Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal prices and production volumes, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 38.5% in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.18 per share and initiate a share buyback program to return value to shareholders [3] - Future performance is expected to improve as coal prices stabilize and production capacity gradually increases, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 59.35 billion, down 17.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.65 billion, down 38.5% year-on-year [1] - The coal business saw a production and sales volume of 73.6 million and 64.81 million tons respectively, with a decrease in sales price for various coal types [2] - The company’s coal chemical segment showed a positive trend with a gross profit contribution of RMB 3.1 billion, up 29.2% year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of RMB 8.94 billion, RMB 9.65 billion, and RMB 10.69 billion respectively, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.89, RMB 0.96, and RMB 1.07 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.5, 13.5, and 12.2 [4][5]

Overall Analysis - In Q2 2025, the overall A-share market experienced a decline in profitability, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.41% for net profit attributable to shareholders, down from 2.57% in H1 2025 [11][12] - The revenue growth for the entire A-share market in H1 2025 was 0.21%, with Q2 showing a slight improvement to 0.49% [12][19] - The return on equity (ROE) for the non-financial and non-oil sectors stabilized at 6.26% in Q2 2025, indicating a need for further observation regarding upward elasticity [28][31] Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest year-on-year net profit growth in Q2 2025 included comprehensive services (+239.7%), steel (+82.2%), electronics (+27.6%), and electric equipment (+24.6%) [3][24] - The real estate, electric equipment, and defense industries showed improvements in net profit growth compared to Q1 2025 [3][24] - The TMT sector (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) demonstrated strong performance, with electronics and computing sectors showing significant improvements [3][24] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow showed a year-on-year improvement in Q2 2025, although overall cash flow levels remained low compared to the past decade [12][19] - The financing cash flow indicated a reduction in corporate debt repayment pressure, while investment cash flow remained stable [12][19] Dividend Distribution - As of August 30, 2025, 813 listed companies had disclosed and implemented dividends, with a total dividend payout of 642.8 billion yuan, reflecting an increase from 2024 [4][25]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices impacting its coal and coke business, while the power and heat business showed improvement in profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan, down 48.4% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.03 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 0.33 billion yuan, down 51.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Business Segment Analysis - **Coal Business**: In H1 2025, the coal business generated operating revenue of 10.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 4.94 billion yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year. The gross margin for this segment was 47.6%, a decline of 6.7 percentage points [2]. - **Power and Heat Business**: This segment achieved operating revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, but saw a significant increase in gross profit to 0.27 billion yuan, up 930.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 8.4%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points [2]. - **Coke Business**: The coke business reported a gross profit of 3.12 billion yuan, down 34.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of -1.6%, a decline of 2.2 percentage points, primarily due to falling coke prices [2]. Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.36 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling approximately 204.38 million yuan, which represents 20.16% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the decline in coal prices, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 1.86 billion yuan, 2.11 billion yuan, and 2.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -40.04%, +13.30%, and +12.65% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are projected to be 0.33 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.42 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.66, 19.12, and 16.97 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][4]. Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to falling coal prices, with a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The company has announced a cash dividend of RMB 0.36 per share, amounting to a total distribution of approximately RMB 204.38 million, which represents 20.16% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [3]. - Future performance is expected to improve as coking coal prices rebound, supported by the company's commitment to shareholder returns through dividends [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.05 billion, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.01 billion, down 48.4% year-on-year [1]. - The coal business generated revenue of RMB 10.39 billion, down 13.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 47.6%, reflecting a decline of 6.7 percentage points [2]. - The electricity and heat business showed improvement, with a gross profit margin of 8.4%, up 7.7 percentage points year-on-year, despite a revenue decline of 5.2% [2]. - The coking business faced significant challenges, with a gross profit margin of -1.6%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 37.3% drop in coking coal prices [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward due to falling coal prices, with expected net profits of RMB 1.86 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 2.38 billion, representing year-on-year changes of -40.04%, +13.30%, and +12.65% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be RMB 0.33, RMB 0.37, and RMB 0.42, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.66, 19.12, and 16.97 [4][5].