联系方式：010-56711796 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | 品种 | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 节后首个交易日铁矿收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布《关于治理价格无序竞争维护良好市场价 | | | | | 格秩序的公告》。《公告》指出，对价格无序竞争问题突出的重点行业，指导行业 | | | | | 协会等有关机构调研评估行业平均成本，为经营者合理定价提供参考。 | | | | | 2、本周，五大钢材品种供应 863.31 万吨，周环比降 3.76 万吨，降幅为 0.4%；总 | | | | 库存 | 1600.72 万吨，周环比增 127.86 万吨，增幅 8.7%；周消费量为 751.43 万吨， | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 其中建材消费环比降 32.8%，板材消费环比降 7.8%。 | | | | | 3、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯明确表态，支持在 2025 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index reaching approximately 26,200 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30.6% [11][12]. - The report discusses the impact of various economic factors, including the People's Bank of China's recent adjustments to interest rates and the ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, which are expected to influence market conditions in the short to medium term [11][12]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of individual stocks within the Hang Seng Index, identifying the best and worst performers, with Lenovo Group (0992) showing a daily increase of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 15.6% [4]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index recorded a trading volume of HKD 2,882.1 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.0 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.22 [5]. - The H-share Index had a trading volume of HKD 1,191.4 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.7 and a PB ratio of 1.10 [5]. - The technology index reported a trading volume of HKD 962.2 billion, with a PE ratio of 22.7 and a PB ratio of 3.33 [5]. Company Performance - Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK) reported a 8.3% year-on-year increase in operating revenue to HKD 23.25 billion, with adjusted EBITDA rising 14.2% to HKD 6.87 billion [26]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, reflecting a strong overall performance [26]. - The gaming operations revenue increased by 10.7% to HKD 18.58 billion, while hotel and shopping center revenues grew by 2.5% to HKD 3.17 billion [26]. New Stock Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Hesai Technology (2525) with a listing price of HKD 228.00 and a maximum fundraising amount of approximately HKD 3.876 billion [31]. - Health 160 (2656) is set to list with a price range of HKD 11.89 to 14.86, aiming to raise up to HKD 500 million [31]. - The report notes that the market sentiment for these new listings is expected to be moderate [32][33].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report is bullish on the long - term trend of stock index futures, maintaining a positive outlook on the long - bull market of the stock index [3]. 2. Core View The current adjustment of the stock index is beneficial for its long - term development. Although there was a pull - back in the market on the day, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the long - bull market of the stock index is still expected [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Policy Situation**: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated measures to promote service exports. Overseas, the EU responded to the US threat of tariff retaliation on digital regulation [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share indexes generally declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76% to 3800.35 points, and only the communication sector rising. The trading volume of the two markets reached 3.2 trillion yuan. In the US, the three major stock indexes rose slightly, with the Dow Jones up 0.32% to 45565.23 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, with the current - month contracts of IH and IF at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy The current adjustment is conducive to the long - term trend of the stock index. The support levels at 3800 and 3700 points should be monitored, and the long - term upward trend of the stock index is still optimistic [3]. Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes, trading volume of the two markets, and margin trading balance [13][14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Show the trading volume, open interest, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of different stock index futures contracts [17][37][44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current leverage requirements have led to unexpected consequences in the market, as stated by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman [1] - Bowman indicated that she may support a rate cut as early as July, reflecting a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding how the capital buffer rules are limiting lending institutions' ability to trade in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, suggesting a need for reevaluation [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump advocates for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates similar to the European approach [1] Group 1 - The call for lower interest rates is aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - Trump emphasizes that lower rates could enhance competitiveness against other economies [1] - The suggestion aligns with ongoing discussions about monetary policy adjustments in the U.S. [1]