格隆汇2月23日｜据外媒，英国政府正在制定一项战略，以保护炼油厂免受不断上涨的碳成本的影响。 此前，已有两家炼油厂关闭。政府正考虑将炼油行业纳入英国的碳边境调节机制。该机制将对进口的、 环保标准较低的商品征收费用。由于碳成本上升，英国已有两家炼油厂在过去18个月内关闭，埃克森美 孚公司警告称，如果碳成本持续上升，该行业最终可能完全消失。 ...

Core Viewpoint - ArcelorMittal reported a 1.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for 2025, amounting to $61.4 billion, primarily due to falling steel prices and weak European demand [2] Financial Performance - The average global steel price decreased by 2.3%, leading to a 7.3% drop in EBITDA to $6.54 billion [2] - Adjusted net profit increased by 26.3% year-on-year to $2.938 billion, with adjusted earnings per share rising to $3.85 from $2.95 in 2024 [2] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its prospects for 2026, planning to increase capital expenditures to $4.5-5 billion, up from $4.3 billion in 2025 [2] - A dividend of $0.60 per share will be distributed to shareholders, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year's $0.55 [2] Market Context - The CEO highlighted that trade wars and tariffs, particularly in Europe through the carbon border adjustment mechanism, are expected to benefit domestic steel production and demand [2]

欧盟正着手重新调整其全球最严格的碳市场规则，拟放宽对数以千计企业的减排要求。此举标志着该地 区在气候雄心与经济现实之间寻求新的平衡。 在下周欧盟领导人聚焦经济竞争力峰会前夕，有关改革排放交易体系（ETS）的讨论正迅速升温。据媒 体援引熟悉内情的欧盟政策制定者与外交官，距离上次为加速绿色转型而收紧该市场尚不足三年，各国 政府现已准备放慢减排步伐，并考虑推出一系列措施以缓解工业成本压力。 计划中的改革细节预计将由欧盟委员会于今年第三季度公布，其内容将直接影响碳配额供需，并可能在 成员国间引发激烈谈判。斯洛伐克总理罗伯特·菲佐已公开呼吁暂停ETS，捷克总理安德烈·巴比什则敦 促采取措施抑制碳价波动。市场对此已作出反应，周四欧盟碳期货价格下跌4.6%，跌至去年11月10日 以来的最低水平。 这一调整反映出欧盟在维持气候领导地位的同时，正试图为本土工业创造更具韧性的竞争环境。马德里 西班牙对外银行碳市场主管英戈·拉明对此评论称： "欧盟的叙事已经转变，从设定雄心勃勃的目标转向关注实施与执行，从理想主义转向务实 主义。" 政策优先级转变 随着欧盟重新评估与美国的长期伙伴关系，其雄心勃勃的绿色转型在政治议程上的优先级已经下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has transitioned from the design phase to strict implementation, with significant implications for global trade and carbon emissions regulations [1][2]. Group 1: CBAM Implementation Details - The CBAM has tightened its regulations in three significant ways: the default value mechanism will now serve as a punitive threshold, requiring verified emissions data from companies starting in 2026 [2] - The CBAM's collection intensity will align with the reduction of free emission allowances within the EU, starting with a 2.5% collection rate in 2026 and aiming for 100% by 2034 [2] - After the transition period, companies will no longer be able to self-report emissions data; all compliance data must be verified by EU-recognized third parties [2] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Industries - China, as a major manufacturing and trading nation, faces dual pressures from the CBAM: increased export costs for carbon-intensive products like steel and aluminum, and heightened demands for green transformation [3] - The CBAM recognizes carbon costs already paid by imported products, allowing exporting countries to offset domestic carbon costs through carbon taxes or inclusion in carbon markets [3] Group 3: Challenges for China's Carbon Market - The clarity of the carbon market construction path is insufficient, leading to weakened confidence among market participants; currently, only the power sector is included, with other high-emission industries lacking clear timelines for inclusion [4] - Significant differences in emission reduction costs and potential among industries could lead to unfair allocation of allowances and volatile carbon prices, particularly if high-emission sectors are included prematurely [5] - The uncertainty surrounding international carbon border adjustment policies complicates the external environment for China's carbon market [5][6] Group 4: Recommendations for China's Carbon Market - To effectively respond to the CBAM, China should expand the carbon market's coverage and enhance policy transparency, including the inclusion of high-carbon industries like steel and cement [7] - A proactive approach to the global trend of carbon tariffs is necessary, including establishing a tracking and assessment mechanism for major economies' carbon tariff policies [8] - China should actively participate in shaping international carbon market rules and pricing frameworks to ensure fair treatment of its industries [9] - The carbon market's revenue distribution mechanism should be designed to support low-carbon transitions in high-emission industries, directing auction revenues towards technology upgrades and clean energy initiatives [10]

Core Insights - The India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is described as the largest in history, reshaping trade dynamics and creating new opportunities in the global energy and chemical sectors [1][2] - The agreement covers 2 billion people and accounts for 25% of the global economy, addressing US tariff threats while adjusting tariffs and market access rules [1] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - India will gradually eliminate or reduce tariffs on 22% of EU chemical products, enhancing the competitiveness of EU high-end chemical materials in the Indian market [1] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to significantly boost the price competitiveness of EU chemical products, meeting the demand for high-end materials in India's manufacturing sector [1][2] Group 2: Export Opportunities for India - The EU has committed to gradually eliminate or reduce tariffs on 99.5% of Indian goods over seven years, opening up export channels for India's traditional chemical products [2] - India's capacity advantages in basic chemical raw materials and pesticide intermediates will allow it to gain price advantages in the EU market, leading to increased market share and job creation [2] Group 3: Green Trade Barriers - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective from January 1, imposes carbon costs on high-emission products, impacting India's energy and chemical sectors [2] - Indian fertilizer and chemical industries, heavily reliant on coal and fossil fuels, face additional costs of approximately $290 per ton when exporting to the EU, which may weaken their competitiveness [2] - The existence of carbon border taxes is pushing Indian energy and chemical companies to invest more in green technology and clean energy alternatives [2] Group 4: Overall Impact - The implementation of the India-EU FTA presents new development opportunities for the global energy and chemical industries while raising the bar for green development [2]

Economic Impact - The India-EU free trade agreement is described as the most comprehensive trade liberalization agreement ever signed by India, covering 25% of global GDP and one-third of global trade volume [3] - The agreement will eliminate or reduce tariffs on over 90% of EU goods exports, saving up to €4 billion annually in tariff costs, while over 99% of Indian exports will gain preferential access to the EU market [4] - Specific tariff reductions include a decrease in Indian automobile tariffs from 110% to 10% with a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year, and the near elimination of tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [4] Geopolitical Implications - The agreement is expected to alter the geopolitical landscape in Asia, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, despite not directly mentioning China [5] - India becomes the third Asian country, after Japan and South Korea, to sign a security and defense partnership with the EU, indicating a strengthening of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific [6] - The language in the agreement regarding a "rules-based international order" and a "free and open Indo-Pacific" subtly contrasts with China's regional cooperation narrative [6] Strategic Negotiations - Indian Prime Minister Modi demonstrated a pragmatic approach during negotiations, balancing market openness with protection for key industries, such as setting quotas for the domestic automobile industry while lowering tariffs [7] - In agriculture, India successfully excluded sensitive products like dairy and grains from market liberalization, showcasing its negotiation strength [8] Comparative Analysis - The breadth of the India-EU agreement surpasses those established by Japan and South Korea, as it encompasses both traditional and non-traditional security areas [9] - The trade complementarity between India and the EU is stronger than that between the EU and Japan or South Korea, with India offering a large consumer market and labor force, while the EU provides advanced technology, capital, and industrial goods [10] - The direct interests in the Indian Ocean region suggest that India-EU cooperation may be more profound and practical compared to EU relations with Japan and South Korea [11] Future Developments - Following the agreement, a series of follow-up actions will commence, including the first round of India-EU security and defense dialogues within a month, and potential Indian participation in EU defense projects [12] - The establishment of an "India-EU Defense Industry Forum" aims to enhance collaboration between military enterprises, alongside deepening cooperation in emerging fields like artificial intelligence and clean technology [12] - The agreement includes provisions to address the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism, providing more certainty for Indian products entering the EU market [13] - If implemented smoothly, the agreement will create a free trade area covering approximately 2 billion people, fundamentally transforming economic ties across Eurasia [14] - The potential for EU companies to manufacture automobiles in India and for Indian IT professionals to access European markets indicates a forthcoming restructuring of global supply chains [15]

记者丨 赖镇桃 编辑丨李莹亮 （资料图） 面对美国掀起的关税风暴，欧盟和印度决定"抱团取暖"。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月27日， 印欧领导人在新德里举行会晤。印度总理莫迪宣布，印度和 欧盟达成自由贸易协定，并表示该协议覆盖全球GDP的25%和全球贸易额的三分之一。 双方都对自贸协定给予了极高的定调。欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇称，这项协 定将创建一个覆盖20亿人口的自由贸易区，是"有史以来最大的贸易协定"。印度和欧盟都形 容，这份协定是"所有协定之母"。 欧盟委员会称，欧盟超过90%的商品出口关税将被取消或降低，印度给予欧盟的关税减免将大 幅改善欧盟出口产品的市场准入。例如，高达110%的汽车关税将逐步降至10%，44%的机械 关税、22%的化学品关税和11%的药品关税也将基本取消。 很长时间以来，印度有强烈的保护主义倾向，为保护本土产业将不少国际品牌拒之门外，尤其 是汽车产业，基本是塔塔汽车、马恒达这些本土车企的天下。连马斯克一直和印度拉扯也打不 下来的汽车关税，如今印度却难得对欧盟松口，这种转变为何发生？ 这份"史上最大贸易协 定"，可在多大程度抵御美国关税的逆风？ 关税阴影下的自贸协定 "我是 ...

Core Insights - South Korea's export market share is significantly declining compared to countries like China, Vietnam, and India, despite projections of exceeding $700 billion in exports by 2025, marking a historical high [1] - The structural polarization of export categories is worsening, indicating a gradual degradation of export competitiveness in the medium to long term [1] - The semiconductor sector is expected to see growth in 2026 due to a favorable cycle, but non-IT categories are likely to continue underperforming, exacerbating the polarization [1] Group 1: Export Competitiveness - South Korea's export competitiveness is deteriorating, with a notable decline in market share in key sectors such as steel and machinery [1] - The implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 may further weaken the competitiveness of South Korean firms in the European market due to increased trade costs [1] - The automotive industry is facing declining competitiveness as rivals expand overseas production, with South Korea's market share in the U.S. dropping by 0.4% from 2018 to 2024, while Mexico's increased by 4.2% [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - South Korea maintains a technological edge in semiconductors by rapidly developing high-bandwidth memory and other high-value products, leading competitors by approximately one year in mass production of the latest generation storage chips [2] - Recent competition from China and Southeast Asia has weakened South Korea's market position, posing a risk to its semiconductor industry [2] - Unlike the previous semiconductor boom in 2017-2018, China has enhanced its mass production capabilities, replacing some imports of generic products [2]

这笔交易对渤化集团这样的用电大户来说意义重大。天津渤化碳资产管理有限公司副总经理程晖表示， 企业此次采购的绿电约占年用电量的相当比例。随着欧盟碳边境调节机制等国际规则的实施，绿电已成 为外向型企业提升国际竞争力的必备选项。作为绿色石化产业链"链主"企业，渤化集团需为天津保税区 及经开区的国家级零碳园区建设发挥作用。"今年集团的全年交易电量达44.5亿千瓦时，目前通过中长 期交易采购绿电24.34亿千瓦时，甘肃地区达21.3亿千瓦时，绿电采购已成为企业应对碳市场约束和客户 碳足迹要求的刚性需求。"程晖说道。 新年伊始，天津迎来了一份特殊的"新年礼物"。来自甘肃的24.8亿千瓦时绿电跨越千里，通过刚刚签约 的4年期交易协议，为2026年的天津能源市场注入了首批绿色动能。 为确保西北清洁能源顺利抵达渤海之滨，电网基础设施建设正全速推进。大同-天津南特高压工程作为 绿电输送的"主动脉"，建成后将大幅提升跨区域送电能力，为外电入津提供坚实保障。 据测算，这批24.8亿千瓦时绿电将在未来四年内帮助天津减少二氧化碳排放超百万吨。随着更多跨省绿 电交易陆续落地，天津正以实际行动书写绿色答卷，通过市场化机制创新与电网基础设施升 ...

Group 1 - A fire in a bar in Crans-Montana, Valais, Switzerland, has resulted in approximately 40 deaths and 115 injuries, with many in serious condition [9] - The Chinese Embassy in Switzerland has confirmed that there are currently no reports of Chinese citizens among the casualties [9] Group 2 - The U.S. has implemented a new 1% tax on certain cross-border remittances, effective January 1, 2026, as part of a broader tax and spending bill [8] - This tax applies to overseas remitters, including U.S. citizens and residents, and requires remittance service providers to collect and report the tax [8] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed willingness to cooperate with the EU on climate change but will take necessary measures against unfair trade restrictions related to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [4] - The ministry criticized the EU for imposing its carbon standards on developing countries, which could increase the costs of climate action for these nations [4] Group 4 - In the automotive sector, several companies reported their December 2025 sales figures, with BYD selling 420,398 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decline of approximately 18.2%, while total sales for the year reached 4,602,436 units, a growth of 7.73% [9][10] - Other companies like Geely, Chery, and NIO also reported significant sales figures, with NIO achieving a record high of 48,135 new car deliveries in December, marking a 54.6% year-on-year increase [12][13] Group 5 - Xiaomi's automotive division reported over 50,000 vehicle deliveries in December 2025, marking its first month surpassing this threshold, with total deliveries for the year exceeding 350,000 [12] - The overall automotive market is showing a clear trend towards new energy and smart vehicles, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and industry focus [14] Group 6 - The retail sector saw significant growth, with the Pang Dong Lai Group reporting sales exceeding 235.31 billion yuan for 2025, surpassing its previous year's target by 35 billion yuan [18] - This indicates strong market expansion capabilities and growth momentum within the retail industry [18] Group 7 - In the technology sector, the launch of the second-generation integrated embodied brain system by Zhiyuan represents a significant innovation in artificial intelligence, focusing on high-level semantic reasoning and fine control [15] - This development could lead to advancements in robotic intelligence and control paradigms [16] Group 8 - Neuralink, led by Elon Musk, plans to begin large-scale production of brain-machine interface devices in 2026, aiming for a more streamlined and automated surgical process [20] - This technological breakthrough could have profound implications for the integration of medical and AI technologies [20]