南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 在联合国的判断中，这种压力已经具有结构性特征。一方面，全球增长水平长期低于疫情前趋势；另一 方面，债务、贸易摩擦、就业和气候冲击正在同时挤压发展中国家的政策选择。这些问题彼此交织，使 得传统的短期刺激或临时性纾困难以奏效。 围绕上述议题，南方财经近期在联合国总部专访了Navid Hanif。他现任联合国经济和社会事务部（UN DESA）主管经济发展的助理秘书长，并担任联合国在二十国集团（G20）财政轨道和主轨道中的副协 调代表，长期参与发展融资、主权债务重组以及国际金融架构改革的政策讨论与协调工作。 在本次对话中，Hanif结合联合国最新评估，分析了未来全球经济增长面临的主要风险，解释了《塞维 利亚承诺》在发展融资和债务治理中的现实含义，并进一步讨论了在碎片化加剧的国际环境中，发展中 国家如何通过投资于人力资本、提升生产率和推进结构性转型，增强长期增长潜力与经济韧性。同时， 他也分享了联合国对国际合作前景以及中国在全球发展议程中作用的判断。 四大因素影响经济增长 南方财经：联合国经济和社会事务部目前如何评估未来12个月的全球经济增长前景？对于发展中经济体 而言，哪些 ...

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that the global economy is in a state of "fragile resilience" for 2024-2025, characterized by superficial stability but underlying weaknesses and accumulating risks [1] - Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] Demand-Side Weakness - Global demand is weak, with sluggish domestic spending and consumer purchasing power under pressure, particularly due to high interest rates that suppress economic activity and domestic demand [1] - The inability of demand to spontaneously recover is identified as a primary reason for the lack of internal momentum in growth [1] Investment Weakness - There is a notable lack of investment momentum, particularly in private investment and fixed capital formation, leading to delayed capital expenditures by businesses due to high financing costs and uncertain profit outlooks [1] - The absence of investment sources to drive the next growth cycle is eroding long-term growth potential [1] Economic Outlook and Uncertainties - The global economic outlook is skewed towards a downward trend, with multiple uncertainties affecting recovery, including sustained high interest rates that increase financing costs for businesses and governments [2] - Trade policy uncertainties remain at historically high levels, impacting corporate investment and contributing to a slowdown in global trade [2] Systemic Risks and Climate Impact - Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and regional supply chain restructuring are expected to exacerbate systemic risks by 2025 [3] - Climate-related extreme events are increasing in developing countries, leading to disruptions in food prices and supply chains, which in turn strain public investment [3] Debt Risks - Developing countries face significant debt risks, with 35 out of 68 low-income countries either in or at high risk of debt distress, which could lead to long-term output declines and increased borrowing costs [3] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests major policy shifts to stabilize macroeconomic and financial conditions, including avoiding overly tight monetary policies and expanding fiscal space [4] - It emphasizes the need for a restructured global financial architecture to lower financing costs and enhance funding access for developing countries [4] - A trade system centered on development is recommended to reduce uncertainties and strengthen multilateral cooperation [4] - Addressing climate and debt risks through expanded climate financing and debt architecture reforms is crucial [4] - Coordination among trade and financial policies is essential to effectively respond to systemic downward risks [4]

Core Insights - The report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development emphasizes the need for systemic reform of the international financial system to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually for climate financing, particularly for developing countries [2][4] Financing Needs and Current Gaps - Despite achieving the $100 billion climate financing commitment in 2022, there remains a significant gap compared to the $1.3 trillion target set for 2024, indicating that the current financing is insufficient to meet the needs of developing countries [2][3] - Adaptation funding, a crucial component of climate financing, constituted only 28% of climate financing from developed to developing countries in 2022, and dropped to approximately 3.4% in 2023, highlighting the challenges in attracting private capital for adaptation efforts [2][3] Structural Issues in Financial Architecture - The report identifies structural limitations in the international financial architecture as a barrier to developing countries accessing necessary funds for climate action, including high capital costs, unsustainable debt, and complex financing procedures [3][4] - Developing countries often lack central bank swap lines and rely on institutions like the International Monetary Fund, which come with stringent macroeconomic conditions, exacerbating their financial vulnerabilities [3][4] Recommendations for Reform - To achieve the $1.3 trillion climate financing goal by 2035, the report advocates for comprehensive reforms in the international financial architecture, focusing on enhancing financial stability, expanding climate and development financing, and improving global financial governance equity [4][5] - The report suggests increasing public international financing, promoting non-debt financing options, and reforming multilateral development banks to better support climate and green structural transitions [5] - It also calls for a more equitable governance structure in institutions like the IMF and World Bank, enhancing the representation of developing countries in decision-making processes [4][5]

Core Insights - The report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development emphasizes the need for systemic reform of the international financial system to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually for climate financing, particularly for developing countries [1][4] Financing Needs and Current Status - The report highlights that the commitment to mobilize $100 billion in 2022 does not meet the climate financing needs of developing countries, which are significantly below the $1.3 trillion target set for 2024 [1] - Adaptation funding, crucial for climate financing, constituted only 28% of climate financing from developed to developing countries in 2022, and dropped to approximately 3.4% in 2023, indicating a lack of private capital attraction [1] Challenges in Fund Distribution - The "loss and damage" fund initiated at COP28 has seen limited commitments and disbursements, with a distribution system still under development, leading to a mismatch between actual needs and available funds [2] - The most vulnerable countries received only about 18% of external climate financing in 2022, with small island developing states receiving merely 2.8% [2] Structural Limitations of Financial Architecture - The report identifies structural limitations in the international financial architecture as a barrier to climate financing, including high capital costs, unsustainable debt, limited fiscal space, and complex financing procedures [3] - Developing countries face high borrowing costs and currency risks due to a lack of central bank swap lines, which limits their ability to invest in climate transition [3] Recommendations for Reform - To achieve the $1.3 trillion climate financing goal by 2035, systemic and structural reforms of the international financial architecture are necessary, focusing on financial stability, climate and development financing, and equitable global financial governance [4] - The report advocates for a more equitable international financial safety net, increased public international financing, and reforms in multilateral development banks to better support climate and green transitions [5] - It also calls for a re-evaluation of sovereign debt restructuring mechanisms to view climate and development investments as "rational expenditures" rather than "debt risks," aiming for sustainable financing sources for developing countries [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the dialogue is the commitment to enhance practical cooperation in the economic and financial sectors between China and Russia, reaffirming the importance of the China-Russia finance ministers' dialogue mechanism [1] - Both parties agreed to maintain macroeconomic policy coordination to support the development and revitalization of their economies, with the next dialogue scheduled for 2026 in Russia [1] - There is a focus on strengthening cooperation in taxation and finance, including banking, securities, and insurance sectors, as well as enhancing audit supervision and cross-border law enforcement cooperation [1] Group 2 - The dialogue emphasizes the importance of multilateral frameworks such as the G20, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and APEC for coordinating efforts to mitigate risks arising from geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation [1] - Both parties expressed a commitment to deepen cooperation within multilateral development banks, advocating for the principles of multilateralism and non-politicization to mobilize more resources for developing countries [2] - Support was voiced for the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to expand their roles and enhance local currency financing, thereby increasing their influence in the global financial landscape [2]

Core Points - China emphasizes the importance of the partnership between the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU) as a significant pillar of the international system, crucial for promoting peace, security, and development in Africa [1][2] - The international community is urged to respect the sovereignty and leadership of African nations, avoiding external interference and unilateral sanctions, to create a conducive environment for conflict resolution [1] - There is a call for traditional aid providers to increase their investments and for the international community to enhance support in technology and information to help Africa build its autonomous capabilities [1] - Support is needed for African countries to explore modernization paths suitable to their national conditions, addressing poverty and the root causes of violence and conflict [1] - Developed countries are urged to fulfill their commitments to development aid and climate financing, and to stop withdrawing investments and shifting blame [1] - The need for reform in the international financial architecture is highlighted to better reflect changes in the global economic landscape [1] - Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and big data should be shared equitably to inject strong momentum into Africa's economic growth [1][2] Summary by Sections UN and AU Cooperation - China supports strengthening cooperation between the UN and AU, aligning with the common interests of Africa and the international community [1] Conflict Resolution - The UN and Security Council are encouraged to support AU and regional organizations in mediating and resolving African issues through African methods [1] Development Support - The international community should assist African nations in building their capabilities and addressing poverty and conflict root causes [1] Role of Developed Countries - Developed nations are called upon to honor their aid commitments and to cease practices that undermine African development [1] Financial and Technological Reform - There is a push for reforming the international financial system and ensuring equitable access to emerging technologies for Africa's growth [1]