4、伊朗表示，以色列的袭击破坏了外交进程，并誓言将作出坚决果断的回应。美伊核谈判原定于本周 末恢复。 5、联合国安理会将召开会议。美国总统特朗普此前曾敦促伊朗"趁为时未晚"尽快达成核协议，国务卿 卢比奥称美国未参与袭击，卢比奥主管的国务院称"没有撤离以色列的计划"。英国首相斯塔默和法国总 统马克龙发表克制性言论。马来西亚谴责以色列。 1、6月13日，以色列从伊朗伊斯兰共和国对伊朗核设施发动空袭。革命卫队指挥官和核科学家在袭击中 丧生。联合国官员证实，伊朗唯一的铀转化工厂——伊斯法罕的一处设施遭到袭击。国际原子能机构 （IAEA）宣称，伊朗不遵守协议。 2、伊朗回应称向以色列发射了数百枚弹道导弹，以色列称伊朗发射了100多架无人机。特拉维夫可以看 到爆炸声，以色列人被建议寻求庇护。如此迅速的升级与以往的交锋截然不同，当时伊朗通常会等待数 天或数周的时间才对以色列的袭击进行反击。美国正在帮助以色列防御伊朗的猛烈攻击。 6、市场反应：油价飙升，油轮运费飙升，市场消化了全球大量石油运输船队可能中断的预期。美国股 市下跌，而黄金价格上涨。 3、以色列国防部长指责德黑兰袭击平民居住区"越过了红线"。以色列总理本雅明·内塔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian leadership has declared intentions to respond militarily to Israel's recent attacks, which they perceive as acts of desperation in light of Iran's growing power [1][2][6]. Group 1: Iranian Response - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is preparing to retaliate against Israel's actions, with officials stating that a strong response will make Israel regret its actions [2][5]. - Iranian President Pezeshkian emphasized that the government convened an emergency meeting following the attacks, indicating a serious approach to the situation [2]. - The Iranian parliament speaker stated that Iran will use various means to retaliate against Israel [2]. Group 2: Damage Assessment - Reports indicate that some nuclear facilities in Natanz were damaged during the Israeli attacks, although no casualties or radiation leaks have been reported [2][4]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that radiation levels at Iran's main uranium enrichment facilities remained stable, suggesting that the attacks did not penetrate the protective layers [3][4]. Group 3: Israeli Actions - Israel's military claimed to have conducted a significant airstrike on Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility, which is crucial for Iran's nuclear capabilities [6][7]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the military actions were necessary due to Iran's urgency in weapon manufacturing and described the operation as one of the largest in history [6][7]. Group 4: U.S. Involvement - U.S. officials indicated that the Trump administration is monitoring the situation closely, with military resources being repositioned in the region [8][10]. - Despite the tensions, the U.S. government still hopes to engage in nuclear negotiations with Iran, although the recent attacks have complicated the situation [9][11]. Group 5: Future Negotiations - Following the attacks, Iran officially withdrew from nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which were scheduled to take place soon [11]. - Trump mentioned that Iran had reached out for discussions, suggesting a potential for renewed negotiations despite the current hostilities [12].

Core Viewpoint - Iran has indefinitely suspended its participation in the nuclear talks with the United States, which were scheduled to take place in Oman [1] Group 1: Political Developments - Iranian leaders announced the cancellation of the upcoming nuclear negotiations with the U.S. [1] - The decision follows recent airstrikes by Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military bases [1] Group 2: Implications for Regional Stability - The indefinite halt of talks may escalate tensions in the Middle East, affecting geopolitical dynamics [1] - The situation could lead to increased military actions or retaliatory measures from Iran in response to Israeli strikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly increased due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories [2][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $2.90, a 4.34% increase, closing at $69.77 per barrel; WTI contracts increased by $3.17, a 4.88% rise, closing at $68.15 per barrel [2]. - The market reacted to news of U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East, which heightened geopolitical tensions and led to a 5.2% spike in WTI crude futures [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are critical; successful talks could ease tensions and lower oil prices, while failure may lead to further price increases [2][6]. - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a risk of supply disruptions if tensions escalate [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which supports oil prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.64 million barrels to 432.415 million barrels as of June 6, indicating a tightening supply [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical risks, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and OPEC's production decisions [7]. - The expectation for Brent crude oil prices is to range between $60 and $70 per barrel for the year, with potential short-term rebounds but a long-term bearish outlook [7].

金十数据6月13日讯，据AXIOS网站，两位美国消息人士和一位以色列消息人士称，特朗普政府告诉以 色列政府，美国不会直接参与以色列对伊朗核设施的任何军事打击。这将是一次单独的任务，而不是联 合行动，至少在轰炸和其他进攻性行动方面是这样。消息人士没有透露美国是否会提供情报或空中加油 等后勤方面的援助。美国、以色列和伊朗都在为可能发生的情况做准备，即美伊核谈判破裂，以色列对 伊朗发动袭击、伊朗通过袭击以色列和美国在该地区的基地进行报复，这些情况可能在下周左右发生。 美媒：美国告知以色列不会直接参与对伊朗的行动 ...

阿曼外长：第六轮美伊核谈判将于周日在阿曼马斯喀特举行。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 ...

【环球网报道】据美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）当地时间6月11日报道，多名消息人士告诉CBS，美国官员被告知，以色列已 做好对伊朗发起军事行动的充分准备。 对于上述消息，以色列官员和美国白宫方面拒绝置评。 报道提到，特朗普11日在肯尼迪中心出席活动发表演讲时谈到了伊朗问题。他告诉记者，美国人被建议离开中东地区，"因为那 里可能很危险，我们将持续关注"。 另据《以色列时报》报道，在9日的通话中，特朗普告诉以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，威胁攻击伊朗 "无助于"核谈判。以媒报道称， 在特朗普确定与伊朗的核谈判破裂之前，不会讨论对伊朗发动打击的问题。消息人士透露，内塔尼亚胡并未从特朗普那里得到 明确答复，即美国是否会允许以色列单独对伊朗采取军事行动，或是华盛顿希望参与或主导对伊朗的打击行动。 伊朗与美国将于6月15日在阿曼举行新一轮间接谈判。伊朗国防部长纳西尔扎德6月11日警告称，如果谈判失败，伊朗与美国发 生军事冲突，伊朗将袭击美国在中东地区的军事基地。当地时间6月11日，美国国务院和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动 荡，美国政府正在将非必要人员从该地区撤离。 报道称，美国预计伊朗可能会对美国在伊拉克的某些军事基地进行报复 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department has ordered embassies within Iran's strike range to convene emergency action committees and prepare for risk mitigation measures due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran [1] - The U.S. is on high alert, anticipating potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with military families in the region being authorized to leave [2] - Recent intelligence suggests Israel may act against Iran's nuclear facilities without U.S. consent, which could jeopardize ongoing nuclear negotiations [1][2] Group 2 - Iran has urged the U.S. to prioritize diplomatic solutions, asserting that military actions will only exacerbate instability [2] - Upcoming direct talks between the U.S. and Iran are tentatively scheduled, but there are indications that these discussions may not take place [2] - Tensions are rising as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports a significant increase in Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade materials [3] Group 3 - Iranian officials accuse European nations of violating a decade-old agreement by failing to lift sanctions as initially promised [4] - Iran's response to potential IAEA resolutions against it will be strong, placing full responsibility on those perceived as malicious actors [4] - The Iranian Foreign Minister emphasizes that a peaceful nuclear agreement is within reach, despite the U.S. administration's declining confidence in negotiations [3]

【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据法新社报道，美国及伊朗双方11日均就美伊核谈判做出最新表态。美国总 统特朗普在当日播出的采访中表示，他对与伊朗达成核协议"信心减弱"。与此同时，伊朗11日则表示， 若谈判失败，美伊之间爆发冲突，伊朗将以美国在中东地区的军事基地作为目标。 法新社称，在11日发布的一段采访中，特朗普被问及是否有信心阻止伊朗铀浓缩活动，他回应称对美伊 达成协议的"信心减弱"。 "我不知道。我之前确实这么想，但现在我的信心愈发减弱。他们似乎在拖延，这令人遗憾。相比几个 月前，我现在信心减弱了。"特朗普说。 在阿曼斡旋下，美国和伊朗自今年4月以来已举行五轮间接会谈，取得一定进展，但双方在若干核心问 题上分歧依然突出。美方坚持伊朗应全面停止所有级别的铀浓缩活动，而伊方强调，适度开展铀浓缩活 动是其和平利用核能权利的一部分，拒绝"零浓缩"要求。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 他继续提到对达成协议的信心大打折扣，"也许他们不想达成协议，我能说什么？也可能他们还想这么 做。现在没有定论。" 报道提到，与此同时，伊朗当天则表示若谈判失败，双方爆发冲突将以美军基地为目标。 "美国（在本地区）的所有基地尽在我们范围之内， ...

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia has announced a reduction in its July crude oil export prices to Asia, reaching the lowest level in nearly four years, indicating an attempt to regain market share amid OPEC+ gradually increasing production, raising concerns about a potential supply-demand imbalance in the oil market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Impact - Saudi Arabia's official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asia is set at $1.20 above the Oman/Dubai average, down from $1.40 in June, marking a new low since 2021 [3]. - The OPEC+ coalition has agreed to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day starting next month, with a total increase of 1.37 million barrels per day since April, which is 62% of their planned increase of 2.2 million barrels per day [3]. - Global crude oil inventories have reportedly increased by approximately 170 million barrels over the past 100 days, indicating rising supply pressures [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Price Wars - Historical price wars, such as the one initiated by OPEC in late 2014, led to a significant drop in oil prices from $107 per barrel to $27 per barrel within 18 months, severely impacting U.S. shale oil companies [5]. - The oil price crash in March 2020, driven by the pandemic and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, resulted in a record single-day drop of over 20% [5]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The OECD has downgraded its growth forecasts for the U.S. and global economies, projecting a slowdown in global GDP growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026 [7]. - OPEC remains cautiously optimistic about trade developments, suggesting potential agreements that could lower tariffs and reduce global uncertainty [7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, could influence oil supply dynamics, with potential increases in Iranian oil exports if sanctions are lifted [8]. Group 4: Future Price Projections - If OPEC+ production increases as expected, WTI crude prices could drop to $53-$55 per barrel, while Brent prices may fall to $56-$58 per barrel, representing a potential decline of about 10% from current levels [9]. - Conversely, if production increases are delayed or reduced, WTI prices could rise to $65-$67 per barrel, and Brent prices could reach $68-$70 per barrel [9].