每经编辑｜段炼 据央视军事援引多家美媒近日报道，以色列情报部门和军方于今年6月暗杀伊朗重要核专家的行动细节被披露。 报道称，以色列情报分析人员列出了伊朗100名最重要的核科学家名单，随后将目标缩减至大约12人，利用数十年的间谍活动获取了他们的工作、行踪等 个人信息，并在6月实施一系列空袭暗杀行动。以色列称，在6月13日及随后几天内，他们共暗杀了约10名伊朗高级核科学家。 图片来源：央视军事 分析认为，以色列的计划是对整个伊朗核项目进行战略性打击，而不只是清除个别科学家。但暗杀行动也导致了平民丧生，报道显示，5次针对伊朗核科 学家的袭击已造成71名平民伤亡，其中包括许多儿童。 据央视新闻，当地时间18日，据伊朗媒体报道，美国总统特朗普及以色列总理内塔尼亚胡被曝自今年2月开始就已密谋袭击伊朗。内塔尼亚胡曾给特朗普 四个不同合作程度的美以合作计划，并策划了美国反对以色列袭击伊朗计划的舆论。 6月13日，以色列对伊朗核设施发动突袭。此后，以色列与伊朗发动多轮互袭。美国当地时间6月21日晚宣布成功打击伊朗三处核设施。6月24日，伊朗与 以色列停火协议正式生效。 不过，近期以色列的行为似乎激怒了特朗普。 美国总统特朗普当 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iran has issued an evacuation warning to Israeli citizens, specifically in the central city of Ramat Gan, indicating an imminent missile attack on Israeli military facilities in the area [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Military Actions - Iran has threatened to launch an attack on Israeli military facilities within hours, prompting evacuation orders for residents in Ramat Gan [1] - Previous missile strikes by Iran on Ramat Gan and surrounding areas have occurred, with a notable attack on June 14 resulting in multiple injuries and damage to several buildings [1]

Group 1 - Israeli military conducted airstrikes on multiple military command centers in Tehran, Iran, dropping over 100 munitions within two hours [1] - The airstrikes targeted facilities associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the General Intelligence Bureau of Iran's internal security forces [1] - Iran has not yet responded to the airstrikes [1] Group 2 - Israeli military aimed to disrupt access to Iran's Fordow nuclear facility through airstrikes [3] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the use of the "Qadr-H" multi-warhead ballistic missile for the first time in response to Israeli attacks, targeting multiple locations from north to south [4] - The "Qadr-H" missile has a range of 1,650 to 2,000 kilometers and is capable of carrying multiple warheads while evading radar detection [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Embassy in Qatar advised American citizens to shelter in place due to heightened regional tensions [2] - The embassy previously restricted access to the Al Udeid Air Base, indicating increased security measures [2]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact global oil prices, with predictions suggesting prices may exceed $100 per barrel, potentially reaching $120-$130 under severe geopolitical conditions [1][5]. Group 1: Iran's Position and Threats - A senior Iranian lawmaker stated that Iran could retaliate against enemies by closing the Strait of Hormuz, although another lawmaker indicated this would only occur if Iran's core interests were threatened [1][2]. - The Iranian parliament's National Security Committee member mentioned that Iran has various ways to respond to threats, with the closure of the Strait being a significant option [1]. - The closure of the Strait is seen as a legitimate response if the U.S. formally supports Israel in military actions against Iran [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Approximately 25% of the world's daily oil consumption, around 18 million barrels, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical shipping route for oil and gas [2]. - Clarkson's data indicates that 11% of global maritime trade transits through the Strait, including 34% of seaborne crude oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [3]. - The economic risks associated with closing the Strait are high for Iran, as its economy heavily relies on oil exports, and such a move could isolate Iran from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait is closed, oil prices could surge to the $120-$130 range, with Brent crude futures already rising above $78 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions [5]. - Analysts generally view the complete closure of the Strait as a low-probability event, with a more likely scenario being a reduction in Iranian oil exports rather than a total blockade [3].

Group 1 - The article reports that Israeli forces are attacking the underground headquarters of Iranian leader Khamenei in Tehran [1]

Group 1: U.S. and Israel's Military Stance - U.S. President Trump has indicated a shift in stance, suggesting that Iran's Supreme Leader is an "easy target" and demanding "unconditional surrender" from Iran [1][2] - Trump is reportedly considering the use of U.S. military force to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, reflecting dissatisfaction with diplomatic solutions [2][3] - Israel is awaiting U.S. support to potentially carry out strikes on Iran's nuclear program, indicating a reliance on U.S. military assets for success [6] Group 2: Iran's Response - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has declared that "the battle has begun," emphasizing a strong response against what he terms "terrorist Zionist regime" [3] - Khamenei has maintained a firm grip on Iran's governance and military, promoting a network of allied armed groups across the region [3] Group 3: International Reactions - French President Macron has expressed serious disagreements with Trump regarding military actions that could lead to regime change in Iran, advocating for diplomatic solutions instead [5] - Macron highlighted the risks of military interventions, referencing past conflicts in Iraq and Libya as examples of failed strategies [5] - German Chancellor Merz noted that Israel is executing "dirty work" for Western allies and emphasized the necessity of U.S. support for Israel's military objectives against Iran [6]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has declared a strong stance against Zionism, stating that there will be no compromise with Zionist entities, specifically Israel [1] Group 1 - Khamenei's statement emphasizes the necessity of a robust response to Zionism, indicating a hardline approach towards Israel [1] - Reports from U.S. officials suggest that Iran is prepared with missiles and military equipment to target U.S. military bases in the Middle East if the U.S. engages in war against Iran [1]

Group 1 - Iran's military claims to have successfully destroyed multiple Israeli military facilities and strategic positions in Tel Aviv and Haifa using over a hundred precision-strike capable drones [1] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced an attack on the headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad located in Tel Aviv [2] - The attack also targeted the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, which is one of the three main intelligence agencies in Israel [2] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated the attack on Mossad's operational planning center in Tel Aviv resulted in significant damage, with the center currently on fire [4] - Iran's permanent representative to the United Nations reported that Israeli attacks have resulted in nearly 1,500 casualties, including at least 224 civilian deaths [6] - The representative emphasized that Iran's response is defensive, targeted, and proportional, warning that any country supporting Israeli aggression will bear legal responsibility [6]

Core Points - The Israeli military announced the killing of Iranian military commander Ali Shadmani on the 17th [1] - The operation was based on precise intelligence and took place in a command center in downtown Tehran [2] - Shadmani was a key figure in the Iranian armed forces, having served as the wartime chief of staff and commander of the emergency command center [3] - The Israeli military stated that Shadmani's death weakened the command chain of the Iranian armed forces [4]

Core Points - The Israeli military spokesperson announced the destruction of one-third of Iran's missile launchers [1] Group 1 - The Israeli military claims significant progress in neutralizing Iranian missile capabilities [1]