| [Table_Title] 【广发批零社服&海外】百胜中国 | | --- | | （09987.HK/YUMC.N）系列深度二 | 穿越周期，向下一个万店进击 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：（货币单位为美元，汇率采用 1 港元=0.13 美元） | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10978 | 11303 | 11652 | 12301 | 13070 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 14.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1559 | 1638 | 1731 | 1861 | 1992 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 827 | 911 | 921 | 1007 | 1094 | | 增长率 （ ） % | 87.1% | 10.2% | 1.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | | EPS（元/股） | 2.00 | 2.3 ...

从此前相对审慎开店，到如今提速拓张，老铺黄金的渠道策略正从追求单店坪效到在核心城市的高端商业体做高密度布局转移。甚至在同一城市的相同商 场的不同楼层，老铺黄金会开设2家店，形成门店矩阵，比如北京东方天地、南京德基广场等。 而老铺黄金今年密集开设新店，是其战略布局、市场需求、资本运作等多重因素共同作用的结果。但同时，门店密度的增加，也意味着老铺黄金将接受新 的考验。 在此前，依靠单店扩散效应，老铺黄金曾达成单门店平均业绩超过3亿元的神话。而在新门店形成分流效应后，这一模式的持续性如何，依然有待观察。 同时，在过去很长一段时间，金价上涨、追求保值的消费情绪带来的红利，成为推动老铺黄金业绩、股价双双上涨的重要原因。如果在未来其他奢侈品牌 恢复元气，持续扩张之下的老铺黄金，其稀缺性和品牌成色才将迎来真正的考验。 文 | 源Sight王言 临近2026新年，老铺黄金明显加快了扩张速度。 12月25日，老铺黄金在香港海港城的第二家门店开业，这也是其在香港的第四家门店。而在两天前，其在深圳万象城的二层新店也正式营业。 来源：老铺黄金官方微信公众号 总体看，2025年老铺黄金全年共计新增14家门店，是2024年的两倍，远超其 ...

若说温情陪伴是椒爱的"软实力"，那么跨区域多店同步开业的硬实力，则为这份陪伴提供了坚实支撑。在餐饮市场竞争进入深水区的当下，一次性实现八城 12店齐开，考验的不仅是经济实力，更是品牌后端的系统化支撑能力，而椒爱交出了一份亮眼答卷。对于行业而言，椒爱的规模化实践也为连锁餐饮品牌的 扩张提供了可借鉴的范本 — 唯有后端体系足够扎实，前端扩张才能行稳致远。 清晰的战略布局彰显深耕决心。此次新开的12家门店均落子华北、东北核心城市，形成区域密集覆盖态势。椒爱相关负责人介绍，这一布局旨在进一步提升 北方市场渗透率，优化供应链响应效率，让品牌服务更快速、稳定地触达更多消费者。据了解，截至目前，椒爱已在北京、上海、天津等60余座城市拥有 180余家餐厅，此次规模化扩张正是品牌深耕北方市场的重要一步。 高效的拓店硬实力源于扎实内功。从"1"到"12"的数字突破，背后是椒爱在供应链、标准化、人才、运营四大维度的长期积淀。为保障品质稳定，品牌搭建 了覆盖北方主要城市的供应链网络，确保招牌椒盐水煮鱼的核心食材每日新鲜直达；通过标准化烹饪流程与品控体系，将菜品口味误差控制在最小范围；经 过多年打磨的人才梯队与运营模式，更大幅缩短了新 ...

上周财报披露到了尾声。Lululemon最新一季度财报虽然全球净营收同比增长7%至26亿美元，但净利润同比下降12.8%至3.07亿美元。好在中国内地市场 表现尤为强劲，净营收同比激增46%。或是被财务压力所致，Lululemon首席执行官卡尔文.麦克唐纳被董事会炒了，将于明年一月底卸任，新CEO人选未 定。 过去一周时尚品牌在资本市场也很活跃，拥有梦龙、和路雪等品牌的全球最大冰淇淋企业梦龙冰淇淋公司从联合利华独立出来IPO，上周一在阿姆斯特 丹、伦敦和纽约三地上市。内地护肤品牌丸美也准备在香港挂牌上市，欧莱雅加码投资医美巨头高德美，杰尼亚第二次投资加拿大跑步品牌norda。 重磅新店开张方面，北京迪奥之家的开业绝对是投入行业内的一颗重磅信号弹，标志着中国奢侈品市场回暖的信号确定加强，而韩国时尚零售平台 Musinsa全球海外旗舰店首店落户上海恒隆，则清晰展现韩国品牌对中国市场的热情也正升温，近期已有二三十家韩国品牌进入中国。 1.韩国时尚零售平台Musinsa计划五年在华开百店 韩国时尚零售平台MUSINSA全球首家海外旗舰店MUSINSA STANDARD于12月14日在上海恒隆商场正式开业。该店总面积约 ...

Investment Dynamics - Baolan Gold has completed over 100 million RMB in Series A financing, led by Challenger Capital, with participation from Kering Group and Shunwei Capital [3] - The funds will be used to deepen brand value, expand channel layout, upgrade supply chain resilience, and empower core talent, further consolidating its advantage in the high-end gold jewelry sector [3] Acquisition Dynamics - JD.com has acquired 85.2% of Ceconomy, a leading European consumer electronics retailer, for approximately 2.2 billion euros (about 181 billion RMB) [6] - This acquisition allows JD.com to access Ceconomy's established offline store network and local supply chain, aiming to transform stores into instant retail warehouses and reduce delivery times from 2-3 days to hours [6] - This deal marks the largest acquisition by a Chinese e-commerce company in Europe, enhancing JD.com's overseas business growth [6] - Canadian plant-based snack company Trubar has been acquired by Turkish food company ETİ Gıda for approximately 201 million CAD (about 10 billion RMB) [8] - The acquisition is expected to be completed by Q1 2026, with Trubar's shares delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange [8] - The deal may open a window for mergers among local startups in the Canadian plant snack market [8] Brand Dynamics - COS, a brand under H&M Group, will reopen its flagship store in Beijing's Sanlitun on December 24, with plans for additional stores in Dalian, Jinan, and Wuhan by early 2026 [9] - The flagship store's design integrates contemporary minimalist aesthetics with Beijing's cultural heritage, reflecting the brand's alignment with local culture [9] - COS aims to strengthen its presence in first-tier and new first-tier cities in China [9] - Let Tea has launched its "Guava Oil Kumquat Jasmine Tea" across all channels, expanding its no-sugar fruit tea category [16] - The new product features a health-focused formula with zero sugar and calories, combining guava and kumquat flavors for a unique taste [16] - This launch is expected to enhance Let Tea's position as a leader in the no-sugar fruit tea segment and drive industry upgrades [16] - French fashion brand Etam has announced its complete withdrawal from the Chinese market, closing its online stores on platforms like Tmall and Xiaohongshu [17] - This marks the end of Etam's operations in China after over 30 years in the market [17] Personnel Dynamics - Nike has announced significant executive changes, including the elimination of the Chief Commercial Officer position and the departure of the Chief Technology Officer [21] - A new Chief Operating Officer has been appointed, with expanded responsibilities including leadership of the technology department [21] - These changes are part of Nike's strategy to drive growth and performance [21] - Valentino has appointed Davide Tosi as Chief Merchandising Officer to lead global product planning and pricing strategies [24] - Tosi's experience with brands like Gucci and Prada is expected to help Valentino address revenue declines [24] - Former public relations head of Shui Jing Fang, Hong Zonghua, has joined PepsiCo as Vice President of Corporate Affairs for the Asia-Pacific region [27] - Hong's extensive background in public relations and government relations in foreign consumer companies is seen as a valuable asset for PepsiCo [27] - Fendi has appointed Francesca Leoni as the new Global Chief Communications Officer, succeeding Cristiana Monfardini [30] - Leoni brings over 25 years of experience in the luxury goods sector, aiming to enhance Fendi's brand strategy and public relations efforts [30]

Core Insights - Tasting, a rapidly expanding Chinese hamburger brand, is facing challenges with a high rate of store closures despite reaching over 10,000 locations [1][4][10] Group 1: Store Expansion and Closure Dynamics - Tasting opened 968 new stores and closed 907 in the past 90 days, resulting in approximately 10,296 operating stores [1] - Compared to established brands like Wallace and KFC, Tasting has a significantly higher closure rate, indicating potential instability in its expansion strategy [1][10] - The rapid expansion of Tasting, which reached 10,000 stores in just 13 years, was faster than Wallace and KFC, which took 18 and 36 years respectively [7][9] Group 2: Franchise and Market Challenges - The high closure rate may be attributed to over-saturation in certain areas, leading to poor performance and unsustainable operations for many franchisees [3][5] - Tasting's aggressive entry into first-tier cities has resulted in fierce competition with established brands, which may have better consumer acceptance and promotional strategies [5][10] - The average payback period for franchisees has extended to around two years, indicating a decline in profitability opportunities [12] Group 3: Strategic Implications and Future Outlook - Despite closures, Tasting continues to seek new franchisees, particularly in key regions like Beijing and Shanghai, suggesting ongoing expansion plans [10] - The brand's management may be strategically closing underperforming stores to optimize franchise quality and improve overall brand performance [14] - Tasting's future growth will depend on its ability to attract quality franchisees and effectively communicate its value proposition to potential investors [10][14]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc'teryx, reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, while also facing potential brand image challenges due to a controversial event [1][3]. Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a 30% year-on-year revenue increase to $1.756 billion in Q3 2025, with adjusted net profit rising 161% to $185 million, and earnings per share doubling to $0.33, exceeding expectations by $0.08 [1][3]. - The adjusted gross margin expanded by 240 basis points to 57.9% [1][15]. Business Segments Highlights Technical Apparel - Revenue grew 31% to $683 million, driven by strong performance from the Arc'teryx brand, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue up 46% [7][15]. - The women's product line saw a 40% increase, with plans to increase its share of global revenue from 25% in 2025 to 30% by 2030 [7][15]. - The company plans to open 20 new Arc'teryx stores in 2025, focusing on North America [8]. Outdoor Performance - Revenue increased 36% to $724 million, primarily driven by Salomon's footwear and apparel [10][15]. - DTC channel revenue surged 67%, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region [10][15]. - The adjusted operating margin improved by 420 basis points to 21.7% due to channel and product structure optimization [11][15]. Ball & Racquet - Revenue rose 16% to $350 million, with Wilson brand products driving growth [12][15]. - The company plans to open 35 new Tennis 360 stores in China by 2025, expanding its presence in the market [13]. Future Outlook - The company raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to 23%-24%, up from the initial 20%-21% guidance, projecting revenue between $6.37 billion and $6.42 billion [3][19]. - For 2026, the company anticipates revenue growth to reach the upper limit of its long-term growth range, with adjusted operating margins expected to expand by 30-70 basis points [20].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hu Shang A Yi (02589) has surged over 35%, currently trading at 116.5 HKD, with a trading volume of 234 million HKD, following the announcement of a ten-year H-share incentive plan aimed at retaining core talent through restricted stock [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Hu Shang A Yi's stock price increased by 28.63% as of the latest report [1] - The company plans to implement an incentive plan with a cap of 5% of its total share capital [1] Group 2: Expansion and Brand Strategy - The number of Hu Shang A Yi stores nationwide has reached 10,739, an increase of 1,303 stores from 9,436 at the end of June [1] - The sub-brand "Cha Pao Bu," launched in March last year, has signed over 1,000 stores in less than two years, targeting Gen Z and student demographics with products priced below 10 RMB [1] - A recent collaboration with singer Mao Bu Yi has led to the launch of a "6.9 RMB" co-branded product series, generating over 100 million views on social media [1]

Core Insights - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with many franchise stores closing down due to a combination of high operational costs and declining consumer spending [1][2][4] - The number of tea beverage stores has increased dramatically, but this expansion is not sustainable as many new stores are failing shortly after opening [2][4][11] - The industry is witnessing a shift from individual franchisees to more professional "super franchisees" who can manage multiple brands and adapt quickly to market changes [15][17] Industry Trends - The tea beverage market saw a 32.5% increase in store numbers from 78,324 at the end of 2022 to 103,783 by the end of 2023, despite a decline in consumer spending [2][4] - Price wars have erupted, with brands like Heytea and Nayuki reducing prices significantly, leading to a departure from the previous pricing norms [4][6] - The closure of stores is becoming a common trend, with many brands experiencing high turnover rates among their franchisees [11][12] Market Dynamics - The supply chain and brand loyalty are critical factors, with brands like Gu Ming showing high equipment resale value due to better management and profitability [6][11] - Overexpansion has led to a decline in brand reputation for some companies, such as Heytea, which has had to halt franchise openings and focus on store quality [6][8] - Regional market differences are evident, with certain areas like Jiangxi being difficult for new brands to penetrate due to strong local competition [12][14] Equipment Recovery and Services - The second-hand equipment recovery market is booming, with companies like the Octopus team expanding their operations significantly to accommodate the influx of closed store equipment [4][18] - The industry is evolving from simple equipment recovery to providing comprehensive services, including store planning and operational consulting [22] - The emergence of collaborative networks among equipment recovery companies is fostering a more supportive industry environment [22] Future Outlook - The tea beverage industry is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on sustainability and efficiency as it moves away from rapid expansion to a more stable operational model [20][22] - The trend of offering second-hand equipment on a rental or installment basis is likely to grow, reflecting a shift in how businesses manage costs [18][20] - The ongoing consolidation and "survival of the fittest" mentality may ultimately benefit the industry by promoting healthier competition and innovation [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - CPE Yuanfeng has announced a strategic partnership with Burger King to establish a joint venture named "Burger King China," with an initial investment of $350 million aimed at expanding restaurant locations and enhancing operational capabilities in China [1][3]. Group 1: Joint Venture Details - CPE Yuanfeng will hold approximately 83% of the equity in Burger King China, while Restaurant Brands International (RBI) will retain about 17% [1]. - The joint venture will operate under a 20-year master development agreement granting exclusive rights to develop the Burger King brand in China [1]. Group 2: Expansion Plans - The plan aims to increase the number of Burger King outlets in China from around 1,250 to over 4,000 by 2035, alongside achieving sustainable same-store sales growth [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance - RBI reported a third-quarter revenue of $2.449 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with a net profit of $315 million, up 25% [3]. - Burger King's sales reached $2.96 billion, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year growth [3]. Group 4: Management and Investment Background - Since acquiring Burger King China in February, RBI has invested over $100 million and appointed experienced executives to enhance local operations [3][4]. - CPE Yuanfeng, established in 2008, manages over 100 billion yuan in assets and has previously invested in notable companies in the consumer services sector [4].