1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper smelters, are countered by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season for consumption. With the global electrolytic copper inventory starting to accumulate, the upward space for copper prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 80,560, up 20 from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,386 lots, down 18,572; the open interest was 224,672 lots, up 1,550; the inventory was 24,103 tons, down 994 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,980, down 10; the Shanghai copper basis was 420, down 30; the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes, such as a 20 - point decrease in Guangzhou and East China [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,951.5, down 58.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 94,325; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87.61, down 8.59 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.196, up 0.08; the total inventory was 213,171, up 1,962 [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - news**: The US Senate - version "Six - Pretty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with potential fiscal deficit expansion. The Trump administration's tariff policy affects consumption, and the US ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with expected rate - cut months being September, October, or December [3]. - **Industry - specific News**: Some copper mines and smelters faced disruptions. For example, Las Bambas and Constancia had copper concentrate transportation interruptions; several smelters, including Pasar in the Philippines, Rosh Pinah in Namibia, and Altonorte in Chile, had production suspensions. Meanwhile, some new projects were progressing, such as the Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan's projects and other copper - related projects in China [4]. 3.3 Downstream Market - Some copper rod enterprises plan to cut production to reduce inventory in July. The capacity utilization rates of various copper products, including refined copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper foil, and copper pipes, are expected to decline in July, except for the potentially rising capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rod production [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the factors mentioned above, it is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 81,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 and 5.2 - 5.5) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has been postponed to September/December, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more apparent [1] - For alumina, the production disturbance of bauxite in Guinea may push up prices and support production costs, but the potential resumption of new or overhauled alumina production capacity may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. For electrolytic aluminum, the easing of China - US tariffs may lead to an expected rush to export, but the traditional consumption off - season may weaken downstream demand, causing wide - range price fluctuations. For aluminum alloy, the decreasing domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory and increasing aluminum alloy inventory may cause the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy to first strengthen and then weaken [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: In China, Shanxi and Henan mines have not fully resumed production, and there are production disturbances in Guinea and Guangxi. However, new alumina production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and Shanxi are being put into operation or under construction, which may increase domestic production in June. Overseas, projects like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project may increase production, and the opening of the import window may increase imports [3][26][31] - **Cost and price**: The daily average full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. Alumina prices may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3][23] - **Inventory situation**: The inventory in China's ports has increased, while the inventory in SHFE warehouses has decreased [14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic production capacity such as Luoyang Yichuan Yugang Longquan Aluminum's transfer project and Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's project may increase production in June. Overseas, production changes in factories like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and New Zealand's Tiwai Point may affect imports [4][56] - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton. The price may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [5] - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory in the bonded area has increased [40][43] Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum may decrease in June. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may also decrease. The expansion project of Yichiu Resources is gradually releasing production capacity, increasing the operating rate of secondary aluminum alloy production [7] - **Cost and profit**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,060 yuan/ton, and that of secondary aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,080 yuan/ton with negative profit [7] - **Inventory and price difference**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is decreasing, while the inventory of aluminum alloy is increasing. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may first strengthen and then weaken, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries are offset by the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State. This may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price was 257,000 yuan, down 7,690 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 96,332 lots, an increase of 64,437 lots; the open interest was 28,221 lots, an increase of 15,738 lots; the inventory was 7,984 tons, a decrease of 14 tons. The basis between spot and futures was 7,900 yuan, an increase of 7,790 yuan [1]. - **London Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was $31,495, down $915 from the previous day. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -$55, an increase of $56; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $27, an increase of $7. The global inventory was 2,680 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Price Ratio**: The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.17 on May 28, 2025, down 0.01 from the previous day [1]. Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of A$0.24 per share through an off - market conditional offer. The acquisition is subject to relevant regulatory approvals in Australia [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Myanmar, the Manxiang mine in Wa State has adjusted its fee standards, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产. Domestic tin concentrate processing fees are oscillating downward, indicating a tightening supply of tin ore. The expected increase in scrap tin supply is difficult to change the tight situation. The operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi have decreased. Malaysia's MSC has suspended tin production, and Indonesia has adjusted its export policies. The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, while the social inventory in China has increased [1]. - **Demand Side**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding strips has decreased, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate and inventory of tin solder in May in China. The import and export volume of welding strips may change accordingly. The production volume of tin - plated sheets in May may increase, while the import and export volumes may decrease. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries in China has remained flat [1].