全球经济增长正在变得越来越"昂贵"。对不少发展中经济体而言，问题不再是如何追求更高增速，而是 在债务压力、融资收紧和外部环境不确定性上升的背景下，是否仍有空间为未来投入资源。 在联合国的判断中，这种压力已经具有结构性特征。一方面，全球增长水平长期低于疫情前趋势；另一 方面，债务、贸易摩擦、就业和气候冲击正在同时挤压发展中国家的政策选择。这些问题彼此交织，使 得传统的短期刺激或临时性纾困难以奏效。 展望2026年，哪些风险值得关注？哪些政策有助于提升长期增长潜力和经济韧性？围绕这些话题，南方 财经近期在联合国总部专访了Navid Hanif。他现任联合国经济和社会事务部（UN DESA）主管经济发 展的助理秘书长，并担任联合国在二十国集团（G20）财政轨道和主轨道中的副协调代表，长期参与发 展融资、主权债务重组以及国际金融架构改革的政策讨论与协调工作。 四大因素影响经济增长 南方财经：联合国经济和社会事务部目前如何评估未来12个月的全球经济增长前景？对于发展中经济体 而言，哪些风险最为关键？例如债务波动以及贸易碎片化等问题。 Navid Hanif：总体来看，全球经济正在复苏，但复苏速度过慢，而且非常不均衡。我 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 在联合国的判断中，这种压力已经具有结构性特征。一方面，全球增长水平长期低于疫情前趋势；另一 方面，债务、贸易摩擦、就业和气候冲击正在同时挤压发展中国家的政策选择。这些问题彼此交织，使 得传统的短期刺激或临时性纾困难以奏效。 围绕上述议题，南方财经近期在联合国总部专访了Navid Hanif。他现任联合国经济和社会事务部（UN DESA）主管经济发展的助理秘书长，并担任联合国在二十国集团（G20）财政轨道和主轨道中的副协 调代表，长期参与发展融资、主权债务重组以及国际金融架构改革的政策讨论与协调工作。 在本次对话中，Hanif结合联合国最新评估，分析了未来全球经济增长面临的主要风险，解释了《塞维 利亚承诺》在发展融资和债务治理中的现实含义，并进一步讨论了在碎片化加剧的国际环境中，发展中 国家如何通过投资于人力资本、提升生产率和推进结构性转型，增强长期增长潜力与经济韧性。同时， 他也分享了联合国对国际合作前景以及中国在全球发展议程中作用的判断。 四大因素影响经济增长 南方财经：联合国经济和社会事务部目前如何评估未来12个月的全球经济增长前景？对于发展中经济体 而言，哪些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Cape Town is addressing the challenges of differentiated growth, inflation pressures, and debt restructuring, with significant implications for global economic stability [3]. Group 1: Meeting Background and Strategic Significance - The G20 represents 85% of global GDP and 80% of trade, making its policy coordination crucial for global economic stability [3]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the G20 has taken actions such as crisis response, coordinated monetary policies, and debt relief initiatives to mitigate systemic risks [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Landscape Analysis - The global economy is experiencing a "three-speed" growth pattern, with widening growth disparities among developed economies, emerging markets, and vulnerable countries [4]. - Economic growth forecasts for 2024 show varied rates: - Developed economies: - USA: 2.8% driven by service sector resilience and AI investments [4] - Eurozone: 0.4% influenced by falling energy prices [4] - Japan: 1.2% due to yen depreciation boosting exports [4] - Emerging markets: - India: 5.6% supported by infrastructure investment and digital payments [4] - Brazil: 1.4% with iron ore export recovery [4] - Southeast Asia: 4.1% from the shift in electronic manufacturing [4] - Vulnerable economies: - Sub-Saharan Africa: 3.0% driven by mineral development investments [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Divergence - Major central banks are exhibiting divergent policy stances, leading to increased market volatility [5]. - The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate of 5.5% while accelerating balance sheet reduction, impacting global liquidity [6]. - The European Central Bank has initiated a rate cut cycle while engaging in quantitative tightening [6]. - Japan has exited negative interest rates, raising its policy rate to 0.1% [6]. Group 4: Key Issues and Potential Breakthroughs - The meeting will focus on global trade rule restructuring, particularly regarding digital taxes and supply chain security [6]. - There are ongoing disputes over digital service taxes, with the EU proposing a 7% global minimum tax on large tech firms [6]. - The potential for a multilateral agreement on mineral supply chain security is being discussed, given China's dominance in rare earth processing [6]. Group 5: Debt Restructuring Mechanisms - The meeting may lead to innovative approaches to debt restructuring, addressing the rising debt-to-GDP ratios in various countries [7]. - The U.S. has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 132%, Japan at 263%, and Italy at 152% [6]. Group 6: Market Impact Projections - If consensus on currency intervention is reached, the U.S. dollar index may decline from 104 to 100, enhancing arbitrage opportunities for emerging market currencies [13]. - A successful sovereign debt restructuring could lead to a rebound in bond prices for defaulting nations [13]. - The establishment of a unified green finance standard could direct over $500 billion annually towards renewable energy infrastructure [13].