公司报告 | 季报点评 兖矿能源（600188） 证券研究报告 Q3 煤炭量价成本改善致业绩提升，关注煤炭成长性 公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度归母净利润同比-39.2% 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度公司实现营业收入 1049.6 亿元，同比 -11.6%；实现归母净利润 71.2 亿元，同比-39.2%；实现扣非归母净利润 65.2 亿元，同比-41%。其中公司于 2025 年第三季度合并了西北矿业的财务报 表，构成了同一控制下企业合并，公司对相关财务数据进行了追溯调整。 Q3 煤炭量价环比齐增，降本增效成果持续巩固 不含西北矿业情况：产销量方面，2025Q1-3 自产煤产/销量 11081.5/9803.5 万吨，同比+4.7%/+1.9%，贸易煤销量 408 万吨，同比-35.9%；单季度来看， 2025Q3 自产煤产/销量 3722/3569 万吨，环比+1.1%/+12.1%，贸易煤销量 161 万吨，环比+5.1%。单吨盈利方面，2025Q1-3 自产煤/贸易煤单吨售价 527/619 元/吨，同比-20.5%/-37.8%，自产煤/贸易煤单吨成本 357/537 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 213.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, while the operating cost was 136.32 billion yuan, down 19.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 14.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.2% but an increase of 13.54% quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by the power segment's profit growth [1] - The coal segment reported a revenue of 159.10 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 21.1%, with a total profit of 32.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year. The company produced 250.9 million tons of coal, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The power segment's revenue was 65.18 billion yuan, down 9.0%, while the profit increased by 20.4% year-on-year to 10.14 billion yuan, mainly due to a significant reduction in costs. The cost per kilowatt-hour decreased by 8% year-on-year to 0.3275 yuan [3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 54.00 billion, 54.09 billion, and 54.80 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 2.72, 2.72, and 2.76 yuan [3] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue decline of 1.00% in 2025, with a net profit decrease of 7.96% [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 677.81 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.42% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company's performance improved in Q3 2025 due to an increase in coal and electricity prices, indicating growth potential in the power sector [1][4]. - The company reported a net profit of 1.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%, but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.1% in Q3 [1]. - The report highlights the growth in electricity generation and sales, with a 28.2% year-on-year increase in electricity generation for the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.2 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3% [1]. - The coal production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 16.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [2]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 6.9% year-on-year to 523.2 yuan per ton for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 2.07 billion yuan, 2.28 billion yuan, and 2.42 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% in 2025 but growth in subsequent years [4]. Operational Highlights - The company’s electricity generation capacity is expected to grow with the commissioning of new power plants in 2026, enhancing its growth prospects [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in electricity sales volume, with a 43.4% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 2025 [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q3 2025 was approximately 0.3713 yuan per kilowatt-hour, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates high revenue stability and has increased its dividend payout ratio, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [4]. - The integrated operation model across the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors significantly enhances the company's performance stability, with a notable decline in coal prices having a lesser impact on net profit [1][2]. - The coal business remains stable, with effective cost control, as evidenced by a decrease in production costs per ton of self-produced coal [2]. - The electricity segment shows stable performance, with future capital expenditures expected to contribute positively to earnings growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 138.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.64 billion yuan, down 12% [1]. - The coal production volume was 165.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.7%, while coal sales volume fell by 10.9% [2]. - The electricity segment generated revenue of 40.54 billion yuan, down 10.3%, with certain areas like gas and solar power showing growth [3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 0.98 yuan per share, resulting in a total cash dividend of 19.471 billion yuan, achieving a payout ratio of 79.0%, the highest since 2022 [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 54.0 billion, 54.1 billion, and 54.7 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS projected at 2.72, 2.72, and 2.75 yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal prices and production volumes, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 38.5% in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.18 per share and initiate a share buyback program to return value to shareholders [3] - Future performance is expected to improve as coal prices stabilize and production capacity gradually increases, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 59.35 billion, down 17.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.65 billion, down 38.5% year-on-year [1] - The coal business saw a production and sales volume of 73.6 million and 64.81 million tons respectively, with a decrease in sales price for various coal types [2] - The company’s coal chemical segment showed a positive trend with a gross profit contribution of RMB 3.1 billion, up 29.2% year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of RMB 8.94 billion, RMB 9.65 billion, and RMB 10.69 billion respectively, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.89, RMB 0.96, and RMB 1.07 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.5, 13.5, and 12.2 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][4]. Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to falling coal prices, with a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The company has announced a cash dividend of RMB 0.36 per share, amounting to a total distribution of approximately RMB 204.38 million, which represents 20.16% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [3]. - Future performance is expected to improve as coking coal prices rebound, supported by the company's commitment to shareholder returns through dividends [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.05 billion, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.01 billion, down 48.4% year-on-year [1]. - The coal business generated revenue of RMB 10.39 billion, down 13.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 47.6%, reflecting a decline of 6.7 percentage points [2]. - The electricity and heat business showed improvement, with a gross profit margin of 8.4%, up 7.7 percentage points year-on-year, despite a revenue decline of 5.2% [2]. - The coking business faced significant challenges, with a gross profit margin of -1.6%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 37.3% drop in coking coal prices [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward due to falling coal prices, with expected net profits of RMB 1.86 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 2.38 billion, representing year-on-year changes of -40.04%, +13.30%, and +12.65% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be RMB 0.33, RMB 0.37, and RMB 0.42, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.66, 19.12, and 16.97 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 is reported at 77.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.19%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is 7.638 billion yuan, down 31.18% year-on-year [1]. - The coal business revenue is 68.378 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.67% decrease year-on-year, despite a slight increase in coal production and sales [2]. - The electricity business revenue is 6.775 billion yuan, down 11.21% year-on-year, with a notable decline in electricity sales volume [3]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 16.04 billion yuan and 17.29 billion yuan, respectively, and introduces a new forecast of 17.77 billion yuan for 2027 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 operating revenue: 77.983 billion yuan, down 14.19% year-on-year - H1 2025 operating cost: 56.071 billion yuan, down 6.43% year-on-year - H1 2025 net profit attributable to the parent: 7.638 billion yuan, down 31.18% year-on-year - H1 2025 coal production: 87.4 million tons, up 1.15% year-on-year - H1 2025 coal sales: 80.16 million tons, up 2.87% year-on-year - H1 2025 average coal price: 439.67 yuan/ton, down 23.81% year-on-year [1][2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected operating revenue for 2025: 148.454 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -19.38% - Projected net profit for 2025: 16.040 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -28.26% - Projected EPS for 2025: 1.65 yuan/share - Projected P/E ratio for 2025: 12.93 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 74.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.705 billion yuan, down 21.3% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [1][4] - The coal business saw a revenue decline of 22.1% year-on-year in H1 2025, but the company managed to reduce costs effectively, resulting in a stable profit performance [2] - The coal chemical business revenue decreased by 13.6% year-on-year in H1 2025, mainly due to product price declines and maintenance of the polyethylene unit [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 74.436 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.705 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.3% [1] - The coal business generated a revenue of 60.568 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 22.1% year-on-year, while the cost of goods sold was 46.221 billion yuan, down 20.2% [2] - The coal chemical segment reported a revenue of 9.36 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year, with stable performance in other product lines [3] Cost Management - The company demonstrated strong cost control, with the cost per ton of self-produced coal decreasing by 10.2% year-on-year to 262.97 yuan/ton [2] - Management and financial expenses saw a year-on-year decline, contributing to effective cost management despite rising sales expenses [2] Dividend Policy - The company announced a mid-year profit distribution plan, allocating 30% of the net profit for H1 2025, amounting to approximately 2.198 billion yuan, translating to a cash dividend of 0.166 yuan per share [4] Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 17.5 billion, 17.7 billion, and 18.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.32, 1.34, and 1.37 yuan per share [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.43 billion yuan, down 28.39% year-on-year [5] - The coal business showed strong performance with self-produced coal sales increasing by 6.68% year-on-year, while the average selling price of coal decreased by 16.31% [5] - The company plans to produce 155-160 million tons of coal in 2025, aiming for a 3% reduction in sales cost per ton compared to the previous year [5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 32.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.2%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.33% [5] - The average selling price of coal in Q4 was 637.79 yuan per ton, down 4.56% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.54 yuan per share for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 0.77 yuan per share, representing 53.59% of the net profit for the year [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenues of 125.8 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 130.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 9.5 billion yuan, 11.5 billion yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan [5][6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.39, 11.87, and 10.71 respectively [5][6] Market Comparison - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date decline of 34% [3][4] - The report indicates that the company's performance is expected to outperform the market in the coming months [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company has a stable net profit performance and places a high emphasis on shareholder returns [1] - The coal business shows stable growth with strong cost control capabilities [2] - The company benefits from a decrease in coal prices, leading to a reduction in unit sales costs [3] - The company is committed to a stable cash dividend policy, with a total cash dividend of approximately 6.355 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of about 35% [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards due to coal price risks, with projected net profits of 17.5 billion yuan and 17.7 billion yuan respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 189.399 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year [5] - The operating cost for 2024 was 142.278 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [5] - The attributable net profit for 2024 was 19.323 billion yuan, a decline of 1.1% year-on-year [5] - The company's cash flow from operations was 34.139 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.5% year-on-year [1] Coal Business Performance - The coal business generated operating revenue of 160.712 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year [2] - The total coal production for the year reached 137.57 million tons, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year [2] - The unit sales cost for self-produced coal was 281.73 yuan per ton, down 8.2% year-on-year [2] Coal Chemical Business Performance - The coal chemical business reported operating revenue of 20.518 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [3] - The total production of coal chemical products was 5.69 million tons, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year [3] Shareholder Returns - The company has increased the frequency of cash dividends, distributing a special dividend of 1.5 billion yuan, totaling 10.3 billion yuan for the year [4] - The company emphasizes market value management and investor communication [4]