO earlier this month, while Hexaware's stock has risen nearly 15% since raising $1 billion in February [3] - These successful transactions have boosted confidence among a long list of IPO candidates, with expectations for more medium to large IPOs to test market demand [3] - Upcoming IPO plans include those from LG Group's Indian subsidiary, stock brokerage platform Groww, and e-commerce company Meesho [3]

智通财经7月14日电，交易员加大对英国央行的降息押注，预计今年将再降息58个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India may consider an interest rate cut in the fourth quarter, with a possibility of earlier action, as June's CPI is expected to decline to 2.2%, the lowest since February 2019 [1] Inflation Outlook - The June CPI year-on-year rate is projected to decrease to 2.2%, down from 2.82% in May, indicating a continued slowdown in inflation [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to favorable base effects from food price inflation, which offsets the monthly increase in food costs [1] Central Bank Policy - The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, with the potential for earlier action if inflation trends continue [1] - The risk of food price shocks is considered low, supporting the case for a rate cut [1]

Economic Performance - The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive month of decline, indicating a loss of earlier strong growth momentum [1] - This contraction follows a 0.3% decline in April, suggesting a significant slowdown in the second quarter compared to a 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1][8] - If June output falls by 0.4% or more, the UK economy will experience an overall contraction in the second quarter [1] Sector Performance - The contraction in May was primarily driven by significant declines in the production and construction sectors, which were only partially offset by growth in the services sector [8] - The downturn in production was concentrated in oil and gas extraction, automotive manufacturing, and the volatile pharmaceutical industry [8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.2% against the US dollar, reaching $1.35 [4] - Investors slightly increased bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in August, with expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year [9] Government Response - Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the disappointing GDP data and expressed determination to stimulate economic growth [7] - The Labour government is relying on stronger growth to fund its spending plans, but fiscal conditions are tightening due to changes in welfare payments and winter fuel subsidies [7] Economic Outlook - Economists predict that even if June GDP stabilizes, overall growth for the second quarter will slow to just 0.1% [8] - Concerns about the health of the UK economy have increased, with the Bank of England previously warning of weak potential growth [10]

金十数据7月11日讯，欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔今日表示，再次降息的门槛非常高；通胀没有持续不及目 标的风险；对欧元升值对物价影响的担忧被夸大了；政策处于良好状态。对此，财经网站Forexlive点评 称，这再次证实了欧洲央行打算在整个夏天暂停降息。交易员目前预计7月份不降息的概率约为97%， 而9月份降息的概率仅为38%。 媒体：施纳贝尔再次证实央行打算在整个夏天暂停降息 ...

智通财经7月10日电，韩国央行将维持降息立场，将调整进一步降息的时间和步伐。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Uruguay has reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to 9% [1] Group 1 - The decision to lower the interest rate reflects the Central Bank's strategy to stimulate economic growth [1] - This rate cut may influence borrowing costs and consumer spending in the Uruguayan economy [1] - The adjustment in the interest rate is part of a broader monetary policy approach to manage inflation and economic stability [1]