根据美国数据，今年前六个月，美国从中国进口的商品总额只有大约132亿美元，而出口到中国的是大约114亿美元，这比去年同期下降了不少。中国海关总 署的数据也显示，前七个月中美贸易额是3372亿美元，同比降了12%。这说明摩擦升级后，贸易规模确实在缩水。要是完全脱钩，意思就是零贸易往来，那 影响肯定更大，但中国还能不能繁荣下去，得看具体情况。 先说脱钩的可能性。脱钩不是一夜之间的事，从2018年贸易战开始，美国就一步步加关税，今年特朗普上台后，又在4月威胁加50%的关税，把一些税率推 到104%。不过5月双方达成了有限协议，只保留了10%的基础关税，中国也取消了部分反制措施。这说明完全脱钩目前还没发生，但趋势在往那儿走。美国 智库报告说，冲突从关税扩展到科技、金融，挤压了中美经济空间。中国对美出口从2024年的近4400亿美元，现在前五个月就降到1774亿美元，同比跌 9.7%。如果彻底断开，中国出口那块儿得损失大头，顺差也从去年的2633亿美元缩减。 完全脱钩对中国是挑战，但有底气扛住，通过经验和方案继续繁荣。美元地位在动摇，趋势向下，但短期稳固。未来经贸走向取决于谈判，但存量博弈没缓 和余地。全球总蛋糕没大， ...

Core Viewpoint - The China-U.S. economic and trade relationship remains significant despite challenges, with both countries being important economic partners [1]. Summary by Sections - The China-U.S. economic and trade relationship has faced numerous challenges since 2018, primarily due to unilateralism and protectionism from the U.S., which has disrupted normal trade cooperation [1]. - Despite a decrease in the share of trade between the two countries, the overall bilateral trade has remained stable, with projected trade volumes in 2024 reaching $688.3 billion for goods and $155.8 billion for services, representing growth of 18% and 34.7% respectively since 2017 [1]. - The essence of the China-U.S. economic and trade relationship is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, which is the only correct path forward [2]. - Disagreements and friction are inevitable in China-U.S. economic cooperation, and dialogue and consultation are the best ways to resolve issues [3]. - China’s position is consistent, firmly defending national interests and international fairness and justice [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and importance of Sino-U.S. economic relations despite ongoing trade tensions and challenges, highlighting that both countries remain significant economic partners. Summary by Sections Overview of Sino-U.S. Economic Relations - The Ministry of Commerce states that since 2018, the U.S. has initiated trade frictions, which have severely impacted normal economic cooperation between China and the U.S. [2] - Despite a decrease in the share of trade between the two countries, the overall bilateral trade remains stable, with projected trade volumes in 2024 reaching $688.3 billion for goods and $155.8 billion for services, representing growth of 18% and 34.7% respectively since 2017 [2] Key Statements on Economic Relations - First Statement: Sino-U.S. economic relations have faced challenges, yet both countries continue to be important economic partners [3] - Second Statement: The essence of Sino-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, which is the only correct path forward [4] - Third Statement: Disagreements and frictions are inevitable in economic cooperation, and dialogue and consultation are the best ways to resolve issues [5] - Fourth Statement: China’s position is consistent, firmly defending national interests and international fairness and justice [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes that the economic and trade relationship between China and the United States remains strong despite challenges, and that artificial "decoupling" is not feasible [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Relationship - Since 2018, unilateralism and protectionism from the U.S. have led to increased trade frictions, significantly impacting normal economic cooperation between China and the U.S. [1] - Despite a decrease in the share of bilateral trade in each country's total trade, overall trade between China and the U.S. has remained stable [1] Trade Data - In 2024, the total goods trade between China and the U.S. is projected to reach $688.3 billion, while service trade is expected to be $155.8 billion, representing increases of 18% and 34.7% respectively compared to 2017 [1] - The data indicates a solid economic and public support foundation for China-U.S. economic cooperation [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, highlighting the lack of trust and ongoing minor conflicts despite the official announcement [1] - The article notes that both countries are reluctant to escalate the situation due to their nuclear capabilities, which serves as a deterrent against full-scale war [1] - The military-industrial sector in A-shares is expected to face a downturn as the conflict narrative diminishes, while Eastern military industries may benefit from increased visibility in global markets [2] Group 2 - The article mentions a significant price reduction in a Beijing property developed by Li Ka-shing's company, indicating a broader trend of declining real estate prices in China [3] - The current average price in Beijing has dropped by 26% from its peak in 2023, reflecting a return to levels seen in 2016 [3] - The article discusses the implications of property price fluctuations on the affordability of housing for new entrants in the market, emphasizing the challenges faced by recent buyers [3] Group 3 - The article touches on the ongoing negotiations between the US and China, with no official results announced yet, but suggests that the Chinese side may be more prepared for economic decoupling [4] - It highlights a recent trade agreement between the US and the UK, which involves some tariff reductions but maintains a 10% base tariff [4] - The article reports on the Chinese government's efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, indicating a focus on regulatory enforcement [5] Group 4 - The article notes a decrease in interest rates, with deposit rates falling below 2% and loan rates returning to below 3% [5] - It mentions a decline in CPI by 0.1% and PPI by 2.7%, indicating ongoing negative inflation trends in the economy [5]