3、ETF交易便利、费用低廉、产品丰富、决策成本低，已经成为居民入市的主要工具。全市场ETF规 模已突破5.3万亿元，相比"924行情"启动时点，增长超2.4万亿元，增幅高达85.36%。 资金坚定抢筹的背后，得益于行业基本面迎来诸多积极变化： 1、7、8月居民存款连续两个月同比少增，非银存款连续两月同比多增，或与存款搬家进入股市有关。 叠加8月A股新开户数持续高增，A股日均成交额达到2.25万亿元，超过2024年9月及2015年6月，或能印 证居民存款入市趋势。 2、从证券业绩来看，上半年净利同比增逾40%，随着下半年市场成交额持续攀升，经纪业务有望持续 增长。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 格隆汇9月24日｜昨日A股尾盘上演绝地反击，今日继续表现活跃，半日成交额1.4万亿，两市成交额连 续第85个交易日突破1万亿元。 作为"9·24"反弹先锋的证券板块，近期表现持续低迷，证券ETF（159841）自高点回撤逾9%，而资金坚 定博弈底部反弹机遇，"越跌越买"态势不减，已连续22个交易日净流入，净流入额高达35.16亿元，今 日盘中再现大额申购。 证券ETF(159 ...

Group 1 - The brokerage strategies remain positive, addressing market concerns such as high-low switching, market style in Q4, and the pace of retail investor entry [1] - The strategy team from Xingzheng emphasizes that the current market rotation is driven by incremental funds and economic advantages, focusing on identifying opportunities based on economic logic and industry trends rather than simple position switching [1][7] - The Citic strategy team highlights the importance of the globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing firms, which is expected to enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1][7] Group 2 - The strategy team from招商策略 notes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September historically correlates with a higher probability of A/H shares rising in the future [4] - Historical data indicates that the market tends to be relatively flat before the National Day holiday, but risk appetite improves significantly afterward, with over 60% probability of gains in major indices during the week following the holiday [4][8] - The strategy team from广发分析 suggests that the current rise in retail investor sentiment is still in its early stages, with various indicators showing that the market is not yet experiencing significant capital outflow from savings [1][9] Group 3 - The strategy from信达 suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, with the current environment favoring strong industry trends while maintaining flexibility in high-low switching strategies [8] - The analysis indicates that the market is currently in a bull phase, with expectations of increased retail investment in the coming year, supported by a favorable policy environment [8] - The strategy team from国全策略 believes that the true bull market has not yet begun, but signs of recovery in corporate earnings and the potential for a new market cycle are emerging [9]

截至2025年9月16日14:20，证券ETF(159841)上涨0.52%，盘中换手5.25%，成交4.39亿元。跟踪指数成分股首创证券(601136)上涨8.25%，太平洋(601099)上 涨4.27%，长城证券(002939)上涨3.10%，国海证券(000750)上涨2.10%，国联民生(601456)上涨2.07%。 值得一提的是，证券ETF(159841)盘中获资金大举加仓，截至14:40，该基金净申购份额已超1.5亿份。 | | 证券ETF 159841 | ਕੇ | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 通融公口中 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 赎回 | | 笔数 | 264 | 12 | | 金额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 1.64亿 | 1080万 | 【特别提示】 值得注意的是，据9月5日基金公告，创业板ETF天弘(159977)将实施基金份额拆分，份额拆分份额登记日为9月12日、除权日为9月15日，本基金本次基金份 额拆分比例为1:2，即每1份基金份额拆为2份。 基金份额拆分一定程度上回应了投资者"净值恐高"心理。通过将单位净值从较高水平降至较低水平， ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current driving force behind the stock market rally is primarily institutional funds, including increased equity asset allocation by insurance funds, the entry of quasi-stabilization funds, and higher positions taken by private equity funds [1][4][21]. Key Points and Arguments - **Shift of Resident Deposits**: There is a gradual trend of resident deposits moving into the stock market, although this phenomenon was not significant as of mid-2025. In July, the growth rate of non-bank deposits increased significantly, while the growth rate of resident deposits slightly declined, indicating a marginal shift [1][5][12]. - **Regulatory Policies**: Regulatory measures have facilitated the entry of insurance funds into the market by lowering the risk weight of equity assets and optimizing investment methods. This has led to a notable increase in stock investments by property and life insurance companies, with year-on-year growth of approximately 33% and 45% respectively in Q1 2025 [7][8]. - **Private Equity Fund Growth**: Private equity funds have shown a recovery in scale, with significant growth observed in July 2025, primarily driven by resident deposits entering the market through private placements. The positions of large private equity funds have increased significantly, with a strong correlation to the performance of small-cap stocks [9][10]. - **Public Fund Performance**: The growth in public funds in the equity market is mainly attributed to passive index ETFs, which have contributed significantly to the increase in A-shares. Compared to the U.S. ETF market, China's ETF market still has considerable room for growth [11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Excess Savings Potential**: The current excess savings amount to approximately 4.3 trillion, indicating a substantial potential for resident deposits to enter the market. However, the marginal decline in deposits is primarily due to early mortgage repayments rather than stock market investments [6]. - **Historical Context of Deposit Shifts**: Historically, the shift of resident deposits into the stock market typically occurs after a clear profit effect is observed in the stock market, often following monetary easing and favorable policy environments [3][18]. - **Future Monitoring Indicators**: To assess the trend of resident deposit shifts, two indicators are suggested: the annual savings rate and the difference between household deposit growth and M2 growth. A decreasing difference indicates a potential shift in behavior [13]. Future Considerations - **Economic Environment**: The current macroeconomic environment aligns with historical conditions for deposit shifts, including declining deposit rates and a favorable policy environment. The stock market has shown a strong profit effect, which may encourage further deposit movement into equities [20][21]. - **Manufacturing Sector's Role**: The ability of the manufacturing sector to replace real estate as a new economic engine is crucial for sustaining credit expansion and supporting the upward trend of A-shares [22][23]. - **Monitoring Factors for Market Trends**: Future assessments of the stock market should focus on the speed of resident deposit shifts and the potential for credit expansion in the manufacturing sector, as these factors will significantly influence market trends [24].

Investment Highlights - The report identifies four phases of the A-share bull market: initiation (broad-based rally, policy support, and undervaluation), consolidation (differentiation, value blue chips), main rise (uptrend, technology growth + strategic themes), and peak (breakthrough, speculative bubbles + consumption) [4] - With macroeconomic conditions improving in July, including a rebound in M1, narrowing M2-M1 spread, and PPI bottoming out, there has been a significant influx of resident deposits into the market, supporting the main rise of A-shares [4][10] Phase Analysis 1. Preventive Savings and Bond Market Dominance - From August 2022 to August 2024, the bond market has been favored while A-shares experienced a downward trend due to economic weakness and low PPI and M1 [5][13] - The report notes a shift in resident behavior towards preventive savings, with a significant increase in prepayment of loans and a decline in market liquidity [25][27] 2. Normalization of Savings and Balance Between Stocks and Bonds - From September 2024 to June 2025, the report anticipates trading opportunities in bonds while A-shares will experience volatility as the economy stabilizes [40][41] - The normalization of savings is driven by low interest rates and an asset shortage, leading to a gradual recovery in risk appetite among residents [60][61] 3. Resident Deposits Entering the Market and A-share Main Rise - Since July 2025, the report highlights a shift towards equities while bonds adjust, with a notable increase in resident deposits entering the A-share market [73][74] - The correlation between M1 growth and A-share performance is emphasized, indicating that as M1 increases, so does the A-share index [75][77] Policy Environment - The report outlines a combination of monetary easing, fiscal support, and real estate policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting market confidence [24][47] - Key policy measures include multiple rounds of interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing loan policies to stimulate the real estate market [23][51] Asset Performance - The bond market has shown a configuration advantage, with a shift towards bond-like assets such as REITs and high-dividend bank stocks as investors seek defensive positions [32][64] - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently favoring a "barbell strategy," with strong performance in both high-dividend sectors and growth-oriented stocks [71][72]

Group 1 - The potential scale of resident deposits entering the market is estimated to be around 5 to 7 trillion yuan, driven by the current market activity and sustained profit effects [1] - The growth rate of non-bank deposits still has room for upward movement compared to historical peaks, indicating a continuation of the trend of residents moving their deposits [1] - The actual market entry situation will depend on various factors including macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external environments [1] Group 2 - A rapid increase in short-term trading volume may lead to heightened short-term volatility, but it generally does not affect the medium-term trend [1] - Historically, sectors that have performed relatively well during deposit migration phases include those with high prosperity and verified performance, such as AI/computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]

Core Insights - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB deposits reached 320.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1] - In July alone, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, which is a reduction of 780 billion yuan compared to the same month last year [1] - Non-bank financial institutions saw a monthly increase in deposits of 2.14 trillion yuan, marking a nearly ten-year high and surpassing the level of 1.81 trillion yuan recorded in the same period of 2015 [1]

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks saw significant gains, with Zhongzhou Securities rising by 11.91% to HKD 3.1, Guolian Minsheng up by 7.4% to HKD 7.11, CITIC Construction Investment increasing by 6.59% to HKD 14.56, and China International Capital Corporation rising by 5.67% to HKD 22.38 [1] - In July, non-bank financial institutions' deposits increased by CNY 2.14 trillion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 1.39 trillion, indicating a structural change in fund flows as residents shift funds to financial markets [1] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending surpassed CNY 2 trillion, reaching a ten-year high, reflecting high market trading sentiment [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that as market risk appetite rises, the net asset return rate of the brokerage sector is entering an upward phase, suggesting stronger stability and sustainability in brokerage performance [1] - The current cycle of market, expectations, and performance is expected to support a continuous recovery trend in the brokerage sector [1]