今晚21:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将领衔全球主要央行行长在欧洲央行中央银行论坛进行小组会谈。外部 特朗普施压不断，内部降息意见分化，鲍威尔或再现"一碗水端平"？论坛关键问题又何解？点击查看... 相关链接 今晚21:30，鲍威尔领衔央行行长"炸场" ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese government bond market, specifically the 10-year treasury bonds and their yield performance [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Resistance Levels for Bond Yields** - The 10-year treasury bond yield is facing strong resistance around 1.6%, with previous dips reaching approximately 1.57% [1][2]. - Current yields are fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.7%, indicating limited adjustment space [1][2]. - Investors are advised to consider buying when yields approach 1.65% but to be cautious of potential pullbacks near 1.6% [1][2]. 2. **Expectations for Resuming Bond Trading** - Market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading need to be postponed [3][4]. - The central bank requires two conditions to be met: an increase in bond supply and favorable yield conditions [4]. - There is no significant increase in bond supply expected in July, with only minor peaks anticipated in August and November [4]. 3. **Central Bank's Stance on Yield Movements** - The central bank is more inclined to accept rising yields rather than significant declines, which pose systemic risks [5]. - To avoid breaching critical levels like 1.6%, the central bank may wait for the market to adjust to higher levels before considering resumption of trading [5]. 4. **Liquidity Management and Central Bank Operations** - The notion of "liquidity withdrawal" when treasury bonds mature is inaccurate; central bank purchases actually inject liquidity into the system [6][7]. - The process of purchasing bonds involves a two-step operation that ultimately increases liquidity, although maturity payments do not directly affect base currency and liquidity [7]. 5. **Interest Rate Cut Potential** - The central bank's capacity for interest rate cuts this year is limited, with a potential cut of about 10 basis points expected around late Q3 or early Q4 [8]. - The timing of any cuts will depend on external conditions, with the focus on stabilizing growth in response to economic pressures [8]. 6. **Current Market Liquidity Conditions** - The market is experiencing marginal tightening of liquidity, with the central bank maintaining a relatively loose stance but with limits [9][10]. - The seven-day repo rate is around 1.5%, and the overnight repo rate is approximately 1.4%, indicating controlled liquidity to prevent fund misallocation [9][10]. 7. **Impact of Interbank Leverage on Market Rates** - High interbank leverage is currently observed, with a 0.3% increase in leverage for every 10 basis points recovery in yields [12]. - The current high leverage levels make further increases challenging without a drop in short-term rates [12]. 8. **Future Market Outlook** - The bond market is expected to face strong resistance at the 1.6% level, with significant attention needed on the U.S.-China trade tensions and economic fundamentals [13]. - Economic pressures in Q3, particularly in consumption and exports, could lead to a decline in bond yields if conditions worsen [13]. Other Important Insights - The central bank's preference for currency depreciation over appreciation indicates a strategic approach to managing economic stability [5]. - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade relations and economic indicators, which could significantly impact the bond market dynamics [13].

Core Insights - The Canadian economy is expected to show no growth in Q2, with a significant risk of contraction [1] - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to lower interest rates at least two more times due to ongoing economic challenges [1] Economic Performance - April's GDP data indicates a decline of 0.1%, with similar contractions expected in May [1] - The quarterly annualized growth rate for the remainder of 2025 is projected to remain below 1% [1] Monetary Policy - The economic outlook suggests that the Bank of Canada will respond to the weak growth by implementing further interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canada is expected to experience an economic contraction in Q2, with consecutive declines in April and May, marking the first such occurrence since 2017 before the pandemic [1] Economic Outlook - Desjardins economists predict a slight contraction in Canada's GDP for the second quarter, indicating a downturn in economic activity [1] - The tracking of Q2 GDP by Desjardins shows clearer signs of this mild contraction [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The expectation is that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in the upcoming month in response to the economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Royal Bank of Canada suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of 2025 due to a potential decline in UK inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - UK labor market data appears to be weakening, increasing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] - Persistent high inflation and accelerating wage growth may delay the anticipated rate cuts, presenting a risk to this outlook [1]

美国债券巨头品浩：应对未来经济衰退可能更多依赖央行降息 而非财政救助 智通财经6月26日电，美国债券巨头品浩(PIMCO)表示，应对未来经济衰退可能更多依赖央行降息，而 不是财政救助，因为全球公共债务水平过高，限制了各国政府的支出能力。 ...

CPI公布数据后，加拿大央行7月降息的可能性稳定在38%左右。 ...

Group 1: Dollar Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that stablecoins could reinforce the dollar's dominance [2] - Federal Reserve's Daly mentioned that risks to the Fed's goals are roughly balanced, requiring attention to both employment and inflation [2] Group 2: Currency Movements - The dollar to yen exchange rate surpassed 147, reaching a new high since May 14 [2] - The New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar both hit one-month lows against the U.S. dollar [2] - The dollar to Thai baht rose to its highest level since May 20 [2] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Interest Rates - ECB Governing Council member Centeno indicated that the Eurozone economy requires additional stimulus from the European Central Bank [2] - Moody's suggested that the Bank of Thailand may cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are more susceptible to the impact of rising oil prices [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 23, 2025, most government bond futures closed lower, with the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year contracts down by 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.05% respectively, while the 30-year contract rose by 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) saw a slight increase of 0.01%, marking its 12th consecutive rise, with the latest price at 113.01 yuan [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 17.19% and a transaction value of 1.339 billion yuan [1] Group 2: LPR and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China announced the latest LPR rates on June 20, 2025, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year and above rate at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month [1] - Looking ahead, there is potential for LPR to be lowered further in the second half of the year due to uncertainties in the external environment and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [2] - The anticipated reduction in LPR is expected to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, stimulating internal financing demand and supporting investment and consumption [2] Group 3: Fund Performance and Metrics - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera reached 7.778 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 274 million yuan over the past three days [3] - The fund has shown strong performance, with a 14.27% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 4th out of 406 index bond funds [3] - Historical data indicates a maximum monthly return of 5.35% and a 100% probability of profit over a one-year holding period [3] Group 4: Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown since the inception of the 30-year government bond ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4] - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - As of June 20, 2025, the tracking error for the 30-year government bond ETF over the past month was 0.048% [6] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of the corresponding maturity government bonds [6]

当全球大多数央行选择观望特朗普关税的影响时，瑞士、瑞典和挪威在24小时内接连降息。 本周全球18国央行管理着超过40%的全球经济体量，但大多数都选择了按兵不动。美联储、日本央行、 英国央行，那么巴基斯坦、土耳其和智利央行都维持了利率不变。 在这种普遍看法的背景下，欧洲三国的同步化宽松幅度更加凸显。瑞士央行周四宣布降息25个基点，而 就在今年3月，该行官员还暗示宽松的政策可能已经结束。瑞典央行同样在一天前实施了类似的降息。 最令市场意外的是挪威央行的转向。 彭博社调查的经济学家无一预测挪威将在周四降息25个基点，这 是该国疫情后首次降息。 随着7月9日美国可能重新实施惩罚性贸易关税的最后期限，加上俄乌的持续不确定性和美国对伊朗的潜 在打击的威胁，全球政策制定者正面临着边境的复杂局面。欧洲三国的提前行动，或许是对这种不确定 性的最直接回应。 通胀消退 瑞士的通胀压力几乎消失。5月份消费者物价同比下跌0.1%，瑞士央行最新预测显示今年通胀率飙升 0.2%。这主要归因于避险资金推动瑞郎走强，自特朗普上任以来，瑞郎美元兑美元均大幅升值。 瑞典的情况从年初的通胀飙升开始，同时这个北欧最大经济体开始复苏。瑞典央行行长Eri ...