投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡小幅反弹。在政策利好的扶持下，2026 年宏观经济表现较强预期， 随着政策利好预期不断发酵，市场风险偏好将逐渐回升。随着股指回落至震荡区间下沿，中长期资金 配置意愿升温，对股指构成较强支撑。不过年内政策继续加码的动力不足，政策的发力点预计在明年 一季度，短期内资金面观望情绪仍存。总的来说，短期内股指上有压力，下有支撑，以区间震荡为主。 备注： 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has outlined key tasks and reform directions for the capital market, emphasizing the deepening of board reforms, the implementation of the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) reforms, and the introduction of new policies to enhance investor protection and market stability [3][4]. Group 1: Capital Market Reforms - The CSRC will initiate the deepening of GEM reforms, establishing listing standards that better align with the characteristics of innovative enterprises in emerging fields [5]. - Continuous promotion of the high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) and the establishment of a smooth connection mechanism between the third and fourth boards [7]. - The CSRC plans to introduce a refinancing shelf issuance system to strengthen the foundation of market stability and support mergers and acquisitions for listed companies [8]. Group 2: Investor Protection and Market Stability - The CSRC aims to enhance the role of long-term funds as stabilizers in the market, promoting public fund reforms and ensuring that pension and insurance funds are aligned with long-term investment strategies [9]. - The launch of the "Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) Optimization Work Plan" will improve access and operational efficiency for foreign investors, creating a more transparent and efficient investment environment [10]. - The release of the "Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium Investors in the Capital Market" includes 23 practical measures to enhance investor protection during the issuance and delisting processes [11]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Regulatory Enforcement - The revaluation of Chinese assets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, is becoming more apparent as stability and balance are prioritized in asset allocation [12]. - The CSRC emphasizes a "zero tolerance" approach to financial fraud and other illegal activities, aiming to enhance investor confidence through strict enforcement of regulations [13].

Core Insights - The Shanghai ETF market has shown significant vitality this year, with net inflows exceeding 430 billion yuan [1] - The market capitalization has increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, driven by long-term funds such as insurance, bank wealth management, corporate annuities, and social security funds [1] - Over 70% of the net inflows are from domestic sources, indicating strong local investor interest [1] Fund Flows - Net inflows into the Shanghai ETF market have surpassed 430 billion yuan this year [1] - Long-term funds contributed over 20% to the growth in market capitalization [1] - The primary focus of fund flows has been on major broad-based ETFs and Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the scale of broad-based ETFs in the Shanghai Stock Exchange has exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, with approximately 60 new broad-based ETFs launched this year [1] - The underlying indices of these ETFs include significant benchmarks such as the SSE 180, CSI A500, Sci-Tech Innovation Index, and Sci-Tech 50 [1] - Industry insiders believe that broad-based products in the Shanghai market demonstrate outstanding long-term investment performance, serving as an excellent tool for investors to allocate to core Chinese assets [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the asset management industry, particularly focusing on insurance asset management institutions and their increasing need for equity asset allocation in response to declining fixed income yields and regulatory changes aimed at promoting long-term investments [3][4][7]. Group 1: Insurance Asset Management Landscape - Regulatory bodies are promoting long-term investments, leading to a more favorable market environment for A-shares [3]. - The insurance asset management sector is facing a complex investment environment, with a pressing need to enhance equity asset allocation to improve client returns [3][4]. - The average yield on insurance funds has declined to 2.24% in 2023, remaining below 5% for three consecutive years, indicating challenges in generating returns [4][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies for Equity Assets - New accounting standards allow for a certain percentage of OCI to be allocated to the market, providing opportunities for long-term funds [7]. - Long-term stock investment trials using equity method accounting can smooth out stock price fluctuations, presenting new opportunities for insurance funds [8]. - The trial offers three policy advantages, including the ability to account for private fund profits and dividends, which can alleviate the impact of direct investments on financial statements [8]. Group 3: Enhancing Investment Capabilities - Insurance funds must refine their investment techniques to effectively manage long-term capital [9]. - Dynamic adjustments during the holding period are essential for achieving stable returns, as long-term holding is a strategy rather than an end goal [9]. - The probability of achieving positive returns over various holding periods (3, 5, and 10 years) is 60%, 75%, and 90%, respectively, indicating the importance of strategic timing [9]. Group 4: Company Profile - Huatai Asset Management - Huatai Asset Management has focused on third-party asset management since its establishment in 2005, aiming to be an excellent manager of long-term funds and a provider of high-quality assets [12]. - The company has maintained a strong performance in enterprise annuity management, with a cumulative return rate of 87.61% over the past decade [13]. - In the bond investment sector, Huatai ranks first in the industry with a market share of 12%, emphasizing green development initiatives [14]. - The company has a strong focus on equity investments in high-growth technology sectors, supporting the development of innovative enterprises [15].