1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for propylene remains strong, and downstream demand is maintained by rigid needs [1] - On the supply side, the restart of Wanhua Penglai's PDH unit is expected, but the actual supply increase may be slow due to the rising propane price and pressured PDH profits. The supply is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, downstream rigid demand provides support, but the demand may be limited as propylene prices rise. The main drivers in the future are the trends of crude oil and propane in the cost - end, the maintenance status of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production resumption under cost pressure [2] - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, due to high geopolitical uncertainties and acceptable supply - demand support, propylene prices may fluctuate and strengthen following the cost side. No strategies are provided for inter - period and cross - variety trading [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, the spread between 03 - 04 contracts, the spread between PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices in East, Shandong, and South China [1][5][11][13][15] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [19][22][26][29][32] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][36][37][44][50][53][57][58] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Includes propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [60][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of propylene are still supported, but attention should be paid to the cost - side fluctuations. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, the downstream rigid demand continues to support, but the demand follow - up may be limited after the profit is compressed. The cost - side fluctuations are intensifying, and the future main drivers lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants, and the start - up follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure [1][2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the single - side trading. There is no suggestion for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the spread between the 03 - 04 contracts of propylene, the spread between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [6][8][15] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [21][23][29] III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - The report shows figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][49] IV. Propylene Inventory - Figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory are presented [66]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market faces continuous supply pressure and weakens in a volatile manner. The overall propylene production remains high, and the supply pressure persists. Although the overall downstream operation has slightly increased, the cost pressure restricts the demand recovery, and the demand support is limited. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants in the future [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5,632 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 5,850 yuan/ton (-75), the spot price in North China is 5,810 yuan/ton (-80), the basis in East China is 218 yuan/ton (-60), the basis in North China is -114 yuan/ton (-118), the operating rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 202 US dollars/ton (-9), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 50 US dollars/ton (-4), the import profit is -320 yuan/ton (+4), and the in - plant inventory is 46,560 tons (+600) [1] - **Propylene Downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 37% (-2.62%), and the production profit is -80 yuan/ton (+80); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 76% (+0%), and the production profit is -276 yuan/ton (-30); the operating rate of n - butanol is 78% (+9%), and the production profit is 336 yuan/ton (+100); the operating rate of octanol is 82% (+5%), and the production profit is 545 yuan/ton (+58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is 372 yuan/ton (+28); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 81% (+0%), and the production profit is -466 yuan/ton (+91); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 76% (-4%), and the production profit is -902 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall propylene production remains at a high level. The short - term loss and maintenance of PDH are not obvious, and some integrated enterprises stop PP production and release propylene. The commercial sales volume of propylene may continue to increase, and the supply pressure persists [2] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operation has slightly increased. Among them, the operating rate of butanol - octanol has increased the most due to the restart of maintenance plants, while the operating rate of phenol - acetone has decreased significantly. Due to serious profit inversion, the main PP powder plants have reduced production or stopped production, and the operating rate of the main downstream PP powder has continued to decline. The operating rate of propylene oxide remains stable. In the future, the cost pressure on the downstream will still restrict the demand recovery, and the demand support for propylene is limited [2] - **Cost Side**: The international oil price has rebounded recently, and the price of propane in the overseas market has also increased. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. As the supply and demand remain loose and the downstream support weakens, the market will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. Wait for marginal plant maintenance [3] - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-21 丙烯下游整体开工环比上升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5871元/吨（+31），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5940元/吨（-10）， 丙烯华东基差54元/吨（-31），丙烯华北基差56元/吨（-12）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR152 美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（+1），进口利润-241元/吨（+9），厂内库存45040吨（-2150）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率47%（+3.02%），生产利润-210元/吨（+20）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润 647元/吨（+8）；正丁醇开工率82%（-2%），生产利润-295元/吨（+6）；辛醇开工率77%（+8%），生产利润-249元/ 吨（+57）；丙烯酸开工率73%（-2%），生产利润543元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-316元/吨（-43）； 酚酮开工率79%（+12%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 周内上游检修增多，丙烯开工环比下滑，而下游复产整体开工回升， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for propylene is "Bullish" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of delivery games on the futures price may be greater than that of fundamentals [1] - Propylene supply is expected to be loose in October and then become tight in November - December [2] - Propylene demand is expected to maintain a high growth rate in Q4, but the high - demand growth under the involution situation will have limited effect on boosting prices and will indirectly suppress the upper limit of propylene prices [3] - In the first delivery game of propylene futures, a long - position strategy should be adopted [4] - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PL2601 contract after November; for the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to narrow the PP - PL spread after the propylene spot price bottoms out in October and the PP - PL spot spread recovers to around 500 - 600 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - Propylene valuation was weak first and then strong in Q3. From July to early August, propylene prices followed the decline of propane and polypropylene. Since mid - August, due to unexpected maintenance of main devices, the propylene spot price jumped and remained high. Recently, the spread between polypropylene and propylene has slightly recovered [15] - On the first trading day of propylene futures, the listed price was 6,350 yuan/ton. The market thought the spread was too high. The price jumped 200 points in the call auction session. Later, the basis and term structure changed with the "anti - involution" market [17] - Since the listing of propylene futures, the pricing method has been "PP futures -盘面 processing fee". The correlation between the futures and spot processing fees is fair, but the absolute values are quite different [20] 3.2 Supply Side - The short - term supply return has little uncertainty, and device disturbances may increase near delivery. The strong propylene price since mid - August is mainly due to unexpected maintenance and relatively rigid downstream start - up [22] - In Q4, the supply in October is expected to be loose as some devices resume production. For November - December, propylene supply is likely to be tight due to factors such as the peak season of raw materials, potential device maintenance, and the impact of the first delivery on device operations [30][33] - There is basically no new propylene production capacity in Q4. The import volume is expected to decline as the import window closes and some overseas devices have parking plans [38] 3.3 Demand Side - Propylene supply and demand are unlikely to be significantly imbalanced in quantity. The key variable for propylene demand in Q4 is polypropylene, as its consumption accounts for over 60% and its supply growth rate is significantly high this year [40] - The high growth rate of polypropylene supply is mainly due to domestic demand. Although inventory has absorbed some supply, the remaining supply increment can be explained by the growth in major application fields, which shows signs of involution [41][45][47] - Propylene demand is expected to maintain a high growth rate in Q4. However, the high - demand growth under the involution situation is difficult to boost PP prices, which will indirectly suppress propylene prices [60][62] - There are some new production capacities for polypropylene and other downstream products in Q4, but the actual impact on propylene demand depends on the commissioning situation [65] 3.4 Discussion on the First Delivery of Propylene Futures - The economic efficiency of issuing warehouse receipts is not significantly different among different regions. The warehouse receipts for the first delivery are mainly expected to be generated by manufacturers at the warehouses. Theoretically, Donghua Zhangjiagang, Jinneng Chemical, Binhuaxin Material, and Shanghai Yuchi have high abilities to issue warehouse receipts [68][69] - Most manufacturers may have low willingness to issue warehouse receipts due to the low liquidity and open interest of propylene futures. Only Shanghai Yuchi may have a high willingness [73] - Although the delivery rules seem to favor short - positions, a long - position strategy should be adopted in the first delivery game [74] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - From a fundamental perspective, the propylene spot price may first fall and then rise with an overall oscillating trend. Considering the delivery factor, there is a bullish expectation for propylene futures [75] - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PL2601 contract after November. For the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to narrow the PP - PL spread after the propylene spot price bottoms out in October and the PP - PL spot spread recovers to around 500 - 600 yuan/ton [75][76]