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段永平最新发声:看懂公司远比看懂K线重要
Core Insights - The essence of investing is understanding that buying stocks equates to buying companies, which is a challenging task [1][2] - Investment philosophy emphasizes focusing on a few companies that one truly understands rather than frequent trading [2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is characterized by a focus on understanding business models rather than market predictions or trends [1][2] - The concept of "not investing in what one does not understand" is central to the investment strategy [3][4] - The importance of company culture and user orientation is highlighted, particularly in the case of Apple [3] Group 2: Investment Examples - Notable investments include NetEase, Yahoo, Apple, Kweichow Moutai, and Tencent, with a focus on understanding their business models [2][5] - The investment in NetEase was driven by a strong belief in its gaming team's passion and a favorable business model, resulting in a significant return [2] - Apple's transition from a hardware company to a comprehensive platform was recognized early, leading to a successful investment [2] Group 3: Market Perspective - Current market conditions are approached with caution, particularly regarding the valuation of Apple, which is deemed "not cheap" [5] - The concept of opportunity cost in investment decisions is emphasized, suggesting that sometimes it may not be necessary to invest in high-profile stocks if better returns can be found elsewhere [5]
段永平罕见长谈!“买股票就是买公司,但看懂公司很难”
Core Insights - The essence of investing is to understand the business behind the stock, which is often challenging [1][3] - Investment should focus on a few companies that one truly understands rather than frequent trading [1][2] Investment Philosophy - The principle of "do not invest in what you do not understand" is central to the investment philosophy [3] - Emphasis on corporate culture, particularly user orientation, is crucial for evaluating companies like Apple [4] - The concept of "not doing" is highlighted as a significant factor in avoiding mistakes and enhancing decision-making [4] Investment Experience - Notable investments include early stakes in NetEase, Yahoo, Apple, Kweichow Moutai, and Tencent, with Apple being a significant recent holding [2] - The investment in General Electric is acknowledged as a mistake due to a poor understanding of its business model [2] Advice for Ordinary Investors - Rationality is deemed more important than cleverness in investment decisions [5] - Ordinary investors are encouraged to focus on a few companies they understand rather than spreading their investments too thin [5] - Current market conditions are approached with caution, particularly regarding the valuation of Apple [5] Philanthropic Activities - Recent donations include a 220 million RMB contribution to Beijing Normal University for educational development [6] - A donation of 15 million RMB worth of Kweichow Moutai shares was made to support educational initiatives at Jiangxi University [6]
巴菲特说不懂不投,达里奥做分散配置,两者有矛盾吗?
雪球· 2025-07-10 08:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses two prominent investment philosophies: Warren Buffett's focus on understanding one's own capability circle and Ray Dalio's all-weather diversified allocation strategy, questioning which approach is more beneficial for investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Buffett's principle of "do not invest in what you do not understand" is widely recognized, yet many investors confuse familiarity with true understanding [3][5]. - Dalio's strategy emphasizes diversification, but investors often fall into the trap of diversifying without understanding the underlying correlations, leading to ineffective risk management [5][11]. Group 2: Understanding Risk - True understanding in investing does not equate to predicting price movements; it involves comprehending potential losses and their probabilities [6][9]. - The article highlights that overconfidence stemming from cognitive biases can be more detrimental than a lack of knowledge [8][17]. Group 3: Data Insights - Historical data from 2005 to 2025 indicates that a stock-bond allocation reduces maximum drawdown by 15% compared to a pure A-share investment [16]. - Further diversification into global assets, including U.S. stocks and gold, minimizes drawdown while maintaining returns, validating both Buffett's and Dalio's investment principles [16][17]. Group 4: Bridging Understanding and Diversification - The article suggests that a balanced approach can be achieved by integrating Buffett's focus on understanding with Dalio's diversification, allowing for a more robust risk-return profile [17].
巴菲特的“不懂不投”错了吗?
雪球· 2025-06-21 05:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "don't invest in what you don't understand," challenging its validity and suggesting that many investors may overestimate their understanding of investments [2][4]. Group 1: Understanding Investment - The author argues that the phrase "don't invest in what you don't understand" can hinder individuals from entering the investment world, as everyone starts from a place of ignorance [4]. - It is noted that even successful investors like Warren Buffett do not apply this principle rigidly, as they focus on areas where they have sufficient knowledge and profitability [4]. - The article emphasizes that many individuals mistakenly believe they understand investments, leading to poor decision-making and financial losses [6][12]. Group 2: Survivor Bias - The author highlights the issue of survivor bias, where successful investors' stories are celebrated while failures are often ignored, leading to a skewed perception of investment success [14][16]. - The article points out that those who have failed in investments, such as cryptocurrency or business ventures, often remain silent about their losses, contributing to a misleading narrative [17]. Group 3: Risk Diversification - The author advocates for risk diversification as a valid investment strategy, suggesting that understanding the principles of asset allocation can mitigate risks even if one does not fully comprehend every asset class [19][23]. - It is mentioned that diversification can be a response to the lack of deep understanding of individual investments, allowing for a more balanced approach to risk management [23]. Group 4: Self-Assessment in Investment - The article raises the question of self-awareness among investors, suggesting that many may overestimate their abilities and should consider whether they are truly equipped to compete in crowded markets [25]. - The author reflects on the importance of recognizing one's limitations and opting for diversified strategies to achieve stable, long-term returns rather than chasing high-risk opportunities [26].
上海中广云智投:为什么说“不懂不投”是新手最重要的护城河?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-24 22:51
Group 1 - The principle of "do not invest if you do not understand" serves as a protective measure for novice investors, emphasizing risk control, knowledge accumulation, long-term perspective, and psychological resilience [1][2][7] - New investors often fall into traps due to information asymmetry or blind following, leading to significant losses, as seen in the 2021 cryptocurrency market [2][6] - The principle encourages investors to ask critical questions about asset attributes and risk characteristics before making investment decisions [2][8] Group 2 - Knowledge accumulation is essential for building a cognitive framework, enabling investors to understand industry dynamics and identify companies with core technologies [3][5] - Understanding market signals, such as the inverted yield curve, allows investors to adjust their asset allocations proactively rather than reactively [5][6] - The principle fosters a long-term investment mindset, where understanding the correlation between stock market returns and corporate earnings growth helps investors remain committed during market downturns [6][7] Group 3 - Psychological resilience is crucial in investment, as behavioral biases like overconfidence and loss aversion can lead to poor decision-making [7][8] - The principle helps investors establish decision-making discipline by setting cognitive thresholds, allowing them to filter out market noise [7][8] - By understanding valuation logic, investors can make rational decisions based on fundamentals rather than historical price points [8] Group 4 - The principle of "do not invest if you do not understand" is not conservative but reflects respect for the market and honesty with oneself, promoting a learning-practice-reflection cycle [9] - Investors should be able to answer key questions about a company's revenue generation, industry potential, and risk factors to internalize this principle [9] - Maintaining capital is prioritized over seeking returns, with the principle serving as the first line of defense in wealth preservation [9]