1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening US employment market has raised expectations of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand, leading to an upward trend in the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad. As a result, there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [4]. - The positive basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper are generally within a reasonable range. The negative spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are at relatively low levels, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper and Shanghai copper has significantly declined. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Environment - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the annual rates of US consumer - end inflation CPI and PCE in June. However, due to the significant downward revision or far - below - expected new non - farm payrolls from May to July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December [3]. Upstream Market - **Copper Concentrate** - Multiple incidents occurred in overseas mines, including accidents at Newmont's Red Chris copper mine, the start of trial production at Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine, and others. These may lead to a month - on - month increase in domestic copper concentrate production and imports in August [3][25]. - The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has increased compared to last week. The port copper concentrate out - bound volume in the world and in China has decreased, while the in - bound volume in China has increased, and the inventory in Chinese ports has decreased [22]. - **Scrap Copper** - The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper weakens the economic viability of scrap copper. The export of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations. As a result, the production of domestic scrap copper in August may increase month - on - month, while imports may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [26][30]. - **Blister Copper** - The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) compared to last week. The smelting maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in August may decrease month - on - month, leading to a month - on - month increase in the production and imports of domestic blister copper in August [33]. Mid - stream Market - **Electrolytic Copper** - The production of domestic electrolytic copper in August may decrease month - on - month due to the start of new projects and other factors. The import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in August may also decrease month - on - month because of the maintenance and production reduction of overseas smelters and the backlog of electrolytic copper at African ports [34][36][39]. - **Copper Smelters** - The daily dispersion index of global copper smelters has increased compared to last week. The smelting maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in August may decrease month - on - month [40][42]. Downstream Market - **Copper Products Enterprises** - Affected by the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper products enterprises in August may decline, increase, decrease, and decrease respectively on a month - on - month basis [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's refined (recycled) copper rod production enterprises has increased compared to last week. The raw material and finished - product inventories of refined copper rod enterprises have increased, while those of recycled copper rod enterprises have decreased [45][47][50]. - The capacity utilization rate and production volume of China's refined copper rod production enterprises in August may increase month - on - month, while those of recycled copper rod production enterprises may decrease month - on - month [55][58]. - The raw material and finished - product inventories of China's copper wire and cable enterprises have decreased compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate in August may decrease month - on - month [59][63]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire enterprises has decreased compared to last week, and it may also decrease month - on - month in August [65][68]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper strip enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month due to the impact of US tariff policies [72][74]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper foil enterprises in August may increase month - on - month, supported by lithium - battery demand [75]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month as the expected production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August is lower than that of last year [79][81]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod enterprises in August may increase month - on - month as the decline in copper prices may slightly boost demand [82]. Market Structure and Inventory - **Market Structure** - The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near - and far - month contracts show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12]. - **Inventory** - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory in bonded areas has decreased, and the inventory of LME copper has increased [15][16]. - The inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week, and the ratio of non - commercial long to short positions has decreased [17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate cut expectation is almost impossible, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more obvious [1]. - For alumina, the national policy guides the clearance of backward production capacity, but the falling price of Guinean bauxite weakens cost support, and the price may be adjusted. For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - bullish drive cools down, social inventory accumulates, and the price may face adjustment. For aluminum alloy, domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is in the red, inventory is increasing, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side situation**: The 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started production in June, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices were flat. New and expanded alumina production capacities in China and overseas are expected to increase production in July. The domestic operating capacity decreased, but inventory increased [2]. - **Cost situation**: The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with different costs in different regions [25]. - **Inventory situation**: The total inventory of SHFE alumina warehouses and plants decreased last week, while the inventory at Chinese ports increased [14]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,100 - 3,300 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side situation**: Domestic production capacity transfer and new projects are expected to increase production in July, and imports may also increase due to overseas production capacity changes [3][58][61]. - **Demand situation**: The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises decreased or remained flat, and traditional consumption off - season led to weakening demand [3]. - **Inventory situation**: Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories increased last week, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased [34][42]. - **Investment strategy**: In the short - term, investors should consider price corrections. For SHFE aluminum contract 2508, focus on the support level around 19,000 - 20,000 and the resistance level around 20,800 - 21,000; for LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2,450 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,600 - 2,650 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side situation**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease [6][81]. - **Cost and profit situation**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and the daily full production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profit [6]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy is increasing, and the import and export of non - wrought aluminum alloy may decrease [6]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 19,900 - 20,000 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper smelters, are countered by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season for consumption. With the global electrolytic copper inventory starting to accumulate, the upward space for copper prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 80,560, up 20 from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,386 lots, down 18,572; the open interest was 224,672 lots, up 1,550; the inventory was 24,103 tons, down 994 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,980, down 10; the Shanghai copper basis was 420, down 30; the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes, such as a 20 - point decrease in Guangzhou and East China [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,951.5, down 58.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 94,325; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87.61, down 8.59 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.196, up 0.08; the total inventory was 213,171, up 1,962 [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - news**: The US Senate - version "Six - Pretty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with potential fiscal deficit expansion. The Trump administration's tariff policy affects consumption, and the US ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with expected rate - cut months being September, October, or December [3]. - **Industry - specific News**: Some copper mines and smelters faced disruptions. For example, Las Bambas and Constancia had copper concentrate transportation interruptions; several smelters, including Pasar in the Philippines, Rosh Pinah in Namibia, and Altonorte in Chile, had production suspensions. Meanwhile, some new projects were progressing, such as the Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan's projects and other copper - related projects in China [4]. 3.3 Downstream Market - Some copper rod enterprises plan to cut production to reduce inventory in July. The capacity utilization rates of various copper products, including refined copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper foil, and copper pipes, are expected to decline in July, except for the potentially rising capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rod production [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the factors mentioned above, it is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 81,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 and 5.2 - 5.5) [5].

Market Review - The main contract for stainless steel closed at 12,635 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% (+95 CNY), and a single position of 224,900 lots, which is a decrease of 48,262 lots compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - A stainless steel plant in East China has entered a regular maintenance period until June 30, which is expected to impact the production of 300 series stainless steel by nearly 10,000 tons [2] - As of June 27, the benchmark price for stainless steel plates was 11,764.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.63% compared to the beginning of the month (12,207.14 CNY/ton). On June 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 112,446 tons of stainless steel warehouse receipts, a decrease of 421 tons from the previous trading day [3] Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, which will exacerbate raw material disruptions. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is increasing, leading to a significant rebound in output, while nickel iron prices have recently dropped, reducing support for raw material costs. Steel mills are maintaining normal production but are reducing the output of the severely loss-making 300 series stainless steel due to cost pressures, although total output remains at historically high levels, indicating ongoing supply pressure. Demand is entering a traditional off-season, with increased macro market uncertainty and export demand pressure, while downstream performance remains cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is not performing well. On the technical side, the reduction in positions has weakened short positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure. The recommendation is to observe for the time being [4] - New Lake Futures reported that a market rumor indicated Qingshan plans to reduce production by about 150,000 tons in July, primarily affecting the 300 series. This news has significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in stainless steel prices. However, due to overall weak consumption of stainless steel, the rebound is expected to be limited [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has been postponed to September/December, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more apparent [1] - For alumina, the production disturbance of bauxite in Guinea may push up prices and support production costs, but the potential resumption of new or overhauled alumina production capacity may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. For electrolytic aluminum, the easing of China - US tariffs may lead to an expected rush to export, but the traditional consumption off - season may weaken downstream demand, causing wide - range price fluctuations. For aluminum alloy, the decreasing domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory and increasing aluminum alloy inventory may cause the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy to first strengthen and then weaken [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: In China, Shanxi and Henan mines have not fully resumed production, and there are production disturbances in Guinea and Guangxi. However, new alumina production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and Shanxi are being put into operation or under construction, which may increase domestic production in June. Overseas, projects like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project may increase production, and the opening of the import window may increase imports [3][26][31] - **Cost and price**: The daily average full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. Alumina prices may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3][23] - **Inventory situation**: The inventory in China's ports has increased, while the inventory in SHFE warehouses has decreased [14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic production capacity such as Luoyang Yichuan Yugang Longquan Aluminum's transfer project and Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's project may increase production in June. Overseas, production changes in factories like Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and New Zealand's Tiwai Point may affect imports [4][56] - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton. The price may fluctuate widely, and investors are advised to wait and watch, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [5] - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory in the bonded area has increased [40][43] Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum may decrease in June. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may also decrease. The expansion project of Yichiu Resources is gradually releasing production capacity, increasing the operating rate of secondary aluminum alloy production [7] - **Cost and profit**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,060 yuan/ton, and that of secondary aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,080 yuan/ton with negative profit [7] - **Inventory and price difference**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is decreasing, while the inventory of aluminum alloy is increasing. The price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy may first strengthen and then weaken, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities [7]