1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main asset volatility is too restrained, and the stock and bond markets are under - priced. There are short - term bearish warnings for the equity market, bond market, and valuation - type metals, which have been fully realized in the market last week [12]. - Although the selling sentiment has slightly eased based on the hope of peace talks, the geopolitical situation is still deteriorating, and the risk of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing non - linearly over time. The key to judging macro - risks is whether the logistics in the strait can be restarted [12]. - Gold initially has certain "cost - effectiveness" as its relative valuation has declined while volatility remains high. The gold - silver ratio is in an upward repair channel [16][19]. - In April, there will be a real rebound in CPI data. The inflation expectation is currently under - priced, and there will be a real inflation shock in April and May [20][21]. - When the oil price is above $100 per barrel, the 2 - year inflation expectation tends to be significantly higher than the linear regression level, and the transmission of the 2 - year inflation expectation to the 2 - year US Treasury yield is more significant [23][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Assets and Market High - Frequency Data 3.1.1. Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed - Income Weekly Performance**: The yields of various - term US Treasuries and major developed country bonds have changed. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.43% on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 4.82bp; the 10 - year German bond yield was 3.09% with a weekly change of 5.1bp [44][45]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spreads**: Track the changes in the US Treasury yield curve over 1, 3, and 6 months, as well as the long - short spreads of US Treasury yields [52]. - **Relative Strength of Credit Bonds with Different Ratings and Eurozone Bond Yields**: Analyze the relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds, and the spreads of Eurozone government bonds [61]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators**: Include the issuance of US short - term Treasury bills, medium - and long - term Treasuries, and the bid/subscription ratio of 2, 10, and 30 - year US Treasuries [70][74]. 3.1.2. Exchange Rate Market - **Weekly Performance of Major Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 100.1510 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 0.51%. The euro, yen, and other currencies also had corresponding changes [79][81]. - **Yield Spreads between Major Country Treasury Bonds and US Treasuries**: Analyze the 10 - year yield spreads between the US and G7 countries, and the 2 - year yield spreads between the US and Germany [82]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework**: The inter - bank 7 - day reverse repurchase serves as the "policy rate", and the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) and excess reserve ratio form the "interest rate corridor" [91]. - **Monthly Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, and China's import and export year - on - year data [96]. - **High - Frequency Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Such as the yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury bonds, and the DR007 and Hibor 7 - day interest rates [104]. 3.1.3. Commodities - **Weekly Performance of Major Commodities**: Brent crude oil reached $113 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 3.61%; London gold spot was $4494, with a weekly change of 0.04% [122][124]. - **Price Ratios of Major Commodities and Relative Strength of Industrial Chains**: Analyze the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and the relative strength of the energy - chemical and ferrous metal industrial chains [125]. - **Macro - Commodity High - Frequency Data**: Include OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventories [139][142]. 3.1.4. Overseas Equities - **Weekly Performance of Global Major Indexes and US Stock Sectors**: The S&P 500 index was 6368.85 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of - 2.12%. The S&P energy index had a weekly increase of 6.22%, while the S&P communication index had a weekly decrease of 7.17% [147][152]. - **Weekly Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking of US Stock Styles**: The US large - cap growth style had a weekly decline of 3.76%, and the US small - cap value style had a weekly increase of 0.46% [153][155]. - **Tracking of Best PE and EPS of US Stock Sectors**: Compare the current and pre - 1Q Best PE and EPS coordinates of 11 US stock sectors [158]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS Year - on - Year Trends of Major Indexes**: Analyze the EPS year - on - year trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indexes [163]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators**: Include the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX Index and the ICE Bond Volatility MOVE Index [170]. - **Tracking of US Stock Market Factors**: Track the total return performance of US stock market factors YTW (Year - to - Date) [179]. 3.1.5. Cryptocurrencies - **BTC, ETH, and Related Derivative Assets**: Track the Bitcoin futures main contract, non - commercial net positions, and the performance of cryptocurrency - related stocks [181][182]. 3.1.6. Post - YCC Era of the BOJ - **High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Yen Carry Trade System**: Include the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, the USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging cost, and the yen 3 - month volatility [189][191]. 3.2. Weekly Key Macroeconomic Logic Tracking and FICC Views - **Weekly Overseas Macroeconomic Highlights**: In the fifth week, there is hope for peace talks, but the real risks are still accumulating. The probability of a cease - fire between the US and Iran in April has dropped to 38%. The Strait of Hormuz is still under substantial blockade, and the risk of supply disruption is increasing [11]. - **FICC Asset Views**: - **US Dollar**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly with the oil price and risk sentiment, with support at 99.0 and an upper target of 104.5. In the long term, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, with an annual range of 96 - 108, and an upward risk [42]. - **Non - US Exchange Rates**: Most currencies in the G10 and Asian currency groups are undervalued against the US dollar. In the long term, attention should be paid to the change in geopolitical pricing [42]. - **10 - Year US Treasury Yield**: The short - term view is bearish, with a target of 4.45% reached. After considering the support at 4.35%, it is expected to remain strong. In the long term, the central rate of the 10 - year US Treasury is expected to be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and an upper target of 4.65% [42]. - **2 - Year US Treasury Yield**: The short - term view is bearish. The 10 - 2 spread may face resistance at around 55bp, with a preliminary target of 30bp. In the long term, the support is around 3.20%, and the upper target is 3.68% [42]. - **London Gold Spot**: In the short term, it can be speculated for a rebound under high volatility, but a trend increase requires time to digest the high volatility. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with buying cost - effectiveness [42]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: It is in an upward repair channel [42]. 3.3. Macroeconomic Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data - **Real - Time Economic Momentum**: Include the Fed's nominal and real real - time GDP models, and the economic surprise indexes of the US, Europe, and China [199][203]. - **Financial Conditions**: Analyze the central bank's balance sheet and the financial conditions index, including the Fed's balance sheet and the G4 central banks' balance sheets as a percentage of GDP [207]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Include the US federal government's fiscal expenditure and revenue items, and the government's debt - to - GDP ratio [214][219]. - **Employment Market**: Track the US employment market on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, household surveys, and ADP data [222]. - **Inflation Indicators**: Analyze the breakdown of US inflation data, core drivers, and inflation expectations [229]. - **Consumption Demand**: Track US consumption data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and housing mortgage applications [237][242]. - **Cycle Positioning**: Track industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, such as the LEI leading indicator, ISM PMI, and manufacturing new orders [259]. - **Credit Cycle**: Track the US credit situation, including SLOOS corporate credit surveys and high - yield corporate credit spreads [272]. - **Transportation and Logistics**: Track logistics data between China, Asia, Europe, and the US, including shipping volumes and port freight data [278][281][284]. - **Real Estate Market**: Analyze the US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate, including real estate indexes, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate loan delinquency rates [296][300]. - **Eurozone**: Analyze the Eurozone's macro - overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength, including deficit rates, inflation, and consumer confidence [305][313][322].

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting significant changes in inflation, employment, and consumer confidence [2][4][6][16][17]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US core PCE in January reached its highest level since March 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4][16]. - The ADP report indicates a steady growth in employment, with an average increase of 15,500 jobs per week [16]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a three-month low of 55.5 in March, down from 56.6 in February [16]. - The JOLTS job openings increased significantly by 396,000 to 6.946 million in January, surpassing expectations [16][17]. - Japan's wholesale inflation continued to slow, with the domestic corporate goods price index rising by 2% year-on-year in February [5][17]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index fell sharply to -3.1 in March, down from 4.2 [6][17]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index rose to 2.62% for the week ending March 7, indicating an uptick in economic activity [7][20]. - Germany's WAI index also improved, reaching 0.01% for the week ending March 8, up from -0.09% [21]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.2% year-on-year for the week ending March 6, down from 7.0% [24]. - Mortgage rates in the US increased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.11% as of March 12, up from 6.00% the previous week [25]. Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment report showed no change, with a cumulative addition of 62,000 jobs over the past four weeks [27]. - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 213,000 for the week ending March 7, down from 214,000 the previous week [30]. - The INDEED job vacancy index showed a slight decrease, with a weekly average of 104.5, indicating a decline in job openings [32]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising to 365.79, a 3.9% increase from the previous week [35]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.36 per gallon as of March 9, reflecting a 16.6% rise from the previous week [35]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.133, down from 0.150 the previous week [37]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed mixed results, with the yen to dollar swap basis improving while the euro to dollar swap basis deteriorated [39]. - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone widened, indicating increased risk perception [41][43].

Economic Data Review - The U.S. January core PCE year-on-year increased to the highest level since March 2024, rising by 3.1%[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March hit a three-month low at 55.5, down from 56.6 in February[10] - The JOLTS job openings in January surged by 396,000 to 6.946 million, exceeding expectations of 6.75 million[10] Employment Trends - The ADP weekly employment report showed a stable increase of 62,000 jobs over the past four weeks, unchanged from the previous week[26] - Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, down from 214,000 the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market[30] - The INDEED job vacancy index decreased to a weekly average of 104.5, slightly up from the previous week[34] Price Movements - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose to 365.79, increasing by 3.9% week-on-week and 17.0% over the past two weeks[36] - U.S. gasoline retail prices increased to $3.36 per gallon, up 16.6% from the previous week and 20.3% from two weeks ago[36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the U.S. dropping to 0.133 from 0.150 a week prior[40] - The offshore dollar liquidity showed a recovery in the yen against the dollar, while the euro against the dollar deteriorated[43] - The 10-year U.S.-Eurozone bond yield spread widened to 127.2 basis points, up from 124.1 basis points the previous week[45]

Group 1: Financial Conditions Index (FCI) - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) measures the "tightness" of financial conditions and their impact on the economy, reflecting monetary policy orientation and broader financial factors[4] - The FCI includes variables such as funding costs, availability, asset valuations, and international financial conditions[4] - The construction of the China Financial Conditions Index incorporates five factors: A-share average price-to-earnings ratio, the difference between interbank 7-day repo rates and 3-month treasury yields, the yield spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bonds, the yield spread between 3-month AAA corporate bonds and 3-month treasury bonds, and the US dollar index[4] Group 2: Trends and Predictions - From October 2021 to October 2023, China's financial conditions have tightened continuously, with a slight easing expected from November 2023 to early October 2024, followed by another tightening in late 2024[29] - The China Financial Conditions Index reached a recent high of 58.1 on January 7, 2025, before declining to -23.5 by the end of 2025, indicating a trend towards significant easing[29] - As of January 16, 2026, the index continued to decline to -25.9, suggesting ongoing financial easing driven by international dollar cycles[29] Group 3: Importance of Monitoring FCI - Monitoring the FCI aids in assessing economic prospects, as it can reveal information beyond traditional economic indicators, enhancing predictive accuracy[20] - The FCI helps evaluate the impact of international factors on domestic conditions, particularly in the context of global financial integration[21] - Understanding changes in the FCI is crucial for interpreting macroeconomic policies, as it serves as an intermediate variable in policy transmission[24] Group 4: Unique Features of the China FCI - The China FCI uniquely incorporates the increasing influence of international factors, reflecting the global financial cycle's impact on domestic conditions[34] - Compared to international indices, the China FCI is more localized in its construction, using domestic financial indicators that better represent China's financial environment[37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting the mixed signals in economic activity, employment, and financial conditions [1]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has rebounded, with the final Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4% [11][13]. - Japan's December export growth was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% compared to an expected 6.1% [11][14]. - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has improved, and the manufacturing PMI has also increased, with France's manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly four-year high of 51 [11][14]. Group 2: US Economic Activity - The US WEI index fell to 2.34% for the week ending January 17, down from 2.40% the previous week [4][16]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.06% for the week ending January 18, up from -0.03% [5][16]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate has marginally decreased to 5.5% for the week ending January 16, down from 5.7% [6][18]. - The US mortgage loan rate increased to 6.09% as of January 22, up from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA market composite index rose to 397.2, a 14.1% increase from the previous week [6][23]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices have rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 312.24, a 3.4% increase from the previous week [7]. - The US gasoline retail price rose to $2.70 per gallon on January 19, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [40]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly job additions have decreased, with a four-week cumulative total of 46,000 jobs as of December 6, down from 70,000 the previous week [8][27]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, up from 199,000 the previous week [29]. - The INDEED job vacancy index fell to a weekly average of 105.3 for the week ending January 9, down from the previous week's average [34]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.812, down from 0.848 the previous week [9][45]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has improved for the yen against the dollar, while it has worsened for the euro against the dollar [9][48]. - The 10-year government bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone has narrowed, with the spread at 132.3 basis points as of January 22, down from 134.6 basis points [10][51].

Economic Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51, indicating expansion, while the Q3 actual GDP annualized growth rate was finalized at 4.4%, up from a previous value of 3.8%[1] - Japan's December export growth was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, compared to an expected 6.1%[10] - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index increased to 40.8, up from 33.7, and the manufacturing PMI preliminary value rose to 49.4, with France's manufacturing PMI reaching a near four-year high of 51[10] US Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the US rose to 2.34% from 2.4% the previous week, indicating a slight increase in economic activity[2] - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate marginally decreased to 5.5% from 5.7%[17] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US increased to 6.09% from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA Market Composite Index rose to 397.2, a 14.1% increase week-on-week[21] Employment Trends - ADP weekly job additions fell to 46,000, down from 70,000 the previous week[26] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 200,000 from 199,000 the previous week, while continuing claims decreased to 1.849 million from 1.875 million[30] - The INDEED job vacancy index fell to a weekly average of 105.3, down 0.5% from the previous week[34] Price Movements - The RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index increased to 312.24, up 3.4% week-on-week and 3.6% over two weeks[36] - The average retail gasoline price in the US rose to $2.70 per gallon, a 1.3% increase from the previous week[36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US dropping to 0.812 from 0.848 the previous week[43] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while liquidity for the euro against the dollar worsened[46] - The 10-year US-EU bond yield spread narrowed to 132.3 basis points from 134.6 basis points the previous week[48]

Core Viewpoint - The report establishes a tactical analysis framework based on the eight-stage classification of the economic cycle and financial conditions, providing a structured basis for understanding asset performance under different macroeconomic states [2][5][11]. Group 1: Tactical Analysis Framework - The Economic Cycle Index (RECI) quantifies the internal trends of the economy, indicating whether the economy is in an upward or downward phase [6]. - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) quantifies the degree of financial environment tightness, categorizing it into four states: easing reinforcement, easing convergence, tightening reinforcement, and tightening convergence [9]. - The combination of RECI and FCI allows for the classification of the macroeconomic environment into eight typical stages, aiding in the understanding of asset performance under varying economic conditions [11][12]. Group 2: Asset Performance Review - The report systematically reviews the performance of major asset classes (stocks, bonds, and commodities) from June 2005 to August 2025, using the established eight-stage framework [2][11]. - Historical performance aligns with theoretical expectations in most stages, such as the "economic upturn + financial easing reinforcement" phase, where the asset ranking is "stocks > commodities > bonds > cash" [3][14]. - However, some stages exhibit systematic deviations, such as the "economic downturn + financial easing reinforcement" phase, where commodities outperformed bonds due to pre-priced easing expectations in the bond market [4][27]. Group 3: Historical Backtesting - Historical backtesting shows that during the "economic upturn + financial easing convergence" phase, commodities and stocks outperform cash and bonds, as seen in the period from June 2020 to February 2021 [19][18]. - The "economic downturn + financial tightening convergence" phase typically results in a ranking of "bonds > stocks > cash > commodities," as evidenced in the second quarter of 2014 [43]. - The report emphasizes the need for dynamic application of the framework, incorporating structural economic variables to enhance predictive accuracy [4].

Group 1: Key Economic Data Review - In the US, September durable goods orders were revised up to 3% from 2.9%, with a preliminary month-on-month value of 0.5% [12] - September retail sales increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.6% [12] - The Consumer Confidence Index for November was reported at 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the year-on-year figure was revised up to 2.7% [12] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes the November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1, and the November ISM Services PMI on December 3 [14] - In the Eurozone, the October unemployment rate and November CPI preliminary value are set to be released on December 2 [14] Group 3: Weekly Economic Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) decreased to 2.1% from 2.33% in the previous week, indicating a slight economic slowdown [17] - Conversely, Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) increased to 0.23%, showing continued economic recovery [17] Group 4: Demand Insights - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth slightly declined to 5.9% from 6.1% in the previous week [20] - Global flight numbers showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, down from 8.5% the previous week [22] - The US mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased to 6.23% from 6.26% [25] Group 5: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, better than the expected 225,000 [28] - Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, up from a previous value of 1.953 million [29] Group 6: Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1.3% [30] - US gasoline retail prices slightly decreased to $2.94 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [30] Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.629 [32] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved slightly, with swap points for USD/JPY and USD/EUR increasing [34] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed, with the 10-year bond spread between Italy and Germany decreasing to 71.4 basis points [36]

Group 1: International Factors Impacting Chinese Long Bond Rates - International factors are increasingly influential in determining China's long bond rates, especially under more open economic conditions[3] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) identifies a shift in global liquidity dynamics, with non-bank financial institutions becoming the main players in international capital flows since 2008[10] - The BIS financial condition index (FCI) highlights two key factors: the "level factor" reflecting interest rates and the "risk factor" indicating market risk perceptions[11] Group 2: Recent Trends and Implications - Since 2021, the BIS's "level factor" has risen sharply due to inflation and tightening U.S. monetary policy, indicating a significant tightening of financial conditions[12] - The "risk factor" has shown slight tightening since 2021, impacting China's economic conditions, but this effect is expected to ease as major central banks begin lowering interest rates in Q4 2024[12] - A strong U.S. dollar has a negative correlation with China's 10-year government bond yields, with a correlation coefficient of -0.89 from January 2014 to September 2025, indicating that dollar strength significantly influences bond rates[15]

Economic Indicators - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth rebounded slightly to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45%[5] - The WEI index for the US fell to 2, down from 2.27 the previous week, indicating a decrease in economic activity[4] - The German WAI index rose to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week, suggesting improved economic conditions[4] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US decreased to 0.511 from 0.514 a week earlier, indicating tighter financial conditions[7] - The offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8bp, worsening from -24.3bp a week prior[8] - The credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91bp, compared to 2.96bp a week earlier[9] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index stood at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week[6] - US gasoline prices rebounded to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week[6] Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan government bond spread narrowed to 240.5bp from 241.6bp the previous week[10] - The 10-year Italian-German bond spread decreased to 75.5bp from 76bp a week earlier, indicating reduced risk perception in the Eurozone[10]