Core Points - The European Union (EU) is planning to establish a central institution to coordinate the procurement and storage of critical minerals in response to the United States' aggressive actions in the global mineral market [2][4] - EU officials express concerns over the slow response to the US's "America First" policy, which has exposed the EU's economic vulnerabilities [1][2] - The EU aims to enhance its economic security by integrating more protective measures into its supply chains and establishing partnerships with countries like Brazil and South Africa [4][5] Group 1: EU's Strategic Response - The EU's plan includes signing cooperation agreements with Brazil and South Africa to secure mineral supplies [4] - The EU is also considering setting price floors for critical minerals to ensure domestic availability for European companies [4] - The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) will come into effect in May 2024, focusing on achieving self-sufficiency in strategic raw materials through financial support for 47 strategic projects [4][12] Group 2: US Actions and Implications - The US has been rapidly securing critical mineral supplies through various means, including the Defense Production Act and acquiring stakes in foreign mining companies [5][7] - The US's aggressive strategy has raised concerns in the EU about being left behind in the competition for essential resources [7][11] - The EU fears that US actions may undermine its strategic projects, as seen with the tungsten mining project in the UK that has attracted US investment [8][11] Group 3: Future Directions for the EU - The EU is expected to propose a more detailed critical mineral plan by the end of 2025, which will complement the CRMA [11][12] - The "RESourceEU" initiative aims to strengthen trade ties with third countries and enhance the resilience of Europe's strategic metal supply chains [11][12] - The EU is also exploring domestic mining and refining options, as well as partnerships with neighboring countries to boost its autonomy in critical minerals [12]

2026 年大宗商品分析与展望 20251119 摘要 预计 2026 年内需品种乐观程度将提高，电解铝和钢铁配置价值上升， 受益于中美贸易战缓解及"十五五"规划政策支持，提升大宗商品风险 偏好和经济乐观预期。 中美贸易战缓解后，黄金避险需求或减退，但金价仍可能上行，黄金相 关股票吸引力增加，因高位持续时间越长，对企业盈利和估值修正越有 利，2026 年黄金股票投资吸引力或超黄金本身。 资源民族主义持续，镍、锡、钴等供应链脆弱的战略性金属仍被看好， 尽管 2025 年表现不佳，但 2026 年价格空间依然巨大。 美国 AI 投资支撑铜价，但铝因供给控制宽松表现不如铜。高利率环境不 利于传统行业，结构性需求支撑的铜前景乐观，供给侧控制严格的铝也 值得关注。 美国铜库存占全球 40%-50%，导致其他地区供应紧张，COMEX 铜价 高于 LME，跨市套利成为可能。若美国远月价格显著下降，可能改变此 局面，但目前尚未看到。 Q&A 对于 2026 年大宗商品市场的整体看法是什么？ 2026 年大宗商品市场的前景总体乐观，尤其是内需品种。2025 年无论外需还 是内需表现都较为一般，除了铜和黄金价格表现较好外，其他商 ...

Core Insights - The global palm oil market is undergoing a significant transformation characterized by high volatility, high premiums, and policy-driven dynamics. The era of supply growth is ending, with demand being reshaped by biodiesel policies, making regulations more critical than traditional supply-demand factors in price formation [4][5][20]. Market Reality - The palm oil market has entered a structurally tight phase due to a fundamental shift in the supply and demand landscape. Key drivers include capacity constraints, policy interventions, and resilient demand. Major producers Indonesia and Malaysia are experiencing a slowdown in growth, while biodiesel policies are reshaping global trade flows [5][6][8]. Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is reaching a ceiling, with forecasts indicating a slowdown or even negative growth by 2026 due to aging trees, slow replanting rates, and land ownership uncertainties. Malaysia's production is also stagnating, with a slight decline expected [6][7]. - Thailand is a rare bright spot, with a production increase of 0.8% due to advantages in EU compliance [7]. Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's domestic biodiesel policies are significantly influencing demand, with the B40 policy consuming approximately 15.62 million kiloliters of crude palm oil (CPO). The proposed B50 policy could further increase demand by 1.5 to 3 million tons, squeezing export supplies [8]. - Import markets remain resilient, with India expected to increase palm oil imports from 8.1 million tons to 9.1 million tons in the 2025/26 period, supported by strategic reserves in China and demand from ASEAN and Africa [8]. Consensus Expectations - There is a clear consensus among institutions regarding a bullish long-term outlook for palm oil prices, driven by structural supply tightness. However, short-term price fluctuations are expected due to inventory pressures and policy uncertainties [9][10]. - The average annual growth rate for global palm oil production is projected to drop from 2.9 million tons in the past decade to 1.4 million tons in the next decade, marking the end of the capacity expansion era [9]. Price Outlook - In the short term (Q4 2025 - Q1 2026), prices are expected to be under pressure due to high Malaysian production and seasonal increases in Indonesian output, potentially dropping to $920-$950 per ton. In the medium to long term, prices may rebound to $1,100 per ton due to seasonal low production and the potential implementation of the B50 policy [10]. Institutional Divergence - Significant differences exist among institutions regarding price forecasts, focusing on the extent of supply declines, timing of policies, and external factors. Some institutions predict a price rebound starting in Q1 2026, while others emphasize the need for policy triggers [11][12][14]. Core Variables and Drivers - The future market direction hinges on several core variables, including the timing of Indonesia's B50 policy implementation, the execution details of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), weather and production risks, and dynamics of competing oils [16][18][21]. - Indonesia's strategic approach to palm oil, driven by resource nationalism, aims to enhance its global pricing power while reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels through biodiesel policies [21][22].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the resurgence of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization, emphasizing coal's strategic importance for national energy security. Major coal-producing countries like Indonesia, Mongolia, and the USA are tightening control over coal resources, integrating them into national strategies to bolster energy independence and support domestic industrial and power needs [3][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - The coal industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with safety and environmental regulations leading to a more rational supply order. The release of production capacity is expected to be steady but cautious, promoting high-quality development in the coal sector [3][4]. - Domestic supply costs are rising, and coal imports are tightening marginally due to increased scrutiny and regulations [4][32]. Demand Side Analysis - The report anticipates a stable and slight increase in overall coal demand, driven by the rigid growth in electricity consumption and the irreplaceable role of coal in peak regulation and energy security. The expected price range for thermal coal in 2026 is projected to be between 750-800 RMB per ton [3][4][29]. - The resilience of coal power generation is highlighted, particularly in the context of fluctuating renewable energy output, indicating that coal will continue to play a crucial role in the energy mix [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. It also suggests paying attention to companies with price elasticity like Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Tebian Electric Apparatus, and Shanxi Coal International [3][4]. - Growth-oriented companies in coal-electricity joint ventures, such as Xinji Energy, are also recommended for consideration [3][4]. Regional Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline in 2025 due to new resource tax regulations, which will increase export costs and support domestic coal prices [11][12]. - Mongolia's coal production and sales are affected by ongoing political instability, impacting the stability of coal imports [17][18]. - The USA is implementing favorable policies to revitalize its coal industry, including reducing royalty rates and increasing federal land available for coal exploration [21][22]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - Future coal production capacity is expected to be limited, with only about 67 million tons of new capacity projected over the next three years. The focus is shifting towards regions like Xinjiang, which has significant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [61][67]. - The report notes that the overall coal production in China is unlikely to see significant growth in 2026 due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures [51][53].

Core Insights - The importance of non-ferrous metals is highlighted by two significant announcements: the inclusion of copper, silver, and uranium in the U.S. critical minerals list and China's commitment to optimizing export control processes for rare earths and other dual-use items [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Critical Minerals List - The U.S. Geological Survey released the 2025 critical minerals list, which includes ten newly added minerals such as boron, copper, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphates, potassium salts, rhenium, silicon, silver, and uranium [1]. - Minerals on this list will receive government funding support and expedited approval processes, emphasizing their strategic importance in the current international context [1]. Group 2: China's Export Control Measures - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that items like rare earths have dual-use properties and will be permitted for compliant applications, aiming to enhance communication and cooperation with other countries [1]. - The focus is on ensuring the stability and security of global supply chains while promoting compliant trade practices [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from "resource nationalism," which exacerbates supply-demand conflicts as resource-rich countries tighten controls, leading to increased development costs and potential price surges for strategic metals like copper [1]. - The anticipated start of a new macroeconomic cycle, indicated by narrowing declines in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggests that industrial and minor metals may become core investment targets in the upcoming market [1]. Group 4: Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase of 74.68%, leading the industry, supported by strong fundamentals [2]. - Among the 60 stocks in the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876), 56 companies reported profits, with 44 showing year-on-year net profit growth, including notable increases from companies like Chuangjiang New Material and Guocheng Mining [2]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Direct investment in the non-ferrous metals sector allows investors to benefit from both the safe-haven value of precious metals and the growth potential of industrial metals in high-demand sectors like renewable energy and aerospace [2]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) provides a diversified approach, tracking a range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [3].

Group 1 - Bolivia's new president, Luis Arce, has overturned previous lithium mining policies, opening the door for foreign investment and cooperation [1] - Bolivia holds approximately 20% of the world's lithium reserves, making it a key player in the global shift towards electric vehicles and energy storage [1] - Latin American countries are shifting from merely exporting raw materials to demanding local processing and value addition [6][19] Group 2 - Chile has enacted laws requiring foreign companies to establish local processing facilities, with over 70% of processing needing to occur domestically [6] - Brazil has linked rare earth exports to technology transfer agreements, indicating a trend towards resource nationalism [6][21] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on lithium imports from Argentina and Chile, with over 90% of its demand met by these countries [13] Group 3 - China has established a strong foothold in Latin America, controlling over 85% of global rare earth processing capacity and investing in infrastructure projects [15][17] - Chinese companies, such as CATL, are negotiating to assist Bolivia in developing lithium extraction technologies, aligning with local demands for technology transfer [23] - The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, with the EU also seeking to establish a presence in Latin America through investment and cooperation [30][31] Group 4 - The upcoming elections in Chile could significantly impact lithium and copper export policies, as candidates have differing views on foreign investment and nationalization [25][26] - Environmental concerns are rising, with regulations being implemented to limit water usage in lithium mining, reflecting a shift towards sustainable practices [37] - Latin American countries are now actively negotiating better terms for foreign investment, seeking to maximize their benefits from resource extraction [38]

Disagreements between governments and investors over resources are at a 10-year high, law firm DLA Piper said, driven by resource nationalism and growing competition between the U.S. and China for critical minerals. ...

Core Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. plans to invest $1.084 billion in the KFM Phase II project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, aiming to enhance copper production amid global supply shortages [1][5] - The project is strategically significant, reflecting the evolution of Chinese enterprises' globalization strategies [1][5] Project Overview - The KFM Phase II project builds on the success of Phase I and is a well-validated strategic decision [2] - The project will increase ore processing capacity by 7.26 million tons per year and is expected to produce an additional 100,000 tons of copper annually upon completion in 2027 [4] - The investment breakdown includes $859 million for engineering costs, $109 million for other construction expenses, and $116 million for contingency funds, showcasing meticulous project management [4] Financial Support - Luoyang Molybdenum reported a net profit of approximately 14.28 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 72.61% increase year-on-year, providing a solid financial foundation for this investment [5] - The increase in profits is attributed to rising prices and sales of key products, including copper, cobalt, and other minerals [5] Global Significance - The International Energy Agency predicts that the market for critical minerals will quadruple by 2030, with copper demand expected to grow rapidly due to electrification [5] - The KFM Phase II project will play a crucial role in alleviating future copper supply constraints and will also provide essential raw materials for the global battery industry [5] Global Strategy - Luoyang Molybdenum's internationalization reflects a broader trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas, with significant investments in the DRC, including the Tenke Fungurume mine [6][8] - The company has diversified its portfolio to include various metals, enhancing its resilience against market fluctuations [9] Challenges and Opportunities - The rise of resource nationalism poses challenges for international mining companies, including increased taxes and local processing requirements [11][12] - Chinese companies, including Luoyang Molybdenum, have unique advantages in navigating these challenges by integrating resource development with infrastructure projects [13][14] - The company emphasizes local engagement, community development, and balancing interests among stakeholders to ensure stable operations [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the gold mining industry, highlighting the potential for Chinese companies to rise in global rankings while emphasizing the challenges faced by individual investors in a market dominated by institutional players [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international gold price is projected to rise significantly, with an increase of over 50% in 2025, reaching highs of $4,300 per ounce [2]. - Chinese companies like Zijin Mining and Shengtun Mining are actively pursuing international acquisitions, indicating a trend towards globalization in the mining sector [2]. - The market has evolved into a "winner-takes-all" scenario, where institutional investors dominate, leading to significant losses for individual investors [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - The behavior of institutional investors is characterized by continuity, scale, and repeatability, which can be tracked through quantitative analysis [2]. - The concept of "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) is prevalent, particularly in the A-share market, where institutional investors often dictate market trends [2]. - The performance of stocks can vary significantly based on the activity level of "institutional inventory," with some stocks showing sustained growth while others falter [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to focus on observing institutional behavior rather than attempting to predict market movements or company rankings [9]. - Understanding the differences in market structures and cultural factors between domestic and international markets is crucial for investment decisions [9]. - Patience is advised, with a recommendation to wait for sustained activity in "institutional inventory" before making investment decisions [9]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The ability of Chinese companies to enhance their overseas acquisition capabilities is linked to improvements in technological and operational competencies [7]. - The concept of resource nationalism is discussed, suggesting that it should not be viewed negatively but rather as a strategic consideration in investment [8]. - Continuous tracking and timely adjustments are essential for successful investment in the competitive global mining landscape [8].

Core Viewpoint - In the next 3-5 years, at least three leading Chinese gold mining companies are expected to enter the world's top ten, marking a shift towards a "Chinese era" in global gold mining [1][2]. Industry Overview - Currently, only Zijin Mining is among the top ten global gold companies [2]. - The driving force behind the globalization of Chinese gold mining has shifted from traditional economic and industrial drivers to strategic and national drivers [2]. - International gold prices have surged over 50% this year, with spot gold exceeding $4,300 per ounce, rising more than $1,000 in just two months [2]. M&A Activities - Chinese mining companies are accelerating overseas gold acquisitions, supported by government policies encouraging high-quality international cooperation [3]. - Zijin Mining completed the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine project in Ghana for $1 billion and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, increasing its operational gold mines to nine [5][6]. - Other companies, such as Shengton Mining, are also pursuing overseas acquisitions, with Shengton planning to acquire 100% of Canadian Loncor for $190 million [6]. Investment Trends - Over the past five years, Chinese mining companies have spent over $2 billion annually on overseas metal acquisitions, with a shift from lithium to gold investments due to market conditions [7]. - In 2024, Chinese gold overseas acquisitions are projected to reach six deals totaling approximately $1.7 billion [7]. Challenges and Strategies - Despite the growth in overseas acquisitions, challenges such as resource nationalism and complex legal and tax environments remain significant hurdles [11][12]. - Companies are advised to enhance their understanding of local laws and tax regulations to mitigate risks associated with acquisitions [12][13]. - The importance of talent, including local and international expertise, is emphasized as a critical factor for successful integration and operation in foreign markets [17].