股指调整

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政治局会议召开,股指午后回落
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 13:07
股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月30日 王梦颖(Z0015429)、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 政治局会议召开,股指午后回落 市场回顾 今日股指除上证50指数收涨外,其余均收跌。从资金面来看,两市成交额上涨411.09亿元。期指方面,IF、 IH放量上涨,IC、IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 中美将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 2. 中共中央政治局会议:货币政策要保持流动性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本下行 3. 中共中央政治局:宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力 4. 中共中央政治局:深入实施提振消费专项行动,在扩大商品消费的同时,培育服务消费新的增长点 核心观点 今日股指涨跌不一,大盘股指走势相对偏强,红利指数领涨,市场情绪趋于谨慎,两市成交额小幅放量。 GC001上涨,涨幅超7%,市场边际流动性趋紧的情况下导致今日中小盘股指走势相对偏弱。午后中央政治局 会议召开,股指提前回落,我们认为这是因为在市场提前交易会议利好预期的情况下,会议正式召开市场利 好出尽导致股指下行,整体来看本次会议没有超预期信息,因此尾盘股指有 ...
情绪过热,股指调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 05:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The contraction of the US Q1 GDP for the first time in three years has further strengthened market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a full - scale rise in the three major US stock indexes [2]. - China will issue the third batch of trade - in funds in July, which is expected to inject new impetus into domestic demand recovery in the second half of the year [2]. - After three consecutive days of strong rallies, A - shares' sentiment indicators are overheated, and the stock index is adjusting. It is expected that the index still has upward momentum after consolidation, with a rising price center, and the sector market will continue to diverge [2]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The US economy is showing a decline. The US Q1 real GDP final annualized quarter - on - quarter decline was 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.2%, the first contraction in three years. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014, far exceeding the expected 8.5%. Domestically, China will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share's three major indexes fluctuated downward. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22% to close at 3448.45 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Most sector indexes declined. Bank, communication, and national defense and military industries led the gains, while automobile, non - bank finance, pharmaceutical biology, and beauty care industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, the latest economic data significantly boosted market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, and the three major US stock indexes rose collectively [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the IM basis continued to repair slightly. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IC, and IM decreased [1]. Strategy - The contraction of the US Q1 GDP has further strengthened market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the three major US stock indexes. China's issuance of the third batch of trade - in funds in July is expected to boost domestic demand in the second half of the year. After three consecutive days of rallies, A - shares are adjusting due to overheated sentiment, but are expected to rise after consolidation, with a rising price center and continued sector divergence [2]. Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [4][6][7]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On June 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3448.45, down 0.22%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10343.48, down 0.48%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2114.43, down 0.66%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3946.02, down 0.35%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2738.47, up 1.17%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5838.25, down 0.41%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6247.79, down 0.45% [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF decreased by 38,640 to 84,890, and the open interest decreased by 10,070 to 243,932 [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures showed different changes. For example, the basis of IM continued to repair slightly, with the current - month contract basis rising by 1.17 to - 35.99 [33]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures also changed. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IM increased by 4.80 to - 55.20 [45].
FICC日报:外部仍存不确定性,股指调整-20250611
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and unresolved market sentiment volatility risks, the market is expected to undergo a technical correction after a short-term rapid decline. It is recommended to focus on the layout of large-cap index futures and use small and medium-cap index futures for hedging [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the central budgetary investment for social undertakings is expected to increase by over 30% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan". Policies related to social security, education, and employment are being promoted, and the basic pension for retirees will be moderately raised, with plans to establish a childcare subsidy system. Overseas, the US and Mexico are close to an agreement to cancel a 50% tariff on a certain quantity of steel imports [1] - In the spot market, the three major A-share indices rebounded after hitting bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 3384.82 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.17%. Most sector indices declined, with the beauty care, banking, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while the national defense and military industry, computer, electronics, and communication sectors led the losses. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.63% to 19714.99 points [2] - In the futures market, only the IM basis rebounded. On the trading volume and open interest front, the trading volume of index futures increased on the day, and the open interest of IH and IM rose [2] Strategy - Given the uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and the lingering risks of market sentiment fluctuations, it is expected that after a short-term rapid decline, the market will experience a technical correction. Operationally, it is advisable to focus on the layout of large-cap index futures and use small and medium-cap index futures for hedging [3] Macro Economic Charts - The content mainly lists charts related to the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A-share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share styles [6][10][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on June 10, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.17%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.82%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.92% [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of index futures show that the trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased, and the open interest of IH and IM rose, while that of IF and IC decreased [16] - The basis data of index futures show that only the IM basis increased, while the basis of IF, IH, and IC decreased or changed slightly [36] - The inter - delivery spread data of index futures show the differences and changes in spreads between different delivery months of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43][45]
股指日报:调整尚未到位,建议继续观望-20250605
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 10:49
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, fundamental factors changed little. Against the backdrop of a protracted trade - war, the story of China's asset revaluation driven by fundamental inflection points is difficult to start. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate in June, and a band - operation strategy is recommended [3] - The current stock index rally is mainly driven by retail sentiment and theme speculation, with domestic liquidity as the main source, making the A - share index relatively independent globally. The stock index is at a relatively high position within the oscillation range, and there is a need for further adjustment in technical terms. Considering the high probability of market sentiment cooling in the second quarter historically, it is advisable to wait for a pull - back [3] - For futures operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the lower support level at the position on April 9th. A band - operation strategy is recommended on a monthly basis. For options operations, the implied volatility of stock - index options is oscillating at a low level. The cost of buying options during the waiting period for a breakthrough is expected to be high, and the premium from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for a second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review changes to the FTSE China Index Series, which will take effect after the close on June 20th. Jiangsu Bank will be included in the FTSE China A50 Index, while Great Wall Motor will be removed. A - shares such as BeiGene, Yili Group, SAIC Motor, Seres, and Inovance Technology are included in the candidate list [4] - The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. After the release of the data, US President Trump called for Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates [4] Stock Index Disk Review - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the A - shares rose collectively. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.13%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.78%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.88%. The leisure goods (+3.05%) and motorcycle (+2.56%) sectors led the gains, while the land transportation (-1.15%) and aviation (-1.08%) sectors lagged. More than 3,900 stocks rose, and 87 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a rebound in the profit - making effect [4] - **Technical Analysis**: After a previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap. The pressure at the daily and weekly levels has increased, while the monthly - line shows an oscillating trend [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of A - shares is oscillating at a low level, remaining around 1.1 - 1.2 trillion yuan. Market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of the market is poor [4]