雪球三分法

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最好的投资方法,往往是看起来最平庸的那个!这本书揭示了投资最本质的真相
雪球· 2025-10-04 13:00
Core Viewpoint - The essence of investing lies in overcoming human emotions of greed and fear, emphasizing the importance of patience and common sense in wealth accumulation [4][11][19]. Group 1: The Power of Compounding - Compounding is often misunderstood but is a powerful tool for wealth growth, with the "72 Rule" allowing investors to estimate how long it will take for their money to double based on annual returns [6][7]. - For example, an annual return of 5% takes approximately 14.4 years to double, while 8% only takes about 9 years [7]. - A historical case illustrates the power of compounding: Benjamin Franklin's $5,000 gift grew to $2 million after 200 years due to compounding [10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The best investment approach is often the simplest, with a focus on index funds and dollar-cost averaging to mitigate emotional decision-making [19][32]. - Investors should diversify their portfolios to include various asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and cash reserves, to manage risk effectively [23][25]. - Regular rebalancing of the portfolio helps maintain desired asset allocation and counteracts emotional biases during market fluctuations [27][30]. Group 3: Personal Development as Investment - Investing in oneself yields the highest returns, with activities such as reading, skill acquisition, and maintaining health contributing to long-term wealth and opportunity [33][41]. - The journey to wealth is straightforward: save money, start investing in index funds, maintain discipline, and continuously improve personal knowledge and skills [39].
别再瞎买基金!雪球三分法:用「三招分散术」躺赢长期市场,新手也能避开 90% 的坑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 16:46
Core Concept - The article introduces the "Xueqiu Three-Point Method," which aims to help ordinary investors manage risks and enhance returns through diversified investment strategies [2][3][4] Group 1: Asset Diversification - Investors should avoid concentrating their funds in a single type of fund, similar to how a balanced diet includes various food groups [2] - Suggested asset allocation ratios include aggressive investors at 5:3:2 and conservative investors at 3:5:2, allowing for risk mitigation even if one asset class declines [2] Group 2: Market Diversification - Investors are encouraged to look beyond the A-share market and consider global markets to reduce risks associated with a single market downturn [3] - Utilizing ETFs like the Nasdaq Index ETF or S&P 500 Index ETF can help investors spread their investments across different regions, providing a buffer during local market adjustments [3] Group 3: Timing Diversification - The article advocates for dollar-cost averaging through regular investments, which helps avoid the pitfalls of trying to time the market [4] - By consistently investing a fixed amount regardless of market conditions, investors can average their costs over time, reducing the impact of volatility [4] Group 4: Overall Investment Philosophy - The "Xueqiu Three-Point Method" emphasizes building a risk-resistant investment framework rather than seeking quick profits [4] - This approach is designed for ordinary investors who may lack the resources or expertise to engage in active trading, promoting a long-term investment mindset [4]
如何用傻瓜式的方法,跑赢大多数专业投资者?
雪球· 2025-09-25 13:00
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者: 极简投资人 来源:雪球 一 、 我们都是投资中的傻瓜 投资是一个全世界的人都不得不参与的比赛 , 但是这个比赛很残酷 , 只有极少的人能够实实在在赚到钱 。 有一句话比较有意思 , 如果你在牌桌上玩了一会 , 没有看出来谁是傻瓜 , 那么你就是那个傻瓜 。 对于大多数人而言 , 我们都是傻瓜 。 如果你通过预测市场涨跌来进行投资 , 那你就是在和世界范围内最聪明 、 最有耐心 、 资金最雄厚的人来对弈 , 他们无论为在能力 , 经验 , 资源 , 精力方面完全碾压你 , 想从他们手中赚绝对收益或者超过收益是不可能的事情 。 想要投资赚钱 , 必须要承认自己的弱小 , 才能有所敬畏 , 有所不为 。 二 、 能立于不败之地的资产配置方案 那么 , 对于个人投资者 , 想玩这个游戏还能立于不败之地吗 , 达利欧给出的答案是可以 , 就是全天候配置 。 每类资产长期看都是能挣到钱的 , 但是中间的波动和回撤太大 , 以至于让很多人拿不住 , 赚不到钱 。 每种资产虽然波动大 , 但是都会适应 某种市场环境 。 | | 增长 | 通胀 | | --- | --- | --- ...
思想挑战,长期投资是不是应该全配置股票?
雪球· 2025-09-05 08:08
Group 1 - The traditional view suggests that individuals should adjust their investment strategy from stocks to bonds as they age, with a focus on capital preservation in retirement [5][6] - This conventional wisdom is challenged by recent research indicating that maintaining a high allocation to stocks throughout one's life may be more beneficial [8][9] - The study found that an optimal investment portfolio could consist of nearly 100% stocks, with a significant portion in international equities, while bonds could be minimized [9][10] Group 2 - The long-term returns on bonds are relatively low and susceptible to inflation, undermining the perceived safety of bonds over extended periods [10] - Surprisingly, a portfolio with nearly all stocks has a lower probability of running out of money in retirement compared to the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds strategy, with a bankruptcy probability of only 6.7% [10] - The research emphasizes that the real risk lies not in stock investments but in withdrawal strategies during market downturns, suggesting alternative methods for managing withdrawals to preserve capital [12][13] Group 3 - The study proposes that retirees should consider keeping several years' worth of living expenses in cash or money market funds to avoid selling stocks at a loss during market declines [12] - Dynamic withdrawal strategies, which adjust the amount withdrawn based on current asset values, can help sustain funds over the long term [12][13] - While the research presents a compelling case for a stock-heavy portfolio, it also highlights the importance of having a diversified investment approach to provide flexibility and security in extreme market conditions [14]
3800点,哪些指数还可以继续关注?
雪球· 2025-09-04 07:48
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investment is based on future expectations, while valuation is a retrospective indicator, making investment decisions based solely on valuation highly limited [3]. Group 1: Valuation and Index Performance - Comparing valuation growth with index growth provides significant insights into the health of index increases and whether they are driven by earnings or valuation [4][5]. - If valuation growth closely matches index growth, the increase is primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings [6]. - A situation where valuation growth exceeds index growth indicates that the index's rise is entirely driven by valuation, often accompanied by negative earnings growth [6][7]. - Conversely, if valuation growth is smaller than index growth, the increase is primarily driven by earnings, which is considered a healthier and more sustainable rise [7]. Group 2: Recent Index Performance Analysis - Since September 24 of the previous year, major A-share indices have seen increases primarily driven by valuation growth, with significant contributions from indices like the Dividend Low Volatility and the CSI 500, where valuation growth greatly exceeded index growth [9][10]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices have experienced increases primarily driven by earnings growth, with minimal valuation changes [10][11]. Group 3: Phase-by-Phase Index Performance - An analysis of index performance from September 24 to April 30 shows that A-share indices like the CSI 500 and Dividend Low Volatility were entirely driven by valuation growth, with earnings showing negative growth [12][14]. - From April 30 to August 29, A-share indices continued to see increases primarily driven by valuation growth, while the Hang Seng Technology indices experienced increases largely driven by earnings [17][19]. Group 4: Investment Viability - A review of the health of index increases and historical valuation percentiles indicates that most A-share indices are at high valuation levels, suggesting that further investment may not be supported by retrospective indicators [21][22]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices are at significantly undervalued positions, indicating better investment potential due to their earnings-driven growth [23][24]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are at high valuation levels, with recent performance primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of their growth [25][26].
为什么说这次是慢牛?
雪球· 2025-08-22 04:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment of a bull market in A-shares, characterizing it as a "slow bull" driven by structural improvements in the economy and long-term capital inflows [2][6]. Historical Bull Markets - The article reviews past bull markets in A-shares: - 1999-2001: A leveraged bull market followed by adjustments, driven by speculative trading and lessons learned [4]. - 2005-2007: A comprehensive bull market supported by institutional reforms and macroeconomic prosperity, with blue-chip stocks leading the rally [4]. - 2008-2009: A fundamental bull market driven by economic recovery post-global financial crisis, led by cyclical industries [4]. - 2014-2015: A liquidity-driven bull market characterized by high expectations for reforms but lacking fundamental support, leading to significant corrections [5]. Current Bull Market Characteristics - The current bull market is described as a "systematic slow bull" due to several factors: - The macroeconomic environment has changed, with a focus on structural improvements rather than rapid stimulus [6]. - The nature of capital has shifted from speculative to long-term investments, with state-owned and institutional investors providing stability [7]. - There is a significant reallocation of household assets, with a large amount of savings seeking new investment avenues, particularly in the stock market [7]. - Ongoing industrial upgrades are evident, with advancements in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy sectors contributing to economic growth [8]. Investment Directions - The article identifies two main investment directions: - **Hardcore High Technology**: Focus on new economy sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, renewable energy, and semiconductors, which are expected to be core assets for the next decade [11]. - **Super High Dividends**: Investment in traditional sectors like finance, machinery, and cyclical industries, which have potential for valuation recovery as long as the economy remains stable [12]. - The overall market logic suggests a "systematic bull market" driven by China's rise and advantages, emphasizing the importance of finding personal wealth opportunities within this "slow bull" environment [12].
买了指数基金就不用分散投资吗?
雪球· 2025-08-16 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance differences among various index funds, particularly focusing on the volatility and returns of large-cap and small-cap indices over the past decade, highlighting the challenges in choosing the best investment strategy among them [3][5][24]. Performance Analysis of Different Indices - Historical data shows significant performance disparities among indices of different sizes over the past ten years, with the 中证2000 exhibiting the highest volatility and returns during bullish phases, while the 沪深300 remains relatively stable [5][7]. - The 中证全指 demonstrates a balanced performance, generally staying within a moderate range with fewer extreme fluctuations compared to other indices [5][7]. Bull Market Performance - In 2014, all five indices saw substantial gains, with 沪深300 and 中证2000 both around 50%, while 中证全指, 中证500, and 中证1000 had returns between 30%-45% [10]. - The year 2015 marked extreme differentiation, with 中证2000 soaring over 100%, while 沪深300 showed minimal growth [11]. - In 2019, all indices rose moderately, with gains concentrated in the 20%-35% range, favoring 沪深300 and 中证全指 slightly [12]. - The year 2020 saw a general tightening of gains, with most indices recording increases between 10%-20%, and 沪深300 slightly outperforming small-cap indices [13]. Bear Market Performance - During bear markets, indices generally experienced significant declines, with the depth of the drop closely related to market capitalization structure [17]. - In 2016, the 中证全指 and 沪深300 fell by 5%-8%, while 中证500 and 中证1000 dropped by 10%-15%, and 中证2000 remained relatively stable [17]. - The year 2018 witnessed a severe downturn, with 中证1000 and 中证2000 suffering losses of nearly 40% and over 35%, respectively, while large-cap indices also faced declines exceeding 25% [18]. - In 2022, all indices recorded declines in the 15%-25% range, with small-cap indices and 中证全指 experiencing slightly larger drops, while 沪深300 fared better [19]. - In 2023, most indices recorded slight declines or remained flat, with only 中证2000 achieving approximately 2% positive returns, indicating that small-cap indices often bear greater adjustment pressure in bear markets [20]. Summary of Returns and Volatility - 中证2000 has the highest cumulative return at nearly 197% with an annualized return of 10.19% and a volatility of 28.26%, indicating high elasticity and risk [23]. - 中证全指 and 沪深300 show long-term returns of 84.46% and 79.11%, respectively, with annualized returns in the 5%-6% range and lower volatility, reflecting stability and balanced returns [23]. - 中证500 and 中证1000 fall in between, with cumulative returns of 67.92% and 55.63%, annualized returns slightly below 5%, and volatility ranging from 21%-27% [23]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article suggests that small-cap indices perform better during favorable market conditions but come with higher volatility and drawdown risks, while large-cap and broad-based indices offer more stable returns [24]. - A diversified investment approach, such as balancing large-cap and small-cap allocations and integrating growth and value styles, is recommended to enhance adaptability across different market conditions [24].
一买就跌?一卖就涨?散户最头疼的问题,这篇给你讲透!
雪球· 2025-08-13 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a solution to the challenges faced by investors, advocating for a structured approach to investment through the "Snowball Three-Point Method" which focuses on diversification and long-term strategies [3][6]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Many investors fall into common traps such as believing they can time the market perfectly, leading to poor decision-making and losses [5]. - Data indicates that most investors fail to outperform the funds themselves, not due to poor fund selection, but because they struggle to hold onto their investments [5]. Group 2: Snowball Three-Point Method - The core principle of the Snowball Three-Point Method is summarized in twelve words: "Do not predict, only respond, diversify investments, and win passively" [8]. - The method includes three types of diversification: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [9]. Group 3: Asset Diversification - Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) have distinct return characteristics and low correlation, which helps in risk hedging [10]. - Historical correlation analysis from 2003 to 2023 shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities have low correlations, indicating the benefits of diversified asset allocation [11]. Group 4: Market Diversification - Global economic conditions lead to varying asset performance across different markets, which can further smooth out portfolio volatility [12]. - Correlation analysis from 2021 to 2024 shows that different global indices exhibit low to negative correlations, reinforcing the need for market diversification [13]. Group 5: Time Diversification - Regular investment through methods like dollar-cost averaging can mitigate the risks associated with market timing [14]. - Time diversification allows investors to achieve an average market cost over time, reducing the impact of volatility [15]. Group 6: Dynamic Adjustment and Rebalancing - Initial asset allocation should not be static; adjustments should be made based on changing asset performance and market conditions [16]. - Dynamic rebalancing helps maintain the original asset allocation ratios, facilitating a buy-low, sell-high strategy [17][18]. Group 7: Practical Implementation of the Three-Point Method - The implementation involves three steps: risk assessment to customize investment plans, selecting funds from a curated pool, and ongoing dynamic rebalancing [20][22][26]. - The article provides examples of asset allocation strategies for different risk profiles, illustrating how to construct a personalized investment portfolio [21]. Group 8: Half-Position Strategy - The half-position strategy balances market exposure and risk, allowing for flexibility in responding to market fluctuations [29]. - This strategy involves maintaining a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income, which helps manage both risk and opportunity [30]. Group 9: Specific Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended allocation includes 50% in fixed income (with a focus on domestic bonds), 45% in equities (with a mix of domestic and international), and 5% in commodities, primarily gold [32][34][35]. - The rationale for these allocations is based on current market conditions, expected returns, and risk considerations [33][36].
本金少,就想搏一把?我劝你静一静
雪球· 2025-08-07 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that having a small capital base should not justify reckless investment behavior. Instead, it advocates for a disciplined, long-term investment strategy that focuses on gradual accumulation and learning from the market [5][9]. Group 1: Investment Behavior and Psychology - Small capital accounts are more prone to losses due to impulsive trading behaviors, such as frequent buying and selling, heavy betting, and chasing market trends [10][12]. - Many small investors fall into the trap of survivor bias, believing that they can replicate the success of a few lucky individuals without recognizing the majority who fail [15][16]. - Common psychological and behavioral pitfalls include treating small capital as "trial money," neglecting primary income sources, entering the market unprepared, and allowing emotions to dictate trading decisions [17][18][19][20][21]. Group 2: Correct Investment Path - The article suggests that investors with limited capital should focus on building their skills and knowledge rather than seeking quick profits. This includes prioritizing stable cash flow from primary income sources [24][25]. - It recommends starting with small, consistent investments in broad-based ETFs to develop a disciplined approach to market fluctuations and emotional responses [26][27][28]. - As capital grows, investors should consider constructing a diversified asset portfolio while maintaining a focus on minimizing mistakes rather than chasing high returns [29][31][32].
我在投资上犯过的错
雪球· 2025-08-03 05:33
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's investment experiences over the years, highlighting key mistakes and lessons learned from various market conditions and personal decisions [2][5][9][11]. Group 1: Investment Mistakes and Lessons - The first significant mistake occurred in 1992 when the author missed the opportunity to invest in stock subscription certificates, which skyrocketed in value, illustrating the importance of timely decision-making [3][4]. - The second mistake happened in 2008 during the financial crisis, where the author believed in a market rebound due to the Beijing Olympics, leading to significant losses after initially avoiding the downturn [6][8]. - The third mistake in 2012 involved relying on a perceived market pattern, which resulted in losses when an unexpected market downturn occurred, emphasizing the unpredictability of markets [10][11]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Reactions - The 2008 financial crisis was marked by a significant drop in stock values, with the author managing to limit losses through strategic shifts to bonds, showcasing the importance of asset allocation during downturns [6][7][8]. - The 2012 market conditions were characterized by a false sense of security based on historical data, which led to a quick reversal of gains when the market unexpectedly declined [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article discusses the strategy of investing in closed-end funds and bonds during market downturns, highlighting the benefits of diversifying investments to mitigate risks [6][7]. - The author also reflects on the importance of independent thinking and not succumbing to social pressures or market sentiment, which can lead to poor investment decisions [9].