南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 在联合国的判断中，这种压力已经具有结构性特征。一方面，全球增长水平长期低于疫情前趋势；另一 方面，债务、贸易摩擦、就业和气候冲击正在同时挤压发展中国家的政策选择。这些问题彼此交织，使 得传统的短期刺激或临时性纾困难以奏效。 围绕上述议题，南方财经近期在联合国总部专访了Navid Hanif。他现任联合国经济和社会事务部（UN DESA）主管经济发展的助理秘书长，并担任联合国在二十国集团（G20）财政轨道和主轨道中的副协 调代表，长期参与发展融资、主权债务重组以及国际金融架构改革的政策讨论与协调工作。 在本次对话中，Hanif结合联合国最新评估，分析了未来全球经济增长面临的主要风险，解释了《塞维 利亚承诺》在发展融资和债务治理中的现实含义，并进一步讨论了在碎片化加剧的国际环境中，发展中 国家如何通过投资于人力资本、提升生产率和推进结构性转型，增强长期增长潜力与经济韧性。同时， 他也分享了联合国对国际合作前景以及中国在全球发展议程中作用的判断。 四大因素影响经济增长 南方财经：联合国经济和社会事务部目前如何评估未来12个月的全球经济增长前景？对于发展中经济体 而言，哪些 ...

美国作家马克·吐温有句妙语：历史不会重演，但总会押韵。如今，随着欧洲各国承诺将国防开支提高 至国内生产总值（GDP）的5%，我们是否正在重演20世纪30年代的情景——当年西方列强正是依靠国 防支出走出大萧条？ 两次世界大战之间的时期，世界由西方列强（包括日本）主导，世界上其他大部分地区仍处于殖民统治 之下。第一次世界大战并未化解欧洲列强之间的旧怨，德国因战争赔款而愤懑不平，并因此引发了摧毁 德国社会的恶性通货膨胀。20世纪20年代的"咆哮年代"以1929年的股市崩盘告终，30年代则成为全球经 济停滞的年代。1934年，富兰克林·罗斯福总统以"新政"复兴美国经济的承诺当选。而在日本与德国， 军国主义背景下的右翼势力开始崛起。1934年，希特勒打着纳粹民族主义的旗号上台，宣称要重振德 国，并为一战的耻辱与失去的领土复仇。德国的军费开支从1933年占GDP的1%-2%，上升到1936年的 13%，到1945年几乎达到GDP的100%。日本的军费则从GDP占比的3%-4%，上升到1937年-1938年的 9%-10%。美国的反应较慢，1930年-1938年间军费平均开支仅占GDP的1%-2%，但到1945年已经迅速攀 ...

当地时间11月23日，联合国工业发展组织(工发组织)第二十一届大会暨2025年全球产业峰会在沙特阿拉 伯首都利雅得阿卜杜勒阿齐兹国王国际会议中心开幕，来自全球政产学界、金融机构、民间社会和国际 组织的5000余名代表与会。开幕当天，穆勒获工发组织173个成员国一致支持，成功连任总干事，开启 第二个四年任期。 穆勒在开幕致辞中呼吁发达国家为消除不平等现象做出更多努力。他指出，尽管国际目标要求发达国家 将国民总收入0.7%用于政府开发援助，但达成目标者寥寥无几，近年来发展合作和人道主义援助资金 还面临大幅削减，富裕国家和工业化国家必须承担起相应的全球责任。穆勒倡议推动发展中国家更好接 入全球金融体系，并享有更广泛的零关税市场准入。 中国商务部部长助理袁晓明率中国政府代表团出席开幕式并发言。他强调，中方愿与工发组织和各方一 道，坚持多边主义，共同落实四大全球倡议，推动构建和维护公平正义、开放包容的国际经济秩序；坚 持合作共赢，发挥各自优势，促进发展中国家加快工业化发展，提升内生发展能力；坚持与时俱进，挖 掘可再生能源、人工智能等新兴领域合作潜能，帮助发展中国家抢抓数字绿色工业发展新机遇。 大会是工发组织的最高决策机 ...

Core Points - The event held by the China Enterprises Association in the Netherlands celebrated its 20th anniversary, highlighting the achievements in economic and trade cooperation between China and the Netherlands, with over 200 attendees from both countries [1] - China is the largest trading partner for the Netherlands outside the EU, while the Netherlands is China's second-largest trading partner within the EU, indicating a strong bilateral trade relationship [1] - The recent "14th Five-Year Plan" proposed by China is seen as a new opportunity for Sino-Dutch economic cooperation, emphasizing mutual benefits and high-level openness [2] Economic Cooperation - The Netherlands is recognized as a key destination for Chinese investment and a significant source of investment for China, with both countries collaborating on major international issues such as climate change and sustainable development [1] - There are complementary advantages in various sectors including green energy, clean technology, life sciences, smart manufacturing, digital economy, agriculture, and logistics, suggesting a broad potential for future cooperation [2] - The China Enterprises Association in the Netherlands aims to enhance communication and cooperation between businesses and the government, providing better services for investors [2][3] Challenges and Recommendations - The evolving global economic landscape presents challenges for Sino-Dutch trade, with calls for maintaining economic influence and balance in decision-making [3] - Emphasis on the necessity of Sino-European cooperation, with suggestions to adhere to market rules, ensure mutual benefits, and leverage the role of the China Enterprises Association to improve service networks [3]

Group 1 - China's total electricity consumption in October increased by 10.4% year-on-year [2] - From January to October, the national online retail sales grew by 9.6% year-on-year [2] - Revenue of traditional Chinese brands is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2024, with overseas revenue surpassing 50 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The number of captive giant pandas in China has reached 808 [2] - China has become the largest contributor to global sustainable development goal-related papers [2] Group 3 - The 15th National Games have set 8 world records, 5 world youth records, 13 Asian records, and 10 Asian youth records, showcasing China's achievements in competitive sports [2][18]

Core Insights - The United Nations report indicates that over 80% of the global population now lives in urban areas, a significant increase from 55% in 2018, highlighting the importance of sustainable urban environments for health and the planet [1][2] Group 1: Urbanization Statistics - The report establishes new criteria for defining urban areas, requiring a minimum population of 50,000 and a density of at least 1,500 people per square kilometer [1] - Current estimates show that 45% of the global population lives in cities, with 36% in towns, leading to a total of 81% urban residents [2] - Projections suggest that by 2050, 83% of the global population will reside in urban areas, with rural populations peaking in the 2040s before declining [2] Group 2: Drivers of Urbanization - Urbanization drivers vary by region: in East and South Asia, it is primarily due to rural-to-urban migration for education and job opportunities; in Europe and North America, international migration plays a larger role; while in sub-Saharan Africa, higher birth rates in cities contribute to growth [2] Group 3: Environmental and Health Impacts - Urban expansion can lead to increased carbon emissions if public transport is poorly planned, while effective planning can result in more energy-efficient transportation systems [3] - Urban residents face health risks from air pollution and extreme temperatures, but cities also provide better access to healthcare and social opportunities [3] - The report emphasizes the need to enhance urban livability through increased green spaces to improve health outcomes [3]

Core Points - The 2025 G20 Business Summit is held in Johannesburg, South Africa, focusing on "Inclusive Growth and Shared Prosperity through Global Cooperation" [1][2] - South Africa, as the first African country to host a G20 summit, highlights Africa's influence in international affairs [2] - The summit emphasizes trade and investment, digital transformation, energy transition, industrialization and innovation, employment, and education [2] Group 1 - The G20 economies contribute over 80% of global GDP and over 90% of employment [2] - The summit aims to promote inclusive economic growth through coordination and cooperation among G20 member countries [2] - The World Bank Group's International Finance Corporation highlights the challenges and potential in global development cooperation, urging G20 members to refocus on development issues [2] Group 2 - The summit serves as a platform for global dialogue, cross-sector collaboration, and shared learning among business leaders from G20 countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The United Nations is at a pivotal moment in its 80-year history, facing new challenges in global governance and emphasizing the importance of multilateralism and cooperation among nations [1][4]. Group 1: Global Governance Initiative - China has proposed a Global Governance Initiative that emphasizes five core principles: sovereign equality, adherence to international law, multilateralism, a people-centered approach, and action-oriented strategies [2]. - The initiative is seen as a significant contribution to global governance, aiming to address the current governance deficit and promote the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda [2][4]. - The initiative seeks to create a forward-looking framework that amplifies the voices of developing countries and fosters consensus on technology development and human welfare [2][3]. Group 2: China's Role in Global Governance - China is recognized as a crucial partner in global governance, contributing significantly to areas such as South-South cooperation, sustainable development, poverty alleviation, and food security [3]. - The success of China in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty is highlighted as a remarkable achievement that provides valuable experience for global poverty reduction efforts [3]. - The collaboration between the UN and China is progressing well, focusing on inclusive development, renewable energy, and green development initiatives [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Multilateralism - Current global crises, including climate change, conflict, and deep poverty, necessitate international solidarity to ensure no one is left behind [4]. - Multilateralism is viewed as essential for addressing global challenges, with China being a strong advocate for this approach and a supporter of the UN's future commitments [4]. - The UN's greatest achievement is institutionalizing multilateral cooperation, providing a platform for dialogue despite differences among nations [4][5].

Global Investment Trends - Global investment conditions remain sluggish in the first half of 2025, with foreign direct investment (FDI) declining by 3%, marking the third consecutive year of decline [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and companies reassessing supply chain risks contribute to cautious investment sentiment [1][2] Greenfield Investment - Greenfield investment, a key indicator of new capital expenditure and future production capacity, has seen a significant decline, with a 17% drop in global projects [2] - Developed and developing countries experienced declines of 20% and 12% respectively, contrasting with the recovery period from 2023 to 2024 [2] - Manufacturing greenfield projects decreased by 26%, particularly in sectors related to global supply chains such as electronics, machinery, automotive, and textiles [2] International Project Financing - International project financing, primarily in infrastructure sectors like energy and transportation, has sharply decreased due to high interest rates and rising geopolitical risks [3] - Renewable energy projects saw a 9% decline, while other electricity projects experienced a 38% drop in project numbers and a 52% decrease in investment amounts [3] - Domestic project financing has increased by 39% in number and 29% in amount, indicating a shift as local capital attempts to fill the gap left by international capital withdrawal [3] Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions - Cross-border M&A activity has significantly decreased, with total deal value dropping from $448 billion in 2024 to $172 billion in 2025 [4] - The U.S. and U.K. saw declines of 33% and 59% respectively, with overall European M&A activity down by approximately 1% [4] - There is an increase in divestitures and withdrawals, leading to instability in M&A activities in developing countries [4] Sustainable Development Goals Impact - The weak international investment climate negatively affects the achievement of sustainable development goals, with related project numbers declining by 10% and investment amounts down by 7% [4] - This trend indicates a reduction in both the number of projects and the average size of individual projects, further weakening capital formation capabilities in developing countries [4] Future Investment Landscape - The global investment landscape is expected to become more "regionalized" and "friend-shored," with investments favoring politically friendly countries [5] - Manufacturing related to supply chains will continue to face pressure, with developed countries likely to repatriate critical manufacturing processes [5] - Digital economy and artificial intelligence are projected to be the only bright spots for global investment growth, driven by strategic emphasis on AI and semiconductor development [5]

Global Investment Trends - Global investment conditions remain sluggish in the first half of 2025, with foreign direct investment (FDI) declining by 3%, marking the third consecutive year of decline [1][2] - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and companies reassessing supply chain risks contribute to cautious investment sentiment [1][2] Types of International Investment - Greenfield investments, a key indicator of new capital expenditure and future production capacity, have significantly decreased, with a 17% drop in global projects [2] - Developed countries experienced a 20% decline in greenfield investments, while developing countries saw a 12% decrease [2] - Manufacturing greenfield projects faced the most significant decline, with a 26% reduction, particularly in sectors related to global supply chains such as electronics, machinery, automotive, and textiles [2] International Project Financing - International project financing, primarily in infrastructure sectors like energy and transportation, has sharply declined due to high global interest rates and increased geopolitical risks [3] - Renewable energy projects saw a 9% decrease, while other electricity projects experienced a 38% drop in project numbers and a 52% decline in investment amounts [3] - Domestic project financing has increased by 39% in number and 29% in amount, indicating a shift as local capital attempts to fill the gap left by international capital withdrawal [3] Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions - Cross-border M&A activity has decreased significantly, with total deal value dropping from $448 billion in 2024 to $172 billion in the first half of 2025 [4] - The U.S. saw a 33% decline in M&A activity, while the UK experienced a 59% drop, and Europe overall declined by approximately 1% [4] - There is a notable increase in divestitures and withdrawals, leading to instability in M&A activities in developing countries [4] Impact on Sustainable Development - The decline in international investment activities negatively impacts the achievement of sustainable development goals, with related project numbers decreasing by 10% and investment amounts down by 7% [4] - This trend indicates not only fewer projects but also a reduction in the average size of individual projects, further weakening capital formation capabilities in developing countries [4] Future Investment Landscape - The global investment landscape is expected to become more "regionalized" and "friend-shored," with investments favoring politically friendly countries [5] - Supply chain-related manufacturing will continue to face pressure, and developed countries are likely to repatriate critical manufacturing processes [5] - Digital economy and artificial intelligence are projected to be the only bright spots for global investment growth, driven by strategic emphasis on AI and semiconductor development [5]