美国就业数据趋弱使9/10/12月降息预期升温 全球电解铜库存持续累积或令铜价承压 2025年8月6日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 （从业资格证号：F03087656， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472） 有色金属周报(电解铜) 美国加征关税和传统消费淡季或抑制需求 全球电解铜库存量震荡趋增 有色金属周报(电解铜) 电解铜 宏观：美联储7月维持联邦基金利率不变，进口关税推升商品价格致美国6月消费端通胀CPI和PCE年率有 所升高，但因美国5-7月新增非农就业人数或大幅下修或远不及预期，美国经济呈现"滞胀"特征，使美联 储9/10/12月降息预期升温。 上游：Newmont旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生坍塌事故而暂停运营， 盎格鲁亚洲矿业旗下Demirli铜矿开始试生产使25年铜精矿生产量为4000吨，山西运城垣曲县五龙实业旗下 洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源MMG旗下Las Bambas和Hudbay旗下Constancia因非正规 矿工暂停封路抗议至7月18日，紫金矿业旗下卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿西侧已于6月初复产但东侧排水或持续至9 月，或使国内8月铜精矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate cut expectation is almost impossible, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more obvious [1]. - For alumina, the national policy guides the clearance of backward production capacity, but the falling price of Guinean bauxite weakens cost support, and the price may be adjusted. For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - bullish drive cools down, social inventory accumulates, and the price may face adjustment. For aluminum alloy, domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is in the red, inventory is increasing, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side situation**: The 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started production in June, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices were flat. New and expanded alumina production capacities in China and overseas are expected to increase production in July. The domestic operating capacity decreased, but inventory increased [2]. - **Cost situation**: The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with different costs in different regions [25]. - **Inventory situation**: The total inventory of SHFE alumina warehouses and plants decreased last week, while the inventory at Chinese ports increased [14]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,100 - 3,300 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side situation**: Domestic production capacity transfer and new projects are expected to increase production in July, and imports may also increase due to overseas production capacity changes [3][58][61]. - **Demand situation**: The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises decreased or remained flat, and traditional consumption off - season led to weakening demand [3]. - **Inventory situation**: Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories increased last week, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased [34][42]. - **Investment strategy**: In the short - term, investors should consider price corrections. For SHFE aluminum contract 2508, focus on the support level around 19,000 - 20,000 and the resistance level around 20,800 - 21,000; for LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2,450 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,600 - 2,650 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side situation**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease [6][81]. - **Cost and profit situation**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and the daily full production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profit [6]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy is increasing, and the import and export of non - wrought aluminum alloy may decrease [6]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 19,900 - 20,000 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper smelters, are countered by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season for consumption. With the global electrolytic copper inventory starting to accumulate, the upward space for copper prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 80,560, up 20 from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,386 lots, down 18,572; the open interest was 224,672 lots, up 1,550; the inventory was 24,103 tons, down 994 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,980, down 10; the Shanghai copper basis was 420, down 30; the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes, such as a 20 - point decrease in Guangzhou and East China [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,951.5, down 58.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 94,325; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87.61, down 8.59 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.196, up 0.08; the total inventory was 213,171, up 1,962 [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - news**: The US Senate - version "Six - Pretty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with potential fiscal deficit expansion. The Trump administration's tariff policy affects consumption, and the US ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with expected rate - cut months being September, October, or December [3]. - **Industry - specific News**: Some copper mines and smelters faced disruptions. For example, Las Bambas and Constancia had copper concentrate transportation interruptions; several smelters, including Pasar in the Philippines, Rosh Pinah in Namibia, and Altonorte in Chile, had production suspensions. Meanwhile, some new projects were progressing, such as the Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan's projects and other copper - related projects in China [4]. 3.3 Downstream Market - Some copper rod enterprises plan to cut production to reduce inventory in July. The capacity utilization rates of various copper products, including refined copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper foil, and copper pipes, are expected to decline in July, except for the potentially rising capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rod production [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the factors mentioned above, it is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 81,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 and 5.2 - 5.5) [5].

Market Review - The main contract for stainless steel closed at 12,635 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% (+95 CNY), and a single position of 224,900 lots, which is a decrease of 48,262 lots compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - A stainless steel plant in East China has entered a regular maintenance period until June 30, which is expected to impact the production of 300 series stainless steel by nearly 10,000 tons [2] - As of June 27, the benchmark price for stainless steel plates was 11,764.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.63% compared to the beginning of the month (12,207.14 CNY/ton). On June 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 112,446 tons of stainless steel warehouse receipts, a decrease of 421 tons from the previous trading day [3] Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, which will exacerbate raw material disruptions. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is increasing, leading to a significant rebound in output, while nickel iron prices have recently dropped, reducing support for raw material costs. Steel mills are maintaining normal production but are reducing the output of the severely loss-making 300 series stainless steel due to cost pressures, although total output remains at historically high levels, indicating ongoing supply pressure. Demand is entering a traditional off-season, with increased macro market uncertainty and export demand pressure, while downstream performance remains cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is not performing well. On the technical side, the reduction in positions has weakened short positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure. The recommendation is to observe for the time being [4] - New Lake Futures reported that a market rumor indicated Qingshan plans to reduce production by about 150,000 tons in July, primarily affecting the 300 series. This news has significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in stainless steel prices. However, due to overall weak consumption of stainless steel, the rebound is expected to be limited [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has been postponed to September/December, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more apparent [1] - For alumina, the production disturbance of bauxite in Guinea may push up prices and support production costs, but the potential resumption of new or overhauled alumina production capacity may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. For electrolytic aluminum, the easing of China - US tariffs may lead to an expected rush to export, but the traditional consumption off - season may weaken downstream demand, causing wide - range price fluctuations. For aluminum alloy, the decreasing domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory and increasing aluminum alloy inventory may cause the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy to first strengthen and then weaken [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: In China, Shanxi and Henan mines have not fully resumed production, and there are production disturbances in Guinea and Guangxi. However, new alumina production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and Shanxi are being put into operation or under construction, which may increase domestic production in June. Overseas, projects like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project may increase production, and the opening of the import window may increase imports [3][26][31] - **Cost and price**: The daily average full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. Alumina prices may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3][23] - **Inventory situation**: The inventory in China's ports has increased, while the inventory in SHFE warehouses has decreased [14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic production capacity such as Luoyang Yichuan Yugang Longquan Aluminum's transfer project and Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's project may increase production in June. Overseas, production changes in factories like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and New Zealand's Tiwai Point may affect imports [4][56] - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton. The price may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [5] - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory in the bonded area has increased [40][43] Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum may decrease in June. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may also decrease. The expansion project of Yichiu Resources is gradually releasing production capacity, increasing the operating rate of secondary aluminum alloy production [7] - **Cost and profit**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,060 yuan/ton, and that of secondary aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,080 yuan/ton with negative profit [7] - **Inventory and price difference**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is decreasing, while the inventory of aluminum alloy is increasing. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may first strengthen and then weaken, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities [7]