Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment of a bull market in A-shares, characterizing it as a "slow bull" driven by structural improvements in the economy and long-term capital inflows [2][6]. Historical Bull Markets - The article reviews past bull markets in A-shares: - 1999-2001: A leveraged bull market followed by adjustments, driven by speculative trading and lessons learned [4]. - 2005-2007: A comprehensive bull market supported by institutional reforms and macroeconomic prosperity, with blue-chip stocks leading the rally [4]. - 2008-2009: A fundamental bull market driven by economic recovery post-global financial crisis, led by cyclical industries [4]. - 2014-2015: A liquidity-driven bull market characterized by high expectations for reforms but lacking fundamental support, leading to significant corrections [5]. Current Bull Market Characteristics - The current bull market is described as a "systematic slow bull" due to several factors: - The macroeconomic environment has changed, with a focus on structural improvements rather than rapid stimulus [6]. - The nature of capital has shifted from speculative to long-term investments, with state-owned and institutional investors providing stability [7]. - There is a significant reallocation of household assets, with a large amount of savings seeking new investment avenues, particularly in the stock market [7]. - Ongoing industrial upgrades are evident, with advancements in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy sectors contributing to economic growth [8]. Investment Directions - The article identifies two main investment directions: - **Hardcore High Technology**: Focus on new economy sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, renewable energy, and semiconductors, which are expected to be core assets for the next decade [11]. - **Super High Dividends**: Investment in traditional sectors like finance, machinery, and cyclical industries, which have potential for valuation recovery as long as the economy remains stable [12]. - The overall market logic suggests a "systematic bull market" driven by China's rise and advantages, emphasizing the importance of finding personal wealth opportunities within this "slow bull" environment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance differences among various index funds, particularly focusing on the volatility and returns of large-cap and small-cap indices over the past decade, highlighting the challenges in choosing the best investment strategy among them [3][5][24]. Performance Analysis of Different Indices - Historical data shows significant performance disparities among indices of different sizes over the past ten years, with the 中证2000 exhibiting the highest volatility and returns during bullish phases, while the 沪深300 remains relatively stable [5][7]. - The 中证全指 demonstrates a balanced performance, generally staying within a moderate range with fewer extreme fluctuations compared to other indices [5][7]. Bull Market Performance - In 2014, all five indices saw substantial gains, with 沪深300 and 中证2000 both around 50%, while 中证全指, 中证500, and 中证1000 had returns between 30%-45% [10]. - The year 2015 marked extreme differentiation, with 中证2000 soaring over 100%, while 沪深300 showed minimal growth [11]. - In 2019, all indices rose moderately, with gains concentrated in the 20%-35% range, favoring 沪深300 and 中证全指 slightly [12]. - The year 2020 saw a general tightening of gains, with most indices recording increases between 10%-20%, and 沪深300 slightly outperforming small-cap indices [13]. Bear Market Performance - During bear markets, indices generally experienced significant declines, with the depth of the drop closely related to market capitalization structure [17]. - In 2016, the 中证全指 and 沪深300 fell by 5%-8%, while 中证500 and 中证1000 dropped by 10%-15%, and 中证2000 remained relatively stable [17]. - The year 2018 witnessed a severe downturn, with 中证1000 and 中证2000 suffering losses of nearly 40% and over 35%, respectively, while large-cap indices also faced declines exceeding 25% [18]. - In 2022, all indices recorded declines in the 15%-25% range, with small-cap indices and 中证全指 experiencing slightly larger drops, while 沪深300 fared better [19]. - In 2023, most indices recorded slight declines or remained flat, with only 中证2000 achieving approximately 2% positive returns, indicating that small-cap indices often bear greater adjustment pressure in bear markets [20]. Summary of Returns and Volatility - 中证2000 has the highest cumulative return at nearly 197% with an annualized return of 10.19% and a volatility of 28.26%, indicating high elasticity and risk [23]. - 中证全指 and 沪深300 show long-term returns of 84.46% and 79.11%, respectively, with annualized returns in the 5%-6% range and lower volatility, reflecting stability and balanced returns [23]. - 中证500 and 中证1000 fall in between, with cumulative returns of 67.92% and 55.63%, annualized returns slightly below 5%, and volatility ranging from 21%-27% [23]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article suggests that small-cap indices perform better during favorable market conditions but come with higher volatility and drawdown risks, while large-cap and broad-based indices offer more stable returns [24]. - A diversified investment approach, such as balancing large-cap and small-cap allocations and integrating growth and value styles, is recommended to enhance adaptability across different market conditions [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a solution to the challenges faced by investors, advocating for a structured approach to investment through the "Snowball Three-Point Method" which focuses on diversification and long-term strategies [3][6]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Many investors fall into common traps such as believing they can time the market perfectly, leading to poor decision-making and losses [5]. - Data indicates that most investors fail to outperform the funds themselves, not due to poor fund selection, but because they struggle to hold onto their investments [5]. Group 2: Snowball Three-Point Method - The core principle of the Snowball Three-Point Method is summarized in twelve words: "Do not predict, only respond, diversify investments, and win passively" [8]. - The method includes three types of diversification: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [9]. Group 3: Asset Diversification - Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) have distinct return characteristics and low correlation, which helps in risk hedging [10]. - Historical correlation analysis from 2003 to 2023 shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities have low correlations, indicating the benefits of diversified asset allocation [11]. Group 4: Market Diversification - Global economic conditions lead to varying asset performance across different markets, which can further smooth out portfolio volatility [12]. - Correlation analysis from 2021 to 2024 shows that different global indices exhibit low to negative correlations, reinforcing the need for market diversification [13]. Group 5: Time Diversification - Regular investment through methods like dollar-cost averaging can mitigate the risks associated with market timing [14]. - Time diversification allows investors to achieve an average market cost over time, reducing the impact of volatility [15]. Group 6: Dynamic Adjustment and Rebalancing - Initial asset allocation should not be static; adjustments should be made based on changing asset performance and market conditions [16]. - Dynamic rebalancing helps maintain the original asset allocation ratios, facilitating a buy-low, sell-high strategy [17][18]. Group 7: Practical Implementation of the Three-Point Method - The implementation involves three steps: risk assessment to customize investment plans, selecting funds from a curated pool, and ongoing dynamic rebalancing [20][22][26]. - The article provides examples of asset allocation strategies for different risk profiles, illustrating how to construct a personalized investment portfolio [21]. Group 8: Half-Position Strategy - The half-position strategy balances market exposure and risk, allowing for flexibility in responding to market fluctuations [29]. - This strategy involves maintaining a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income, which helps manage both risk and opportunity [30]. Group 9: Specific Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended allocation includes 50% in fixed income (with a focus on domestic bonds), 45% in equities (with a mix of domestic and international), and 5% in commodities, primarily gold [32][34][35]. - The rationale for these allocations is based on current market conditions, expected returns, and risk considerations [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that having a small capital base should not justify reckless investment behavior. Instead, it advocates for a disciplined, long-term investment strategy that focuses on gradual accumulation and learning from the market [5][9]. Group 1: Investment Behavior and Psychology - Small capital accounts are more prone to losses due to impulsive trading behaviors, such as frequent buying and selling, heavy betting, and chasing market trends [10][12]. - Many small investors fall into the trap of survivor bias, believing that they can replicate the success of a few lucky individuals without recognizing the majority who fail [15][16]. - Common psychological and behavioral pitfalls include treating small capital as "trial money," neglecting primary income sources, entering the market unprepared, and allowing emotions to dictate trading decisions [17][18][19][20][21]. Group 2: Correct Investment Path - The article suggests that investors with limited capital should focus on building their skills and knowledge rather than seeking quick profits. This includes prioritizing stable cash flow from primary income sources [24][25]. - It recommends starting with small, consistent investments in broad-based ETFs to develop a disciplined approach to market fluctuations and emotional responses [26][27][28]. - As capital grows, investors should consider constructing a diversified asset portfolio while maintaining a focus on minimizing mistakes rather than chasing high returns [29][31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's investment experiences over the years, highlighting key mistakes and lessons learned from various market conditions and personal decisions [2][5][9][11]. Group 1: Investment Mistakes and Lessons - The first significant mistake occurred in 1992 when the author missed the opportunity to invest in stock subscription certificates, which skyrocketed in value, illustrating the importance of timely decision-making [3][4]. - The second mistake happened in 2008 during the financial crisis, where the author believed in a market rebound due to the Beijing Olympics, leading to significant losses after initially avoiding the downturn [6][8]. - The third mistake in 2012 involved relying on a perceived market pattern, which resulted in losses when an unexpected market downturn occurred, emphasizing the unpredictability of markets [10][11]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Reactions - The 2008 financial crisis was marked by a significant drop in stock values, with the author managing to limit losses through strategic shifts to bonds, showcasing the importance of asset allocation during downturns [6][7][8]. - The 2012 market conditions were characterized by a false sense of security based on historical data, which led to a quick reversal of gains when the market unexpectedly declined [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article discusses the strategy of investing in closed-end funds and bonds during market downturns, highlighting the benefits of diversifying investments to mitigate risks [6][7]. - The author also reflects on the importance of independent thinking and not succumbing to social pressures or market sentiment, which can lead to poor investment decisions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, particularly through the "three-part method," which has yielded a cumulative return of 9.32% this year, outperforming the benchmark index of 7.85% and the CSI 300's return of 5.11% [3][5]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - The use of the CSI 300 as a performance benchmark is deemed unfair for diversified portfolios, as the CSI 300 primarily represents large-cap stocks in traditional sectors like banking and energy [7][12]. - A multi-asset strategy, which includes stocks, bonds, and commodities, has shown superior performance over the past seven years, with a cumulative return of nearly 100% and an annualized return exceeding 10%, compared to the CSI 300's cumulative return of only 3.96% [14][16]. - The article highlights that during periods of market volatility, a diversified approach tends to outperform the CSI 300, while in strong bull markets, single-asset strategies may yield higher returns [15][21]. Group 2: Investment Methodology - Investors are encouraged to understand the risk-return characteristics of different strategies through performance benchmarks, which can help them identify suitable investment methodologies [19][20]. - The article notes that the CSI 300 has an annualized return of approximately 8% over the last 20 years, but with a maximum drawdown exceeding 70%, indicating a high-risk profile [20]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy can mitigate risks associated with market downturns while still achieving reasonable returns, suggesting a more favorable risk-return ratio compared to concentrated investments in the CSI 300 [21]. Group 3: Three-Part Method for Asset Allocation - The "three-part method" allows investors to customize their asset allocation based on their risk tolerance and return expectations, with a typical allocation being 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% commodities [22][24]. - The article provides a detailed example of a diversified portfolio, including specific fund allocations, which aims to balance risk and return effectively [30]. - The three-part method promotes long-term investment through diversification across different asset classes, markets, and timing, thereby enhancing the potential for returns while reducing overall risk [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of a diversified asset allocation strategy, referred to as the "three-part method," which has yielded a cumulative return of 8.88% as of July 25, 2022, despite market volatility [1][4][9]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - The "three-part method" has consistently achieved stable returns through gradual increases, with daily returns often reflecting a slow but steady growth pattern [4][6]. - Monthly performance data indicates that only January and April experienced slight declines, with January down by -0.03% and April down by -0.1%, while the broader market faced more significant downturns [6][9]. - The strategy has demonstrated resilience during market fluctuations, maintaining positive returns even when major indices like the NASDAQ experienced declines exceeding 8% [9][10]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - The proposed asset allocation consists of 60% equity funds, 30% bond funds, and 10% commodity funds, designed to balance risk and return [14][15]. - Specific fund allocations include a mix of domestic and international assets, such as the E Fund Zhongdai New Composite Index and the Guotai Junan CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Fund, each contributing to the overall strategy [11][15]. - The strategy aims to capture diverse market trends and reduce correlation among asset classes, enhancing the long-term success rate of the portfolio [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The article advocates for a high win-rate investment approach rather than chasing high-risk, high-reward opportunities, which often lead to losses [17][22]. - It highlights the importance of patience and a long-term perspective in investing, contrasting with the allure of quick wealth through speculative strategies [21][22]. - The "three-part method" is positioned as a sustainable investment strategy that allows for gradual wealth accumulation through diversified and balanced asset allocation [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a "anti-fragile" investment strategy that can withstand market volatility and uncertainties, rather than relying on predictions which often lead to losses [3][4]. Group 1: Risks and Predictions - Risks in the capital market are unpredictable, and relying on personal predictions often results in losses [5][10]. - Notable investors like Ray Dalio have shown that even successful predictions can lead to significant losses if the broader market dynamics are not considered [6][9]. - The complexity of the market makes it difficult for most investors to accurately predict outcomes, leading to a reliance on flawed assumptions [9][10]. Group 2: Asset Diversification - Concentrated investments in a single asset class increase vulnerability; thus, diversification is essential to enhance the overall resilience of an investment strategy [11][14]. - Dalio's "All Weather" strategy exemplifies effective diversification across various asset classes, which can mitigate unpredictable risks [14]. - Historical events, such as the 2008 financial crisis, demonstrate the benefits of a diversified approach, where certain assets can perform well while others decline [14]. Group 3: Investment Discipline and Strategies - The article outlines several strategies to benefit from market volatility, including dollar-cost averaging (DCA), dynamic rebalancing, and seizing opportunities during market downturns [15][18][20]. - DCA allows investors to lower their average cost per share by investing consistently over time, regardless of market conditions [15][17]. - Dynamic rebalancing helps investors capitalize on price fluctuations between different asset classes, promoting a buy-low, sell-high approach [18][19]. - Actively increasing exposure to undervalued assets during market corrections can enhance overall portfolio returns [20][21]. Group 4: Practical Application - The "Three Parts Method" proposed by the company encourages long-term investment through asset, market, and timing diversification [26]. - The article provides an example of a successful investment strategy yielding close to 8% returns in a volatile market through disciplined investment and rebalancing [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of taking profits in investment, highlighting that without realizing gains, profits are not truly earned [3][4] - The article discusses the challenges of profit-taking, particularly in value investing, where investors struggle to determine when to sell, often leading to poor decision-making [5][8] - It introduces the concept of asset allocation as a solution to the difficulties of profit-taking, suggesting that diversifying investments across multiple asset classes can simplify decision-making [9][10] Group 2 - The article explains dynamic rebalancing as a strategy that allows investors to manage their portfolios without needing to make complex decisions about individual asset prices [10][12] - It outlines the benefits of dynamic rebalancing, stating that it can generate positive returns even in sideways markets by capturing price fluctuations between different assets [13] - The article provides methods for executing dynamic rebalancing, including time-based and price-based approaches, to maintain the desired asset allocation [16][18][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of effective diversification, recommending a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities to enhance the chances of successful rebalancing [14] - It suggests that investors can utilize tools like the "three-part method" for asset allocation, which helps in assessing the correlation between different assets [14][24] - The article concludes by promoting the use of automated reminders and services to assist investors in maintaining their asset allocation strategy [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of DIY asset allocation for ordinary investors, suggesting that it can outperform actively managed funds and benchmark indices, as evidenced by a 6.23% return in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Advantages of DIY Asset Allocation - **Advantage 1: Unrestricted Investment Scope** DIY asset allocation allows investors to diversify across various asset classes without the constraints faced by mutual funds, which are limited by their contracts [5][6]. This flexibility enables investors to capitalize on different economic cycles and opportunities, such as stocks during economic upturns and bonds during downturns [8]. - **Advantage 2: Flexible Position Adjustment** Investors can adjust their asset allocation more freely compared to mutual fund managers, who face strict position limits. This flexibility allows for better risk management during market volatility [9][10]. - **Advantage 3: Aligned Interests** DIY investors do not face the same pressures as fund managers, such as short-term performance metrics and management fees tied to fund size. This allows for a focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to cater to market trends [11][12]. Group 2: Steps for Asset Allocation - **Step 1: Risk Assessment** The first step involves completing a risk assessment to determine the investor's risk tolerance, expected returns, and investment duration, which informs the optimal asset allocation [13]. - **Step 2: Create a Low-Correlation Asset Allocation Plan** A diversified portfolio should include assets with low correlation to mitigate risk. For example, a combination of bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and gold can provide a balanced approach [15][18]. - **Step 3: Initiate Regular Investment** After establishing the asset allocation plan, investors should engage in regular investments (dollar-cost averaging) to minimize emotional decision-making and benefit from market averages [23][24]. - **Step 4: Dynamic Rebalancing** Investors can manage their portfolios more dynamically, taking advantage of price discrepancies among low-correlation assets. This involves selling overvalued assets and buying undervalued ones, facilitated by alerts for rebalancing [25][26]. Group 3: Additional Services - The article mentions that using the proposed asset allocation method provides additional services such as monthly reports, real-time asset diagnostics, and personalized support, enhancing the investment experience [29]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The "three-part method" promotes a philosophy of long-term investment and asset allocation, focusing on diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve a balanced risk-return profile [30].