Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a sideways adjustment around the 3850-point level, with increased volatility due to the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. There is a divergence in opinions among brokerage firms regarding whether the market has reached a temporary bottom and the direction of the market post-National Day holiday [2] Group 1: Calendar Effect - The "calendar effect" refers to abnormal return differences associated with specific dates in financial markets, with seasonal and holiday effects being significant manifestations. For the National Day holiday, it is noted that low-valued and early-cycle sectors tend to perform better in the fourth quarter, provided that macroeconomic expectations remain stable [2] - Historical data from 2010 onwards indicates that the A-share market typically experiences a downturn in the ten days leading up to the National Day holiday, followed by a significant rebound in the five days after the holiday, with an average increase and higher win rates for small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks [3] - Analysis from Tianfeng Securities shows that the median return for the market in the five trading days before the holiday is -0.81%, while the first five days after the holiday see a median return of 2.27% with an 80% win rate [4] Group 2: Macro Perspective - Brokerages are analyzing the A-share market's performance post-National Day from a macro perspective, focusing on global policy interactions, domestic economic data, and medium to long-term strategic layouts. Key concerns include overseas variables and domestic policy windows [5] - Huatai Securities highlights that overseas policy and economic variables, such as new tariffs announced by the Trump administration and upcoming U.S. economic data releases, may influence investor sentiment and risk appetite [5] - The market is expected to see a marginal recovery in trading willingness post-holiday, with potential policy and performance layout opportunities arising from significant upcoming political meetings and corporate earnings reports [5] Group 3: Investment Direction - Resource stocks are shifting from a cyclical to a dividend-oriented valuation approach due to supply constraints and global geopolitical uncertainties, while leading Chinese manufacturing firms are expected to leverage their market share for pricing power and profit margin improvements [6] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets may benefit from long-term policy layouts and a relatively loose liquidity environment in October, with opportunities concentrated in the technology growth sector for A-shares and unique market structures for Hong Kong stocks [6] - The market is anticipated to enter a consolidation phase, waiting for the next policy trigger, as the A-share market has already accumulated significant gains since the June 23 rally [7]

转自：新华财经 过去15年以来，每年市值前30的周期制造类公司（以有色、机械、化工、汽车为例），其营收中海外营 收占比（取平均值）从2010年的约5%，一直提高到了2025年的约32%。如果以当前境外营收占比超过 20%的公司作为样本，这部分公司对全A非金融的利润贡献在2015年只有22%，在2020年为24%，但截 至2025年中报已经超过了40%。相应地，这部分公司占全A非金融市值比重在2015年只有28%，在2020 年为32%，截至2025年9月19日则达到37%。上述趋势是每一个新兴股票市场逐步成长为成熟市场的必 经之路，即全球敞口的跨国公司成为市场中大市值公司的主体。因此，在这个趋势下，用"行情与基本 面背离且全靠流动性驱动"来理解A股是有偏的，未来固有偏见会逐步被打破。事实上，纯内需导向的 品种今年涨幅非常有限，而出海导向的品种市值和利润占比已经远超不少投资者的固有认知。 新华财经上海9月22日电 中信证券研报分析认为，目前整体的行业选择框架依然是围绕资源+新质生产 力+出海。资源股在供给受限以及全球地缘动荡的预期推动下，从周期属性转向偏红利属性会带来估值 体系重构，博弈美联储降息的资金退潮带来 ...

Group 1 - The brokerage strategies remain positive, addressing market concerns such as high-low switching, market style in Q4, and the pace of retail investor entry [1] - The strategy team from Xingzheng emphasizes that the current market rotation is driven by incremental funds and economic advantages, focusing on identifying opportunities based on economic logic and industry trends rather than simple position switching [1][7] - The Citic strategy team highlights the importance of the globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing firms, which is expected to enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1][7] Group 2 - The strategy team from招商策略 notes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September historically correlates with a higher probability of A/H shares rising in the future [4] - Historical data indicates that the market tends to be relatively flat before the National Day holiday, but risk appetite improves significantly afterward, with over 60% probability of gains in major indices during the week following the holiday [4][8] - The strategy team from广发分析 suggests that the current rise in retail investor sentiment is still in its early stages, with various indicators showing that the market is not yet experiencing significant capital outflow from savings [1][9] Group 3 - The strategy from信达 suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, with the current environment favoring strong industry trends while maintaining flexibility in high-low switching strategies [8] - The analysis indicates that the market is currently in a bull phase, with expectations of increased retail investment in the coming year, supported by a favorable policy environment [8] - The strategy team from国全策略 believes that the true bull market has not yet begun, but signs of recovery in corporate earnings and the potential for a new market cycle are emerging [9]