Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) President indicated that there is a possibility of negative inflation in Switzerland in the coming months [1] Group 1 - The SNB is closely monitoring economic conditions and inflation trends [1] - The potential for negative inflation suggests a shift in the economic landscape that could impact monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects concerns about economic growth and price stability in Switzerland [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is willing to tolerate negative inflation in the short term, indicating a flexible monetary policy approach to current economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Swiss companies are postponing investment decisions, reflecting uncertainty in the economic environment [1] - Tariff situations are posing significant challenges for some businesses, impacting their operational strategies [1]

近期，部分中小银行出现存款利率倒挂现象——1年期存款利率（2%）高于5年期存款利率（1.95%）。 类似的情况年初也曾发生在招商银行身上。这一现象并非偶然，而是市场对未来利率走势的预期反应。 结合全球经验（如美国国债利率倒挂预示降息）和中国经济现状，这一现象可能预示着中国未来几年利 率将持续下行，甚至2%的平均利率水平可能成为新常态。那么，利率倒挂背后反映了怎样的经济逻 辑？中国是否正在步入长期低利率时代？负通胀风险是否已经显现？ 为何长期利率低于短期？ 利率倒挂通常被视为经济放缓甚至衰退的前兆。在正常情况下，长期存款利率应高于短期利率，因为银 行需要支付更高的回报以吸引储户锁定资金。然而，当市场普遍预期未来利率会下降时，银行会主动降 低长期存款利率，以避免未来因市场利率下行而被迫支付更高的固定利息成本。 美国国债市场曾多次出现类似情况。例如，2023年美国2年期国债收益率一度高于10年期国债收益率， 市场普遍解读为美联储即将降息。而这一预期在2024年得到验证——美联储因通胀放缓和经济疲软开始 降息。同理，中国中小银行的利率倒挂可能意味着市场认为未来几年央行将继续降息，因此银行不愿在 高利率环境下锁定长期负 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, highlighting the lack of trust and ongoing minor conflicts despite the official announcement [1] - The article notes that both countries are reluctant to escalate the situation due to their nuclear capabilities, which serves as a deterrent against full-scale war [1] - The military-industrial sector in A-shares is expected to face a downturn as the conflict narrative diminishes, while Eastern military industries may benefit from increased visibility in global markets [2] Group 2 - The article mentions a significant price reduction in a Beijing property developed by Li Ka-shing's company, indicating a broader trend of declining real estate prices in China [3] - The current average price in Beijing has dropped by 26% from its peak in 2023, reflecting a return to levels seen in 2016 [3] - The article discusses the implications of property price fluctuations on the affordability of housing for new entrants in the market, emphasizing the challenges faced by recent buyers [3] Group 3 - The article touches on the ongoing negotiations between the US and China, with no official results announced yet, but suggests that the Chinese side may be more prepared for economic decoupling [4] - It highlights a recent trade agreement between the US and the UK, which involves some tariff reductions but maintains a 10% base tariff [4] - The article reports on the Chinese government's efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, indicating a focus on regulatory enforcement [5] Group 4 - The article notes a decrease in interest rates, with deposit rates falling below 2% and loan rates returning to below 3% [5] - It mentions a decline in CPI by 0.1% and PPI by 2.7%, indicating ongoing negative inflation trends in the economy [5]

这个就是增加融券做空者的成本，增加了他们需要支付的保证金。这个数字也调好几次了，早先是 50%，后来为了限制做空调高到80%，这次加到100%。与之相对的，官方鼓励股民做多，下调了融资的 保证金，也是前几个月的事。 不管昨天的140亿是不是境外回援的官军，反正今天它们没有继续出现，今天北上通道的数据是净卖出 17亿，昨天的反弹戛然而止，a股又变回了前几天的老样子，中位数-0.89%，差不多把昨天反弹的一半 跌了回去。 就这样退二进一，退二进一，大盘逐渐被打向低位，几个大盘指数看起来还好，但指数外的边角料，像 低价股和微盘股这两个板块今天收盘的时候又快创新低了。 收盘后监管又出了几项限制做空的新政： 1、批准暂停转融券业务，已有的存量依法展期并不晚于9月30日了结。 很多读者分不清融券和转融券业务的区别，简单说融券就是你找券商借股票来卖出做空，但券商手里的 股票有限，一些紧俏的被借光了怎么办呢，可以去找银行、投资机构、大股东，向他们借手里不交易的 股票，借过来之后再供二级市场做空，这就是转融券。 现在转融券业务要被暂停了，存量9月底出清，这部分大概会减少300亿左右的抛盘，由于之前连续打 压，转融券的总规模已经 ...

很多对经济不太懂的网友觉得利率是官方定的，官方要加息就加息，想降息就降息，其实这个理解是不对的。无论中美，真正决定利率的是社会整体的经 济活跃程度，假如现在经济活跃，社会上有很多生意都有机会挣到一年8-10%的利润，那一定会有很多人愿意以4-5%的利息借钱，这个时候官方想压利率 都压不住。 先顺着昨晚的说吧，美联储的利率决议没有出现意外，继续维持5.25-5.5%的利率区间不变，这是符合市场预期的，因此并没有给市场造成太大的冲击。 由19名委员投出来的利率点阵图今年的利率预期是5-5.25%，2025年是4-4.25%，2026年是3.25%左右，至于更远的周期分歧就很大了，从2.5到3.5%的都 有。 19名委员里有4个人认为今年不应该降息，7人认为降一次，8人认为应该降两次。这是最新的判断，后续随着经济数据的波动还会动态调整。 今天a股两市成交7500亿，几个指数表现都中规中矩，但中位数下跌0.75%，股民有一定的痛感。 值得一提的是贵州茅台散装飞天茅台的价格击穿了2400，最新已经跌至2320一瓶，可能你们买酒的人觉得一瓶差个百八十块的也不算啥，但除了消费喝茅 台的人之外，这个市场上还有很多人把茅台当作 ...