白银，还是那块"穷人的黄金"，不过这回被国家喊成了战略物资，事情没那么简单，谁也别装糊涂。 中国商务部一下公告，白银出口从配额走向"一单一审"，门槛一抬到年产80吨以上，入围的只有44家企业，这意味着什么，不言自明，出口通道收缩，散户 和小商被排除在外。 你会问，白银值不值当这番操作，值，理由有三点——光伏要它做导电胶，AI要它做连接线，新能源车要它做电池层，没有它，这几项产业都难以顺畅推 进。 再问，为什么现在出手，时机讲究得很，2025年全球连续第五年供给赤字，缺口3660吨，回头看，2026年缺口可能翻倍到七八千吨，中国一收，全球就要挨 冻。 有人说这是贸易策略，也有人看作是资源民族主义，确实，两者都在这里纠缠——国家把一度廉价流出的工业原料收回国内，是保护自己的产业链，也是把 定价权从别人手里拽回来。 你别以为西方无动于衷，早在2025年美国就把白银列为"关键矿产"，想建储备，可问题是精炼能力不够，谁在全球主导精炼环节，数字写得清楚——中国占 了大约65%份额。 策略上，国内要做两件事，一是稳住国内下游的配给和价格，避免短期囤积和投机，二是加速精炼与替代技术研发，降低对单一材料的脆弱依赖，这才是真 正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The situation surrounding ASML and its Chinese subsidiary highlights the complexities of geopolitical tensions and the shifting dynamics in the semiconductor industry, particularly the growing independence of Chinese firms in the global supply chain [1][3][18] Group 1: Events Leading to the Situation - On September 30, the Dutch government invoked a wartime emergency law to take control of ASML, citing national security concerns, which was perceived as a politically motivated action [3][5] - The Dutch government's actions were influenced by recent U.S. regulations aimed at preventing Chinese infiltration, leading to a miscalculation regarding ASML's operational dependencies in China [3][5][11] Group 2: ASML China's Response - ASML China announced the resumption of chip supplies to Europe under three new conditions: re-signing supply agreements, using RMB for transactions, and prioritizing domestic orders [1][7][8] - The requirement for RMB settlements signifies a move to diminish the dominance of the U.S. dollar in semiconductor trade, reflecting China's broader strategy to expand its currency's global usage [10][18] Group 3: Impact on European Automotive Industry - European automakers, heavily reliant on ASML's chips, faced potential production halts, prompting them to pressure the Dutch government for negotiations with China [5][11] - The automotive sector's dependence on ASML's power semiconductors, which hold nearly 20% of the global market share, underscores the critical nature of this supply chain [5][11] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The Dutch government's actions have backfired, leading to a realization that the European semiconductor supply chain is significantly dependent on China, affecting various industries including automotive and communications [11][13] - ASML China is expected to see a doubling of its annual output value in the next two years, positioning it among the top five power semiconductor suppliers globally [13][18]

Core Points - European automotive suppliers are advocating for new EU regulations to ensure a significant proportion of locally manufactured components in vehicles, aiming to enhance the competitiveness, safety, and sustainability of the European automotive industry [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The European automotive industry is facing a critical turning point, with component suppliers creating 75% of the value and supporting 1.7 million jobs, yet facing threats from rising costs, fragmented regulations, and global competition [3] - The current market demand for European automobiles is weak, compounded by high energy costs and increased tariff expenses, leading to significant job cuts and business adjustments among suppliers [6][8] - Major companies like Bosch and ZF Friedrichshafen are announcing substantial layoffs, with Bosch planning to cut approximately 13,000 jobs by the end of 2030, primarily in its automotive components division [6][7] Group 2: Local Content and Sovereignty - CLEPA is calling for the EU to establish new rules mandating minimum local content requirements for automotive components, suggesting that local parts should account for 70% to 75% of vehicles [4][9] - The concept of "industrial sovereignty" is emphasized, with CLEPA urging the EU to implement policies that secure the long-term strategic direction of the automotive industry and attract more investments [3][5] Group 3: Key Capacity Retention - CLEPA advocates for EU measures to support local companies in enhancing their production capabilities for critical components like batteries and semiconductors, aiming to prevent the loss of key capacities [5] - The organization stresses the importance of reducing operational costs and regulatory burdens to maintain industry resilience and minimize layoffs [5] Group 4: EU Actions and Internal Disputes - The EU has already initiated discussions on local content policies, with plans to enhance European value in the battery supply chain and set specific local content requirements for electric vehicle components [9][10] - There is internal disagreement within the EU regarding the implementation of local content rules, with some industry voices, particularly from Germany, expressing concerns about excessive regulation [10][11]