明明(中信证券首席经济学家) 往后看，预计买断式逆回购次日操作将和MLF共同作为中长期流动性的投放渠道，前者主要提供3M、 6M期限的资金品种，后者提供1Y(1年)期限的资金品种，共同维持流动性合理充裕，而操作上也将采取 类似的操作前一天5点发布公告的模式。 从数量端看，本次公告3M买断式逆回购操作1万亿元，且并未对6M品种操作。5月长端流动性投放中， MLF净投放3750亿元，买断式逆回购净回笼2000亿元，而降准0.5个百分点释放1万亿元长期资金。总的 来看，5月央行长端流动性供给超万亿元，与之相对，5月国债净缴款9102亿元，是2025年以来的最高水 准；地方政府债净缴款5470亿元。由此可见，5月长端流动性投放基本可以对冲政府债净缴款压力。基 于我们的测算，得益于到期规模较大，预计6月政府债发行压力或低于5月；考虑到降准等总量工具或暂 歇增量，既要对冲政府债发行压力，又要兼顾央行货币工具的到期续作，预计本月MLF可能延续净投 放。考虑到6月MLF到期规模仅为1820亿元，预计央行对其超额续作的压力并不大。另一方面，买断式 逆回购并未限制一个月仅操作一次，考虑到当下6M品种尚未操作，结合央行近期维持流动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the focus of monetary policy shifts from "stabilizing the exchange rate and preventing idle circulation" in Q1 to "stabilizing growth" since the start of the trade - war, the capital market re - balances. The capital market in April was generally balanced and loose, with capital interest rates moving closer to the 7D OMO policy rate. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [2][6]. - There may be a certain gap in the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The pressure on the bank's liability side and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May indicate the need for the central bank to provide liquidity support, especially medium - and long - term support. The order of loose monetary policy remains "reserve requirement ratio cut + structural monetary policy tools first, interest rate cut later" [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - In April, the capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 dropping from around 1.8% to around 1.6%, and the DR007 - R007 spread remaining within 10bp and even within 5bp from the middle of the month. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [6]. - In April, the net lending balance fluctuated around 3 trillion yuan, a historically low level, and the decline of certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates faced resistance after mid - April, indicating a possible gap in medium - and long - term bank liquidity. The government plans to use 5 trillion yuan in investment funds this year, with the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds starting issuance on April 24 and 7 more issues to be issued from May to June. As of April, 1.19 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds have been issued [7]. - The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The bank's liability side pressure and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May require the central bank to provide liquidity support. The mid - and long - term liquidity roll - over pressure in May has significantly decreased compared to April. If the "timely reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut" is implemented in May, it is expected to drive down the capital interest rate center [8][11]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From April 21 to April 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for medium - and long - term liquidity support. The capital market became loose after being balanced. DR001 dropped from 1.72% to 1.58%, R001 from 1.74% to 1.58%, DR007 from 1.71% to 1.64%, and R007 from 1.73% to 1.66%. The spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [12]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bank's capital lending scale increased slightly, with the daily net lending balance of state - owned and joint - stock banks rising from 2.81 trillion yuan to 3.27 trillion yuan, and that of money market funds decreasing from 2.13 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan [18]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bill interest rate changed little, with the 3M state - owned and joint - stock discount rate fluctuating slightly around 1%, and the six - month state - owned and joint - stock transfer discount rate rising from 1.04% to 1.09% [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of April 27, the central bank's open market operation balance was 10.3 trillion yuan, including 97.2 billion yuan in pledged repurchase balance, 5.1 trillion yuan in outright repurchase balance, and 4.657 trillion yuan in MLF balance. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 86.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 50.45 billion yuan of repurchase agreements matured [28]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From April 21 to April 25, 326 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 181.83 billion yuan; 191.123 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, including 75.066 billion yuan of new local bonds and 116.056 billion yuan of refinancing local bonds, with a net financing of 162.512 billion yuan. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, no treasury bonds will be issued, and 93.092 billion yuan of local bonds will be issued, with a net financing of 92.665 billion yuan [35]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From April 21 to April 25, the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, including - 131.83 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, the net payment of government bonds will be 121.08 billion yuan, all for local bonds [42]. 3.5 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, 749.6 billion yuan of CDs were issued, a month - on - month increase of 40 billion yuan; the net financing was - 19.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16.2 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 331.6 billion yuan of CDs matured, with significantly reduced maturity pressure. State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale. In terms of maturity types, 3M CDs had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 95%, with state - owned banks having the highest success rate of 99%, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs having a success rate of 95% [45]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, from April 21 to April 25, the issuance interest rates of CDs of various types of banks and different maturities basically remained at the previous week's level (changes within 1bp) [46]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, although the capital market became loose after being balanced, the primary market of CDs still needed to raise prices to attract demand, indicating a medium - and long - term liquidity gap in banks. The yields of CDs of various maturities in the secondary market changed little, with a change range of no more than 1bp. The CD yield curve showed a local inversion of 1bp at 9M and 1Y [66]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The excess reserve ratio in late March 2025 was estimated to be 1.05%. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market net injection was 86.4 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 94.413 billion yuan [73].