本周多家券商策略看好开门红行情。主题与业绩双线作战，也被普遍提及。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 结论 | 逻辑 | | 关注板块 | | 兴证策略 张启尧 | 开门红可期,1月两个潜在变化 | 首先,支撑前期躁动的流动性因素,在1月仍 在后看,随着业绩预告进一步为最气线 | | | | 具备一定延续性并有望进一步深化。如险资 | | 索提供指引,后续市场的上涨结构也有 | | | "开门红"预期下,中长期资金入市值得期 | | 望进一步扩散,而对于前期基本面支撑 | | | 待。年末业绩考核期过后机构资金风险偏好 | | 偏弱的主题板块也需要阶段性警惕调整 | | | 抬升,开启新一年布局等。 | | 风险。 | | | 并且,前期人民币升值为流动性和风险偏好 | | 高景气的上游算力硬件(通信设备、元 | | | | 创造的偏暖环境,在1月仍有进一步演绎的空 件、半导体);新能源（光伏设备、电 | | | | 间，汇率市场与资本市场的春季躁动行情有 | | 池、风电设备）、军工（航海装备）、 | | | 望形成共振。 | | 汽车 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the industry, focusing on sectors such as silicon materials, coal chemicals, and chlor-alkali chemicals. It highlights the need for companies to enhance product quality and manage low-price competition. Attention is drawn to performance and price increases in potassium fertilizers, phosphorus fertilizers, active dyes, and pesticides as the mid-year reporting period approaches [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical industry is at 3572.47, with a weekly high of 3587.1 and a low of 2687.54. The basic chemical sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.82% [2][6]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were noted in products such as chick seedlings (30.68%), monocrystalline silicon wafers (16.28%), and vitamin B1 (12.82%). Conversely, liquid chlorine saw a substantial decrease of 48.51% [9][10][23][25]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included significant increases for companies like Upwind New Materials (72.88%) and Hongbai New Materials (24.72%). On the downside, companies like Ruile New Materials (-15.98%) and Guangkang Biochemical (-11.04%) experienced declines [7][8][21][22]. Key Companies and Ratings - Key companies in the report include: - Wanhua Chemical (Buy, closing price 54.1, market cap 169.83 billion) - Runfeng Co. (Not rated, closing price 56.0, market cap 15.71 billion) - Yara International (Not rated, closing price 30.1, market cap 27.83 billion) - Yangnong Chemical (Buy, closing price 58.1, market cap 23.56 billion) - Meihua Biological (Buy, closing price 11.1, market cap 31.52 billion) [12][13][14].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has adjusted the A-share market holiday schedule, with the market closed from May 1, 2025, to May 5, 2025, for a total of 5 days, resuming normal trading on May 6, 2025 [1] - There is a suggestion for increasing the daily trading hours of the A-share market and making holiday arrangements more scientific, indicating a need for reform in trading schedules [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains positive despite the index performance, with more stocks rising than falling daily, particularly in core sectors like electricity and finance (banking and cross-border payments) [3] - The banking sector is reaching new highs, and the electricity sector is experiencing significant gains, indicating a strong focus of funds on these performance lines as earnings reports are released [3] Group 3 - The current index is experiencing a back-and-forth movement around the 3300-point level, with a need for a pullback to accumulate more upward momentum for future growth [5] - The pullback is not seen as the end of the rebound but rather a necessary adjustment for stronger upward movement, with expectations for the index to fully recover above 3300 points after this adjustment [5] Group 4 - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.39% [7] - The index is expected to face adjustments next week, with support likely above 3200 points, and a collective rebound anticipated in the following weeks, presenting opportunities for low-positioning strategies [7]