Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [3] Report's Core View - After the holiday, iron ore prices rose on the first trading day and continued to rise at night. The supply of iron ore arrivals increased, and the iron - water output showed signs of peaking. Although the market expected steel mills to have concentrated restocking demand, the impact was relatively short - lived. It is recommended to maintain short - term long positions in iron ore trading and set stop - losses [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore closed higher on the first trading day after the holiday and continued to rise at night [3] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, guiding industry associations to assess average industry costs [3] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863,310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,760 tons (0.4%); the total inventory was 1.60072 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,860 tons (8.7%); the weekly consumption was 751,430 tons, with building material consumption down 32.8% and plate consumption down 7.8% week - on - week [3] - New York Fed President Williams supported further interest rate cuts in 2025 to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market [3] - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged in September, gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, and implied a high threshold for further policy easing [3] Market Logic - The arrival volume of iron ore increased, showing an increasing trend on the supply side. The iron - water output showed signs of peaking. The market expected steel mills to have concentrated restocking demand, but the impact was relatively short - lived [3] Trading Strategy - Continue to maintain short - term long positions in iron ore and set stop - losses [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index reaching approximately 26,200 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30.6% [11][12]. - The report discusses the impact of various economic factors, including the People's Bank of China's recent adjustments to interest rates and the ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, which are expected to influence market conditions in the short to medium term [11][12]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of individual stocks within the Hang Seng Index, identifying the best and worst performers, with Lenovo Group (0992) showing a daily increase of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 15.6% [4]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index recorded a trading volume of HKD 2,882.1 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.0 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.22 [5]. - The H-share Index had a trading volume of HKD 1,191.4 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.7 and a PB ratio of 1.10 [5]. - The technology index reported a trading volume of HKD 962.2 billion, with a PE ratio of 22.7 and a PB ratio of 3.33 [5]. Company Performance - Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK) reported a 8.3% year-on-year increase in operating revenue to HKD 23.25 billion, with adjusted EBITDA rising 14.2% to HKD 6.87 billion [26]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, reflecting a strong overall performance [26]. - The gaming operations revenue increased by 10.7% to HKD 18.58 billion, while hotel and shopping center revenues grew by 2.5% to HKD 3.17 billion [26]. New Stock Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Hesai Technology (2525) with a listing price of HKD 228.00 and a maximum fundraising amount of approximately HKD 3.876 billion [31]. - Health 160 (2656) is set to list with a price range of HKD 11.89 to 14.86, aiming to raise up to HKD 500 million [31]. - The report notes that the market sentiment for these new listings is expected to be moderate [32][33].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report is bullish on the long - term trend of stock index futures, maintaining a positive outlook on the long - bull market of the stock index [3]. 2. Core View The current adjustment of the stock index is beneficial for its long - term development. Although there was a pull - back in the market on the day, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the long - bull market of the stock index is still expected [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Policy Situation**: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated measures to promote service exports. Overseas, the EU responded to the US threat of tariff retaliation on digital regulation [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share indexes generally declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76% to 3800.35 points, and only the communication sector rising. The trading volume of the two markets reached 3.2 trillion yuan. In the US, the three major stock indexes rose slightly, with the Dow Jones up 0.32% to 45565.23 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, with the current - month contracts of IH and IF at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy The current adjustment is conducive to the long - term trend of the stock index. The support levels at 3800 and 3700 points should be monitored, and the long - term upward trend of the stock index is still optimistic [3]. Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes, trading volume of the two markets, and margin trading balance [13][14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Show the trading volume, open interest, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of different stock index futures contracts [17][37][44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current leverage requirements have led to unexpected consequences in the market, as stated by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman [1] - Bowman indicated that she may support a rate cut as early as July, reflecting a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding how the capital buffer rules are limiting lending institutions' ability to trade in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, suggesting a need for reevaluation [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump advocates for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates similar to the European approach [1] Group 1 - The call for lower interest rates is aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - Trump emphasizes that lower rates could enhance competitiveness against other economies [1] - The suggestion aligns with ongoing discussions about monetary policy adjustments in the U.S. [1]