近期，招银国际发布《中美宏观经济与大类资产配置》报告，深入剖析了2025年中美两国的经济走势、政策方向及大类资产配置建议。 在美国方面，经济呈现短期"滞胀"态势。 2025年GDP增速预计将从2024年的2.8%放缓至1.7%，通胀压力短期内可能反弹，PCE通胀率预计在三季度升至2.8%、四季度达2.9%。 房地产市场延续滞涨格局，高利率环境下购房能力与销量均处于历史低位，大量房主因低利率房贷"锁定"而不愿换房，导致库存紧张。 与此同时，中低收入家庭财务压力加大，消费贷款拖欠率升至历史高位。 企业盈利增速也出现下调，尤其是对贸易战和经济周期敏感的工业、能源、原材料等行业。 在此背景下，美联储预计将在2025年9月至12月降息两次，2026年再降息两次，最终政策利率或降至3.25%-3.5%区间。 然而，由于白宫可能加强对美联储的影响，市场通胀预期不稳，叠加政府债务攀升，国债收益率或仍将居高不下。 美股估值面临压力，经济痛苦指数（通胀+失业）可能反弹，压制股市表现。 短期建议关注医疗、必选消费、通讯服务、材料和工业等板块。 整体来看，美股处于牛市后期，适合长期定投。 大类资产配置上，建议超配大宗商品，标配股票与 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Economic Environment**: The global economy is experiencing a dual easing of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly benefiting Europe and China, leading to a phase of economic moderation that supports exports and overall growth [1][5] - **US Economic Resilience**: Despite fluctuations in non-farm payroll data, the US job market remains stable with an unemployment rate around 4.2%, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September and December to address uncertainties [1][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth Forecast**: The US GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, which is a healthy decline from potential growth rates, avoiding recession risks [1][8][9] - **China's Export Outlook**: The postponement of the US-China joint communiqué negotiations provides stability for Chinese exports, which are expected to improve, with trade surpluses likely to reach new highs [1][5][14] - **Domestic Demand Risks**: China's economic slowdown in the second half of the year is primarily driven by domestic demand, particularly in infrastructure and real estate, with expectations for the real estate market to stabilize by Q3 of the following year [1][16][17] Additional Important Content - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: Stocks are viewed as having better relative value compared to bonds, with short-term optimism for the pharmaceutical and TMT sectors, and a one-year outlook favoring machinery and automotive industries [1][20] - **Commodity Price Outlook**: A bearish outlook on oil prices is noted, with copper prices expected to slightly decline, and precious metals prices likely to remain capped due to limited impact from Fed rate cuts [1][23][24] - **Real Estate and Oil & Gas Sector Evaluation**: The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization but lacks conditions for sustained recovery, while the oil and gas sector is advised to be avoided due to strong supply expectations and weak demand [1][24][25] Conclusion - **Overall Economic Stability**: The US economy is projected to maintain a relatively stable trajectory despite challenges, with the potential for a new round of interest rate cuts initiated by the Federal Reserve in response to economic uncertainties [1][12][13]