Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a broad increase driven by optimistic market sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index reaching a historical high, rising 4.11% or 1637.12 points to close at 41456.23 points [1] - Southeast Asian markets mostly rose, with notable increases in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index, which rose 2.41% or 36.09 points, closing at 1533.37 points, and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index, which rose 3.17% or 231.58 points, closing at 7543.5 points [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The U.S. reached a trade agreement with Japan, where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [1] - On the same day, the U.S. also reached agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, with the Philippines facing a 19% tariff while opening its market to the U.S. [3] - Analysts suggest that the short-term market optimism may vary by country, with Indonesia and the Philippines less affected by U.S. tariffs due to lower export dependency [3][4] Group 3: Economic Growth and Forecasts - Southeast Asian countries reported better-than-expected economic growth in Q2, with Vietnam's GDP growing 7.96%, surpassing the expected 6.85% [6] - Despite positive growth, the World Bank downgraded economic forecasts for Southeast Asia, predicting growth rates of 5.8% for Vietnam, 5.3% for the Philippines, and 4.7% for Indonesia [6] - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth forecast was also lowered to 3.8% for this year, reflecting concerns over external economic pressures [6][7] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - Malaysia and Indonesia implemented interest rate cuts in July to support their economies amid a backdrop of declining inflation [7] - The AMRO chief economist indicated that the ASEAN+3 region has the capacity to introduce further stimulus measures due to generally stable fiscal conditions [7] Group 5: Risks to Japan's Economy - Despite the positive sentiment from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, Japan's economy faces risks, including potential economic slowdown in the U.S. that could impact Japanese exports [8] - Analysts warn that increased tariffs could lead Japanese companies to relocate production closer to the U.S., potentially harming Japan's economic stability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced new tariffs on over 20 countries, effective August 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, impacting major ASEAN countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines [1][5] Market Performance - Despite the looming tariffs, the Asia-Pacific stock markets showed resilience, with most indices rising, particularly in Southeast Asia where Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index surged by 5.23% [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.61%, while the KOSPI in South Korea rose by 3.98% [2] Economic Analysis - Southeast Asian markets are relatively insulated from U.S. tariff threats due to prior adjustments and strong economic data supporting investor confidence [2][3] - High expectations for Asian stock markets have been bolstered by favorable macroeconomic conditions and increased certainty regarding tariff policies, with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific index by 3% to 700 points [3][4] Country-Specific Insights - Thailand's exports are projected to suffer losses between 176.4 billion to 198.4 billion RMB due to U.S. tariffs, with concerns over political uncertainty and domestic demand [5][6] - Indonesia is focusing on expanding exports to non-traditional markets to mitigate reliance on the U.S. [6][7] - Vietnam's economy is performing well, with a GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first half of the year, attributed to strong export orders [6][7] IPO Market Outlook - Indonesia's IDX is optimistic about achieving its goal of 66 IPOs by 2025, reflecting a growing interest in capital markets [8][9]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed performance last week, influenced by the impending deadline for the US "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Southeast Asian markets mostly rose, with Thailand's SET index leading with a weekly increase of 3.47% [1] - The Ho Chi Minh index in Vietnam rose by 1.14%, while the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia fell by 0.47% [1] Economic Factors - The upcoming deadline for US tariffs is affecting market sentiment, with trade negotiations impacting stock performance [1][4] - The weakening US dollar and lower demand for US Treasury bonds are expected to attract some capital to Asian markets [2] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam has boosted market confidence, contributing to the rise in the Ho Chi Minh index [3] Country-Specific Insights - Singapore's Straits Times Index saw a 1.2% increase, benefiting from its status as an international financial center amid trade uncertainties [3] - Thailand's stock market is recovering due to reduced domestic political risks, leading to a notable upward trend [3] - The economic growth rates of Southeast Asia's major economies are slowing, with Indonesia's GDP growth at 4.87%, Malaysia at 4.4%, and Singapore at 3.9% [5][6] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the Asia-Pacific stock market will likely maintain a volatile upward trend, influenced by trade negotiations and US monetary policy adjustments [4] - The World Bank forecasts a slowdown in economic growth for the East Asia and Pacific region, with Southeast Asian countries facing significant pressure due to external trade uncertainties [6][7] Sector Performance - The Korean stock market has performed well, with the composite index up nearly 30% this year, driven by expectations around stablecoin policies and pro-shareholder government initiatives [8] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.85%, ending a three-week upward trend, amid concerns over US-Japan trade negotiations [8]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed a significant rebound last week, with all indices closing higher [1][2] - The Indonesian Jakarta Composite Index led the gains, rising 3.74% to 6678.92 points, while other Southeast Asian markets also experienced increases [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.81% to 35705.74 points, and South Korea's KOSPI Index increased by 2.53% to 2546.3 points [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The rebound in Southeast Asian markets was primarily driven by expectations of a relaxation in U.S. tariff policies, a decline in the U.S. dollar index, and regional stimulus measures [1][3] - Analysts noted that the recent quick adjustment of the U.S. dollar and technical rebound demands contributed to the uplift in the Asia-Pacific stock markets [2] - The Indonesian market is experiencing strong momentum with continued foreign capital inflow, supported by solid economic fundamentals and growth sectors [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent recovery, analysts caution that the Asia-Pacific stock markets will remain highly volatile due to the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The Indonesian stock market has been upgraded by UBS from "neutral" to "overweight," indicating positive sentiment towards its future performance [3] - Japan's stock and bond markets are attracting record foreign investment, driven by factors such as the U.S. tariff policy and a stable policy environment from the Bank of Japan [5]