1月10日，中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长、中欧国际工商学院教授、中国人民银行调查统计司原司 长盛松成在2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会上表示，中国货币政策"小步走"的可能性较大。 货币政策一般针对中短期目标。盛松成表示，在面临较多不确定性时，货币政策更需要"摸着石头过 河"，并且货币政策从实施到影响经济存在一定时滞。 与财政政策可以直接介入经济活动不同，货币政策一般是间接发挥作用的，需要私人部门、商业银行及 整个金融体系的配合，其实施效果在相当程度上受市场反馈的影响。 货币政策传导机制也比财政政策复杂，传导途径一般较长。如中国近年来逐步形成"政策利率（OMO利 率）→贷款市场报价利率（LPR）→实际贷款利率"的货币政策传导机制，中央银行难以精准控制每一 个环节。 盛松成还表示，中国货币政策工具箱日趋丰富。央行正在不断增强政策利率的作用，通过各类流动性支 持工具、二级市场国债买卖等方式投放流动性和调节资金成本，能有效平抑市场短期波动。 降准优于降息 盛松成分析称，中国以降准为主，而不大幅降息，原因之一可能是商业银行的息差压力。截至2025年三 季度末，商业银行净息差为1.42%，处于历史低位。目前中国金融机构 ...

Group 1 - China's actual GDP growth rate reached 5.2% in the first half of the year, slightly exceeding targets, but nominal GDP remains relatively weak due to ongoing deflation in CPI and PPI [2] - Fiscal policy has been front-loaded with measures such as local debt replacement, subsidies for trade-ins, and increased social security spending, resulting in faster expenditure growth from January to May compared to previous years, potentially overextending growth for the remainder of the year [2] - The upcoming high-level meeting in July is expected to adopt a more moderate and observational tone, with no significant fiscal stimulus likely until after the trade pause between China and the U.S. ends in August [2] Group 2 - Additional policy measures are anticipated in the fall, likely waiting for clearer data in the third quarter, with expectations set for late September or October [2] - Despite the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this year, significant cuts are expected in the future, potentially totaling 175 basis points over the next two years [2] - The U.S. dollar is projected to depreciate by another 10%, following a previous 10% decline, leading to a cumulative depreciation of 20% [2] Group 3 - China's promotion of stablecoins is not aimed at making them investment tools or exchange instruments, but rather focuses on cross-border trade settlement [2] - It is suggested to combine export controls on strategic resources like rare earths with stablecoin pilot programs, involving state-owned enterprises and banks to issue stablecoins specifically for rare earth trade, thereby strengthening financial autonomy [3] - A humanoid robot contains an average of 1 kg of rare earths, 2 kg of lithium, 3 kg of graphite, and 6.5 kg of copper, with China currently holding 88% of global rare earth supply, 93% of graphite, and 75% of lithium refining market [3] Group 4 - By 2050, the demand for strategic mineral resources in the global robotics industry is estimated to reach $800 billion [4]