Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - For aluminum, due to the complex situation of production and demand, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - Nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term with a cost - supported downside limit and a supply surplus situation [3][5] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and it is necessary to focus on supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of May 21, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.31% to 78,100 yuan/ton. Macro factors are positive, but the demand shows weakening signs, and the support of inventory for copper prices is weakening [1] Aluminum - As of May 21, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.65% to 20,190 yuan/ton. The alumina price has rebounded, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The downstream demand may weaken, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - As of May 21, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.05% to 123,280 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 21, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract rose 1.11% to 267,730 yuan/ton. The tin ore supply is tight, and the production resumption expectation is strong. The price volatility is expected to increase [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price rose, but the spot market trading was light, and the spot premium decline suppressed the price [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rose, but the market transaction was mediocre, and the high - price supply demand was weak [8] Alumina - The alumina spot price in different regions rose, and the market trading was active with sufficient trading momentum [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price rose, but the downstream procurement was cautious, and the transaction was light [10] Lead - The spot lead price rose, and the market activity increased slightly with mainly rigid - demand procurement [11][12] Nickel - The spot nickel price rose, but the traders were cautious, and the transaction was light [13] Tin - The spot tin price rose, the traders' rigid - demand restocking willingness increased, and there was a phenomenon of reluctant selling [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For copper, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,520 tons to 41,218 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,925 tons to 168,825 tons [16] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,625 tons to 59,521 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,025 tons to 388,900 tons [16] - For zinc, SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons [16] - For lead, SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3,884 tons to 41,096 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 36,375 tons to 282,125 tons [16] - For nickel, SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 128 tons to 23,014 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons [16] - For tin, SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8,070 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons to 2,670 tons [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is favorable, but the fundamentals of non - ferrous metals are mixed. Copper may maintain a volatile pattern, aluminum requires observation, nickel is expected to oscillate weakly, and tin price volatility may increase [1][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract 06 dropped 0.63% to 77,820 yuan/ton. The macro trading sentiment has warmed up, but the fundamentals are weakening with demand showing signs of decline and inventory starting to accumulate at a low level. The spot premium may be under pressure, and it may maintain a volatile pattern [1] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices dropped significantly. The downstream's low purchasing willingness led to light trading during the day [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,334 tons to 61,913 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 174,325 tons [16] Aluminum - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract 07 fell 0.20% to 20,110 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has affected alumina prices. Alumina production capacity and inventory are changing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - In the spot market, the aluminum market's trading was stable with most areas having a small premium, while the Guangdong market was at a discount. The alumina market's trading heat continued to rise [8] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 323 tons to 62,497 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 393,450 tons [16] Nickel - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract 06 dropped 0.67% to 123,850 yuan/ton. The macro situation has changed, and the supply - demand relationship in the nickel market is complex. The cost is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [5] - In the spot market, some merchants replenished their stocks at low prices at the beginning of the week, but overall trading activity needs further improvement [13] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons to 23,471 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 6,786 tons to 202,008 tons [16] Tin - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract 06 fell 0.22% to 264,860 yuan/ton. Tin production and import - export data have changed. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine resumption. The price volatility may increase, and it is necessary to focus on supply and demand [6] - In the spot market, merchants replenished their stocks at low prices for essential needs [14] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 64 tons to 8,119 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 5 tons to 2,740 tons [16] Zinc - In the spot market, the price of zinc dropped. The market trading was lackluster, with loose supply leading to a decline in the premium and weak trading [9][10] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 474 tons to 1,701 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 160,800 tons [16] Lead - In the spot market, the price of lead dropped. The downstream replenished stocks as needed, and the overall trading was average [11][12] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 126 tons to 50,047 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 246,350 tons [16]

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 名称 | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2506 （主力） | 3485 | 3481 | 4 | 0.11% | | BU2507 | 3462 | 3467 | - 5 | -0.14% | | BU2508 | 3437 | 3448 | -11 | -0.32% | | SC2506 | 479.5 | 482.3 | -2.8 | -0.58% | | Brent首行 | 64.89 | 64.72 | 0.2 | 0.26% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 9.5 | 10.8 | -1.2 | -11.30% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 13.1 | 16.6 | -3.4 | -20.72% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 85980 | 86120 | -140 | -0.16% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU06-07 ...