2025.09. 25 本文字数：1089，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑栩彤 第一财经记者获悉，长江存储科技控股有限责任公司（以下简称"长存集团"）近日召开了股份公司成 立大会，大会选举产生了股份公司首届董事会成员。此举意味着该公司完成了股份制改革。 长存集团是国内唯一一家3D NAND原厂长江存储的母公司。据胡润研究院最新发布的《2025全球独 角兽榜》，长江存储估值1600亿元，位列中国十大独角兽第九。2025年4月，上市公司养元饮品发 布对外投资公告，称旗下子公司泉泓投资出资16亿元投资长存集团，获得后者0.99%的股份，以此 计算，长存集团估值则为1616亿元。 除了4月获得来自泉泓投资、农银投资等16家机构的投资，今年7月，长存集团的股东行列中，还新 增了员工持股平台武汉市智芯计划一号至六号企业管理合伙企业（有限合伙），4月和7月两笔融资 额累计超百亿元。长江存储近期受到关注，还因为公司有扩大产能的动作。本月早些时候，长江存储 与湖北长晟三期共同出资207.2亿元成立长存三期（武汉）集成电路有限责任公司，其中长江存储出 资104亿元、持股50.1931%。 NAND Flash是目前最 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银财富管理亚太区投资总监办公室发表报告指，金价或有进一步的上涨空间，到 2026年中，金价或将达到每盎司3900美元。该行预计黄金有望继续受益于实际利率下降、美元走软以及 投资需求在地缘政治风险持续下保持强劲。 瑞银财富管理表示，在美联储可能进一步宽松政策和通胀仍然高企的情况下，美国实际利率有望进一步 下降，利好黄金。尽管最近几周中国对黄金的投资需求因其国内股市上涨而疲软，但随着金价持续上 涨，该行预计中国黄金ETF持仓量或将恢复。 该行同时预计，美联储或在2026年一季度前再降息75个基点，且美国经济不会陷入衰退。在亚洲，额外 货币和财政支持措施正陆续出台，科技供应链继续受益于AI需求，预计随着人民币回升以及出口商将 大量美元收入汇回本国，亚洲货币有望进一步走强。 瑞银财富管理预计，由于美联储潜在降息幅度大于其他央行，以及人民币有望回升，亚洲货币在未来12 个月兑美元或平均升值4%。投资者应考虑对冲投资组合中的美元敞口，并分散投资于澳元和欧元等其 他货币。 对于中国股市，该行认为，涨势尚未达到巅峰，随着家庭大量额外储蓄逐渐流入市场，机器人等创新板 块的估值可能继续重估，中国科技股仍是该 ...

2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 3 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锌：小幅回落 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：震荡偏弱 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：区间震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：期货仓单增加，关注市场情绪波动 | 18 | | 多晶硅：盘面下跌，短期非标出货偏好 | 18 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：需求表现平淡，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：需求表现平淡，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反 ...

观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：小幅回落 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：震荡偏弱 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：震荡调整 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment industry experienced a significant increase, with stocks like Changchuan Technology rising by 20%, and Hu Silicon Industry and Zhongwei Company also showing strong gains [1] - The Chip Equipment ETF (560780) rose by 7.72% in a single day, outperforming all other ETFs in the market, and has accumulated a gain of over 45% year-to-date, indicating strong industry momentum [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, which includes 40 listed companies involved in semiconductor materials and equipment, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [1] Group 2 - Changchuan Technology announced a profit forecast for the first three quarters, expecting a net profit of 827 million to 877 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 131.39% to 145.38% [2] - The company anticipates a third-quarter net profit of 400 million to 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 180.67% to 215.75%, driven by increased demand in the semiconductor industry and substantial sales revenue growth [2] - Haitong Securities expressed optimism about the investment opportunities for domestic equipment companies, suggesting that the investment cycle led by advanced processes is likely to continue [2]

Group 1 - The 28th Chengdu International Auto Show will be held from August 29 to September 7, increasing attention on the new energy vehicle industry chain [1] - The 2025 Global Power Battery Recycling Industry Summit and the 13th Retired Power Battery Recycling Utilization Forum will take place from August 29 to 31 in Shenzhen, focusing on power battery and recycling technology topics which may catalyze the sector [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference on August 29, with market attention on new energy industry policy trends [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159261.SZ) rose by 3.44%, and its related index, the New Energy Index (399266.SZ), increased by 3.32% [1] - Major constituent stocks saw significant gains, with CATL up 9.03%, Lead Intelligent up 20.01%, EVE Energy up 5.49%, Zhongke Electric up 15.30%, and Xinwanda up 4.91% [1] Group 3 - According to research from Aijian Securities, high growth in AI demand is driving the expansion of the AI Computing Center (AIDC) market, with the global AI server market expected to reach $125.1 billion in 2024 and grow to $222.7 billion by 2028, significantly boosting supporting energy storage demand [1] - The electrochemical energy storage industry chain is primarily driven by lithium iron phosphate batteries upstream, with integration involving companies like CATL and BYD in the midstream, and downstream applications concentrated in new energy generation, entering a rapid development phase supported by policy and cost reductions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the acceleration of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, driven by AI demand and supportive government policies [2][3] - The Chinese semiconductor market has become the largest in the world, accounting for approximately 54% of global chip consumption, yet it remains highly dependent on imports, exceeding 80% [3] - The establishment of the National Big Fund Phase III, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, aims to support critical areas such as manufacturing equipment, materials, advanced packaging, and AI chips [3] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a full-chain expansion and iteration opportunity, with policies enhancing support and performance realization entering a cycle [3] - The overall valuation of the Chinese chip sector is currently at a relatively low level, which has not fully reflected the expectations of domestic substitution [3] - The Chip ETF (512760) tracks an index that selects high-tech and high-growth potential companies in the semiconductor industry, covering design, manufacturing, and testing [4] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the semiconductor ETF include companies like SMIC (9.13%), Hanlong Technology (7.60%), and Northern Huachuang (7.44%), indicating a strong presence of key players in the market [5] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CES Semiconductor Industry ETF Connect C (008282) and A (008281) for exposure to the semiconductor sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with positive expectations for the analog and memory sectors, driven by strong demand in North America and adjustments in supply chain forecasts for 2026 [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, while the electronics sector increased by 1.65% over the past week, with the consumer electronics sub-sector seeing a notable rise of 4.27% [3]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and Taiwan Information Technology Index also experienced gains of 1.17%, 2.72%, and 2.90%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The recent surge in computing power in North America has become a key driver of market sentiment, particularly benefiting the switch and server industries due to changes in network architecture influenced by ASIC trends [3]. - Supply chains have recently revised upward their shipment forecasts for NVIDIA's GB series products for 2026, reinforcing the high growth trend in the computing chain [3]. - TSMC anticipates sustained strong demand for AI, with a moderate recovery in non-AI demand, leading to an upward revision of its annual revenue growth forecast from approximately 25% [3].

Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with current earnings reflecting a 10-15% impact from tariffs [8][15][10] - The European telecom sector shows potential for dividend growth, with an average expected increase of 4.3% over the next two years [22][19] - The Stoxx 600 index's earnings have been adjusted downwards by 3-4.5% due to tariff impacts, with a potential further decline of 2.5-5% under a 25% tariff scenario [16][18] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - Japan's inflation is projected to further slow to around 2.5%, with the Tokyo CPI showing a decrease from 3.6% to 3.1% [34][36] - The machine tool orders in Japan remained stable, with June orders reaching 133 billion yen, indicating a 3% month-on-month growth [33][31] - Companies like JR East and Fujitsu are highlighted for their growth opportunities, with JR East's target price set at 4,100 yen and Fujitsu at 4,200 yen [42][40] Group 3: Taiwan Market Focus - Taiwan's exports surged by 33.7% year-on-year in June, driven by strong demand for technology products, particularly computers and servers [52][49] - AI demand remains robust, but corporate earnings growth may slow, with potential risks to performance in the second half of the year [53][55] - Companies such as Jentech and Jiadeng Precision are positioned to benefit from strong ASIC demand and advanced process requirements, respectively [57][56]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced new tariffs on over 20 countries, effective August 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, impacting major ASEAN countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines [1][5] Market Performance - Despite the looming tariffs, the Asia-Pacific stock markets showed resilience, with most indices rising, particularly in Southeast Asia where Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index surged by 5.23% [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.61%, while the KOSPI in South Korea rose by 3.98% [2] Economic Analysis - Southeast Asian markets are relatively insulated from U.S. tariff threats due to prior adjustments and strong economic data supporting investor confidence [2][3] - High expectations for Asian stock markets have been bolstered by favorable macroeconomic conditions and increased certainty regarding tariff policies, with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific index by 3% to 700 points [3][4] Country-Specific Insights - Thailand's exports are projected to suffer losses between 176.4 billion to 198.4 billion RMB due to U.S. tariffs, with concerns over political uncertainty and domestic demand [5][6] - Indonesia is focusing on expanding exports to non-traditional markets to mitigate reliance on the U.S. [6][7] - Vietnam's economy is performing well, with a GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first half of the year, attributed to strong export orders [6][7] IPO Market Outlook - Indonesia's IDX is optimistic about achieving its goal of 66 IPOs by 2025, reflecting a growing interest in capital markets [8][9]