来自深圳市新兰德证券投资咨询有限公司【马爱华】【执业编号：A0780623080001】 今天大盘强势收出四连阳，纵观4月7日以来A股总共出现过5次四连阳，后面基本上都是以涨为主，那 么这次四连阳之后还能继续走强吗？对于手中有票的朋友是否该逢高减仓？对于卖飞踏空的朋友何时才 是进场时机？在解决这些问题之前，还是先看一组多空持仓数据，今天空头明显有所收敛，说明这根带 量阳线还是有震慑力的，而且跟12月1日和12月8日收盘站上60日线不同的是，这次多头的减仓幅度明显 减少，此消彼长之间预示着这次站上60日线的强度要高于之前，短期如有调整依然可以视为倒车接人的 机会。 说到情绪今天是明显弱于指数的，即便是指数涨了26个点，两市还是有2100多家下跌，以及7家跌停 板，之所以如此还是因为平潭周五尾盘的调整所致，不过今天平潭已经看到承接，后面应该还会出现抱 团，只看是老的抱团还是新出一批抱团，而后情绪面也会跟随修复，当然今天还需要提一嘴的是易王， 从46到466已经完成了十倍涨幅，之前多只个股在十倍之后都会逐步走弱，所以接下来什么时候看到易 王出现大阴线，则要注意趋势大票这边的风险释放。 板块方面主要是两方面：一个是具 ...

2025年A股"高低切"趋势最近在演绎，前期高景气成长赛道（如AI、国产算力）拥挤度攀升、机构持仓接近历史极值，资金再平衡需求推动低估值顺周期资 产成为配置核心。其中，证券与保险行业凭借"业绩增长确定性强+估值安全边际充足+资金持续流入"的三重核心优势，成为兼顾稳健性与收益性的优选配 置方向。下文将从市场逻辑、行业价值、配置工具及实操策略四方面展开分析，为投资者提供清晰、严谨的决策参考。 一、当前资金有高切低的信号 用一段话说完：行业收益分化触发极值信号+AI持仓到达高位水平+非银板块处于低估且待涨的状态。 （一）高景气赛道拥挤度已达风险阈值 当前主动偏股基金对AI板块的持仓占比超40%，接近 2017-2021 年 "茅指数" 行情的历史极值（44.8%）；同时，行业间收益分化、成长风格与价值风格的分 化程度，均攀升至过去3年90%以上分位（经MA5平滑处理）。高位板块增量资金承接能力边际减弱，回调风险逐步累积，资金亟需寻找"低拥挤、高安全 垫"的替代方向。 图：AI 与泛新能源、茅指数三轮机构持仓对比 图：今年以来涨幅较小，估值分位数仍在历史40%分位数以下的行业集中在顺周期资产方向 在资金"弃高就低"的 ...

【导读】私募高仓位迎年末行情，策略偏向均衡与"高低切" A股已进入今年最后一个月的收官交易期，近期A股市场的震荡调整并未引发私募担忧，不少私募仍保 持高仓位水平。私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年11月21日，股票私募仓位达82.97%，较前一周上升 1.84个百分点，再次刷新年内新高，同时创下近185周新高。 从操作策略看，均衡布局与"高低切"成为私募调仓的关键词。展望2026年，受访私募普遍将企业盈利的 边际改善视为市场核心驱动力，认为A股"慢牛"基础仍在，市场风格有望转向价值与成长更为均衡的格 局。 私募保持高仓位运行 私募排排网最新数据显示，截至2025年11月21日，股票私募仓位达82.97%，较前一周上升1.84个百分 点，不仅刷新年内高点，更是创下近185周的新高。 仓位分布进一步显现了私募的进攻姿态。满仓私募占比已攀升至68.99%；而中等仓位、低仓及空仓私 募比例均有明显下降，分别为18.56%、8.56%和3.89%。这一结构变化显示，更多股票私募机构正倾向 于继续加仓，进一步强化了对后市看好的共识。 相聚资本的投资组合构建体现了"攻守兼备"的思路。其当前持仓大致分为两类：一类是处于周期与 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that private equity funds are maintaining high positions as they approach the end of the year, with a focus on balanced strategies and "high-low cuts" in their portfolio adjustments [2][6] - As of November 21, 2025, the stock private equity position reached 82.97%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points from the previous week, marking a new high for the year and the highest level in nearly 185 weeks [4] - The distribution of positions indicates an aggressive stance among private equity funds, with the proportion of fully invested funds rising to 68.99%, while medium, low, and empty positions have significantly decreased [4] Group 2 - Private equity firms are adopting a balanced approach in their year-end strategies, focusing on high-growth industries and sectors with improved supply-demand relationships, emphasizing fundamental research and valuation matching [7] - The investment strategy of companies like Xiangshi Investment and Chongyang Investment reflects a shift towards "high-low cuts," seeking stocks with dividends and long-term growth potential while avoiding speculative stocks detached from fundamentals [8] - Companies are optimistic about the A-share market for 2026, with expectations of economic recovery and gradual improvement in corporate earnings, which are seen as core drivers for market performance [10] Group 3 - Specific sectors expected to perform well include AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and military industries, as well as traditional industries with improved supply-demand dynamics [10] - The article highlights that the copper market is anticipated to have a strong performance in the first half of the year, while the chemical industry is expected to present investment opportunities in the second half [11] - Concerns regarding market risks include changes in global liquidity expectations, potential bubbles in high-valuation sectors, and inflation issues abroad, with oil price fluctuations and U.S. monetary policy being key factors to monitor [11]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：华泰证券研究所） 策略: 港股正在进入布局区(2025-11-23) ▽ 点击一键直达 ▽ 近期市场波动率上升,流动性、情绪和风险偏好是 主要原因。港股本轮调整相对A股更早、跌幅也更 深,当前位置已经开始具备性价比。1)短期资金避 险和高低切可能延续,建议关注今年以来表现排名 靠后的消费者服务、建筑、纺织服装、家电。2)8月以 来的第三轮重估中,部分行业涨幅有限但近期跌幅 反而较大,有更大被"错杀"概率,关注电子、医药、 汽车、轻工制造等。3)港股科技近期回调较多,在风 险偏好回落下对正面催化敏感度下降,流动性环境 改善后仍有重估机会。 策略: 高低切下哪些行业还有补涨空间? (2025-11-16) ▽ 点击一键直达 ▽ 上周行业间高低切演绎较为极致,今年以来相对滞 涨的板块上周涨跌幅排名靠前。在盈利数据并未明 显改善的情况下资金提前切换,或因当前流动性承 压、主线不清晰等交易性因素。若资金高低切持续, 短期建议关注今年以来表现排名靠后的消费者服 务、建筑、纺织服装、家电以及具有防御属性的红利 方向。此外,12月开始港股流动性压力边际暂缓,切 换或难一帆风顺,依然建议均衡配置。 策略 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 量化周报 风格后续关注高低切 风格后续关注高低切。本周（ 11.24-11.28）大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周 收涨 1.40%。在此背景下，大部分大指数与板块迎来了一波 30 分钟级别 反弹。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹已经持续了 7 个多 月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的上涨基本都轮动了一 遍，超 2/3 的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎所有的规模指数及一 半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-17 浪的上涨结构，科创 50 更是在所有 宽基里面率先形成了日线级别下跌，食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车、 电子、通信、计算机、军工、非银、机械也相继形成了日线级别下跌，中 证 500、中证 1000、创业板指、沪深 300、传媒、建筑、建材、房地产也 有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率 已经结束。未来市场大概率会是震荡调整的态势，当下的反弹大概率只是 一波 30 分钟级别反弹，风格后续大概率会进行高低切。中期来看，上证 指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing significant fear, as indicated by the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 7, suggesting a potential left-side trading opportunity if the trend does not reverse [2] - Institutions are likely to take a cautious approach in November, preferring to secure profits rather than take risks, leading to a high-low rotation strategy [2] - Global assets experienced a sharp decline due to tightening overseas liquidity, increasing divergence in AI, and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - There is a strong willingness from policymakers to support the market, as evidenced by the recent issuance of multiple technology-related ETFs over the weekend [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently characterized by stock selection and a focus on existing stocks, with a notable adjustment in technology stocks due to concerns over overseas liquidity and AI bubble fears [2] - The market environment is favorable for small-cap and thematic investments, as the current period is marked by a vacuum in earnings guidance and weakened fundamentals [2] - The launch of the "A series" ETFs by Huabao Fund provides investors with diverse options to invest in major Chinese indices, including the A50, A100, and A500 [2][3] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The performance of the major indices showed declines, with the ChiNext Index down by 1.16%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.81%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.92% [1] - The net inflow of funds into the top three industries was led by the media sector, which saw an inflow of 2.533 billion yuan [2]

Macroeconomic Overview - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from September, while the market expectation was 5.5% [4] - The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to October was 6.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from January to September [4] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, marking the lowest level since June 2020, and significantly below the market expectation of -0.7% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods in October nominally grew by 2.9%, continuing a decline for five consecutive months, and was below the market expectation of 2.7% [5] Industry Insights - Huawei is set to release a breakthrough technology in the AI field on November 21, which could increase the utilization rate of GPU and NPU resources from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70%, significantly enhancing hardware potential [9] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will reach 1.55 million tons in 2025, with supply capacity at over 1.7 million tons, indicating a potential surplus [10] - The sales of new energy heavy trucks in October reached 20,290 units, a year-on-year increase of 144%, indicating strong market demand [12] - The pet health products industry is expected to see a surge in demand due to the aging pet population, with a shift from preventive to essential health care products [14] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index volatility increased by 3.9% last week, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid concerns over AI tech stocks and potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [16] - The domestic market is experiencing a "high-low cut" sentiment, with consumer indices rising while high P/E indices are declining, indicating a shift in investor focus [16] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced minor fluctuations last week, with short-term yields rising slightly due to unstable funding conditions, while the overall economic data released was weak but within market expectations [18]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis or construction[1][2][3][4] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, fund flows, and industry performance without detailing quantitative models or factors[5][6][7] - No formulas, construction processes, or evaluations of quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[8][9][10]