作者 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 商品市场上，贵金属和有色两大板块继续作为"领头羊"带动商品向上反弹，农产品板块反弹幅度稍微偏 弱，而能源化工市场仍然在定价未来的过剩预期。 黄金是近期的标志性品种，其既受到基本面支撑，也受到宏观扰动的影响。中国、印度以及其他新兴市 场国家的央行购金行为正从资产配置上升为战略性举措，例如我国央行购金连续11个月增长。截至9月 末，央行黄金储备达到7406万盎司，折约2303.5吨。官方需求的持续增长将黄金推到了"时代资产"的新 定位，既包含对美元信用体系的忧虑，也反映了国际政治格局不确定性下的预防性资产重组。此外，我 们注意到在私人投资者份额中，黄金ETF持有量较低，后续仍然具备充足的开拓空间。简言之，央行购 买与未来ETF持有量的增长有望轮动支撑金价上抬。 与黄金紧密联系的是白银，在预防式降息（经济软着陆）预期下，此前处于较高水平的金银比价收窄， 白银相对黄金走强。同时，流动性宽松提振所有资产，且未影响工业需求。白银凭借"金融+工业"双重 属性，弹性更大。历史数据亦印证了这一点：在2008年金融危机和2020年疫情引发的衰退式降息中，金 银比价均飙升至高位。而在1995-96 ...

9月中旬，一则消息从千岛之国印度尼西亚传出，迅速搅动了全球金属市场的神经。 印尼政府的一个特别工作组以涉嫌违反林业许可为由，正式接管了全球最大镍矿之一——PT Weda Bay Nickel（韦达湾镍业公司）约148公顷的土地。尽管面积相对整个矿区而言不算巨大，但这一行动的象 征意义和潜在影响却如同投入平静湖面的一颗巨石，激起了层层涟漪。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）的镍价应声上涨，市场对全球镍供应稳定性的担忧瞬间被放大。然而，这次 查封远非一次简单的环保执法行动。其背后，交织着印尼新政府的政治雄心、全球能源转型对关键矿产 的迫切需求、国际资本的利益博弈，以及中资企业在海外投资所面临的新挑战。 韦达湾镍矿，这个由中法和印尼三国资本共同打造、支撑全球电动汽车电池梦想的巨型项目，此刻正成 为全球资源风暴的核心，并将影响层层延伸…… 不止于"环保"的执法行动 要理解此次查封事件的重量，必须首先认识PT Weda Bay Nickel在全球镍供应链中的关键地位。 韦达湾镍矿区位于印尼北马鲁古省哈勒马赫拉岛，是一个占地约4.5万公顷的巨型项目。它不仅是印尼 最大的镍矿之一，也是全球电动汽车电池供应链的核心上游节点。 该矿的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent disaster at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine has triggered significant supply concerns in the copper market, leading to a sharp increase in copper prices and a reevaluation of market dynamics [2][4][5] Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 8, a mudslide at the Grasberg mine resulted in the loss of two workers and left five missing, causing substantial damage to infrastructure [2] - The Grasberg mine contributes 3.2% of global copper supply and 70% of Freeport's gold production, making its operational halt critical [2] - Following the incident, copper prices surged by 4% to $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell by 8% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Traders reacted instinctively to the supply disruption, with significant price movements observed across the market [4] - Goldman Sachs characterized the event as a "black swan," predicting a potential copper supply loss of 500,000 tons over the next 12-15 months, which could escalate to 2 million tons if recovery is delayed [4] - The current inventory structure is problematic, with 60% of global visible inventory locked in North America due to tariffs, limiting alternative sourcing options for Asian buyers [4] Group 3: Broader Supply Chain Implications - Other mines, such as Peru's Constancia and Panama's Cobre Panama, are also facing operational challenges, contributing to a tightening copper market [5] - Citigroup and Bank of America have raised their 2025 copper price forecasts to $5.2 per pound, an 18% increase from earlier predictions [5] - Freeport has revised its production guidance for 2026 down by 35%, indicating a prolonged recovery timeline that may extend to 2027 for full capacity restoration [5] Group 4: Impact on Industries - The copper supply shortage poses a significant challenge for manufacturers focused on global energy transition, as electric vehicles and wind farms require substantial copper [5] - If the supply gap persists for two years, the electric vehicle sector alone could consume an additional 300,000 tons of refined copper, equivalent to 40% of global tradable inventory [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The capital markets are beginning to reassess the gap between green demand and brown supply, with significant inflows into copper mining ETFs and rising credit default swap rates for Freeport [6] - Analysts highlight that this operational disruption is the most severe for Freeport in 30 years, emphasizing the tangible risks posed by ESG factors and community conflicts [6] - The incident has exposed vulnerabilities in the global metal supply chain, raising concerns about potential systemic risks in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining, the world's third-largest mining company, reported record quarterly performance but warned that geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism pose challenges to its overseas projects, with global uncertainty reaching unprecedented levels [1][3]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's latest financial report indicates a net profit of 28.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55%, with attributable net profit reaching 23.3 billion yuan, up 54% [1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 167.7 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth, and the overall gross margin for mineral products was 60.23%, an increase of 3 percentage points [4]. Production and Business Structure - The company produced 570,000 tons of copper, a 9% increase year-on-year; gold production reached 41 tons, up 16%; and silver production was 224 tons, a 6% increase [5]. - In terms of business structure, copper sales accounted for 27.8% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38.5%, while gold sales represented 49.1% of revenue, benefiting from a significant rise in gold prices, with a gross margin of 38.6% [5]. Resource Strategy - Zijin Mining continues to implement a "exploration + acquisition" dual strategy, adding 2.049 million tons of copper resources and 888 tons of gold resources during the reporting period [5]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including the Akim gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, enhancing its presence in West Africa and Central Asia [6]. Geopolitical Risks - The company highlighted multiple challenges facing the mining industry, including rising costs, trade disruptions, and countries seeking to protect their resources [7]. - Political, policy, and legal differences between countries, along with resource nationalism, may pose challenges to construction and production operations [7]. Market Outlook - In the copper market, the introduction of U.S. copper tariffs, combined with low global inventories, may lead to short-term market volatility as trade flows are reshaped [10]. - For the gold market, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar, and central bank purchases are expected to enhance gold's attractiveness [11]. - The zinc market is facing short-term pressure with a tight balance, as production increases in China but reductions are seen overseas [12]. - In the lithium market, the company warned that disruptions in supply expectations could lead to high price volatility, and the clearing of excess supply will take time [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The demand side shows that the global visible copper inventory has increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. In the short term, the macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, the domestic anti - involution meeting's stance on copper supply constraints can still be expected, and the probability of a significant weakening of demand is low. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 7, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,460 yuan/ton, a 0.23% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,420 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a stable - to - strong trend. The spot price was at a premium of 70 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 110 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The trading range was 78,410 - 78,590 yuan/ton. The market supply was structurally tight, with a decrease in domestic supply. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - Macro: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than expected. The number of continued jobless claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021. The market is trading on easing expectations. There are personnel changes in the Fed. Geopolitically, Russia and the US are preparing for a summit. Overall, the data and personnel changes are fueling easing expectations, which may support copper prices [3] Mining End - Jubilee metals' Zambian copper investment portfolio has made significant progress, and it has all the assets needed for its copper expansion strategy. It has built a diversified platform with three pillars in Zambia [4] Smelting and Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, increasing for two consecutive months and up 9.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. The imports of copper concentrates in July were 2.56 million tons, an 8.9% increase from June, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 17.314 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase [4] Consumption - Wood Mackenzie's Charles Coope pointed out that copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. By 2035, about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity will be needed to meet the demand [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,275 tons to 156,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 201 tons to 20,145 tons. On August 7, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,000 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, with a recommended buy - on - dips hedging strategy and a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage from August 8, 2025, compared with previous periods, including prices of different copper types, inventory in different markets, and arbitrage spreads [25][26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The global visible copper inventory has increased, and downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. The short - term macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 6, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,280 yuan/ton, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the morning, spot copper holders lowered the premium. Mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and some brands dropped to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources had a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment indexes increased. Spot merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to take profits [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy, providing macro - level support for copper prices. Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which may clear geopolitical risks and boost copper prices [3] - **Mine End**: FireFly Metals acquired the Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada in 2023 for 65 million Australian dollars. After the acquisition, it increased drilling, expanding the resource by 20 million tons to 60 million tons with a copper equivalent of about 3% [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The copper market needs to digest the impact of US tariff policies. LME copper prices declined due to inventory increases. High tariffs reduce the expected increase in copper supply outside the US, providing support for prices. Supply disruptions in Chile, such as the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, also affect production. Chile's copper exports to China rebounded in July [4] - **Consumption**: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. Resource nationalism poses risks to new supply, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity is needed by 2035 to meet demand [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 14,275 tons to 156,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,579 tons to 20,346 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 135,900 tons, a change of 16,600 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: Short Put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. However, the global visible copper inventory has increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious. There is no obvious marginal improvement in demand. The uncertainty of the global macro - economy makes the market worried about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year. In the short term, the weakening of macro - level catalysts makes it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is still recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper varieties, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 5, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,460 yuan/ton and closed at 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,070 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The spot offer was at a premium of 80 - 180 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 130 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading range was 78,530 - 78,700 yuan/ton. The spot premium dropped significantly due to the replenishment of imported goods and the weakening of downstream purchasing willingness. It is expected that the spot premium may continue to adjust weakly [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The US trade deficit in June shrank by 16% to $60.2 billion. Trump said he would announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with a maximum drug tariff of 250%, and would significantly increase tariffs on India in 24 hours. A 35% tariff would be imposed if the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US [3]. - **Mine End**: McEwen Mining expects to complete the feasibility study of its Los Azules copper mine in Argentina in two months, aiming to obtain $600 million in financing next year. The mine is expected to start construction in 2027 and be put into production by the end of 2029 or early 2030, with an annual production of 180,000 - 200,000 tons of copper [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Copper is entering a critical decade. Although the importance of copper is increasing, the copper supply chain still faces challenges. The LME inventory decline has triggered regulatory intervention, and mine disruptions have also affected the market. In 2025, the mine supply is expected to increase slightly by about 1.2% to 23.2 million tons [4]. - **Consumption**: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. The rise of resource nationalism poses risks to new supplies, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity will be needed by 2035 to meet demand [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,175 tons to 153,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,581 tons to 18,767 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.359 million tons, an increase of 166,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7].

Core Insights - The development of strategic metals and critical minerals in China is increasingly influenced by global geopolitical competition, with major economies pushing for localization and "de-China" strategies in critical mineral supply chains [6][7][8] - The concentration of critical mineral reserves and production is significant, with the top three countries (CR3) holding over 80% of reserves for more than ten mineral types, such as rare earths (approximately 80%) and gallium (94%) [20][21] - China's critical minerals can be categorized into four types based on supply risk and global dominance: those with global supply advantages, those with low supply risks, those that are highly scarce but manageable, and those with high supply risks [33][34][38] Group 1: Global Competition and Supply Chain - The security of critical mineral supply chains has become a frontline in global geopolitical economic competition, with countries seeking to reduce strategic dependencies and enhance supply chain autonomy [6][7] - The rise of resource nationalism is reshaping the global strategic mineral landscape, as resource-rich countries leverage their bargaining power to renegotiate contracts and increase fees [7][8] - Despite intense geopolitical competition, market forces remain the dominant driver of global mineral investment and mergers, suggesting that collaboration and interdependence will continue to play a significant role [8] Group 2: China's Strategic Minerals - China's strategic minerals can be divided into four categories: those with global supply advantages (e.g., rare earths, graphite), those with low supply risks (e.g., molybdenum, lithium), those that are highly scarce but manageable (e.g., nickel, cobalt), and those with high supply risks (e.g., niobium, platinum group metals) [33][34][38] - The country has implemented export controls on key minerals such as gallium, germanium, and graphite to prevent technology loss and counter external pressures, although a complete export ban could disrupt supply chains [2][48] - China's dominance in the production and processing of critical minerals, particularly in the context of clean energy and electric vehicles, positions it strategically in the global market [14][38] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The demand for critical minerals is expected to surge, with projections indicating that by 2040, the demand for lithium could increase by over 40 times, and demand for other key minerals like graphite and nickel could grow by 20-25 times [14][15] - The interconnectedness of global critical mineral supply chains means that any disruption could lead to significant economic consequences, potentially reversing decades of globalization [8][19] - China's strategic approach to critical minerals, including potential export controls, aims to safeguard its economic security while navigating the complexities of international competition [48][49]

Core Insights - The article discusses China's strategic maneuvering in the rare earth market, particularly in relation to the U.S., highlighting a significant increase in rare earth magnet exports while simultaneously tightening controls on critical materials like antimony and germanium [1][3][5]. Group 1: China's Rare Earth Strategy - In June 2025, China's rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. surged to 352.8 tons, a 6.6-fold increase year-on-year, seemingly fulfilling trade agreements while strategically pressuring U.S. manufacturers [3][10]. - The U.S. faced a dilemma due to China's sudden increase in exports, as it had previously invested hundreds of billions to boost domestic rare earth production in response to soaring prices caused by Chinese export controls [3][10]. - China has not publicly disclosed its rare earth mining quotas for 2025, signaling a tightening of controls, which contrasts with previous practices of regular announcements [6][10]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Defense and Technology - China's export restrictions on antimony and germanium have led to a near-total reduction in exports of these critical materials, which are essential for military, communication, and solar energy applications, directly impacting U.S. defense and renewable energy strategies [5][10]. - The U.S. has seen a dramatic drop in antimony exports to Thailand by 90% and a complete halt to exports to Mexico, indicating a targeted crackdown on smuggling networks that previously allowed U.S. companies to bypass Chinese controls [13][14]. - The Pentagon has acknowledged that some weapon production lines are facing delays due to the supply chain crisis caused by China's restrictions [17][19]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The article suggests that China's rare earth strategy transcends mere trade conflict, positioning it as a key player in reshaping global supply chain rules through a dual approach of civilian supply and military restrictions [10][21]. - The ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition is characterized by the U.S. attempting to pressure China while simultaneously facing its own supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly in the defense sector [19][21]. - The narrative indicates a shift in global power dynamics, with China leveraging its resource control to redefine competition rules, contrasting with historical patterns of resource exploitation [21].

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics, with a notable decline following the U.S.-China tariff war [1][2] - The overall trajectory of nickel prices has shifted downward, indicating potential challenges for the second half of the year, driven by structural oversupply and slowing demand from the electric vehicle sector [1][2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment remains a key driver of nickel price volatility, with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts potentially improving market sentiment and liquidity [2][3] - However, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose significant risks to the demand outlook for nickel [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The nickel industry faces severe oversupply, primarily due to the rapid expansion of low-cost production capacity in Indonesia, which has led to a significant imbalance between supply and demand [4][5] - The demand side is also weakening, with stainless steel production slowing and the growth rate of nickel sulfate for electric vehicle batteries declining, leading to a dual weakness in demand [5][6] Group 4: Price Dynamics - Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure as the cost support shifts from marginal costs to integrated production costs, indicating a potential further decline in price levels [7][8] - The market is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with nickel prices fluctuating between 105,000 and 130,000 yuan per ton, constrained by oversupply and cost dynamics [8][9] Group 5: Strategic Considerations - Industry participants are advised to focus on survival strategies rather than expecting a market recovery, emphasizing cost control and cash flow management amid ongoing oversupply [9][10] - The competitive landscape has shifted from capacity expansion to a focus on cost management, highlighting the need for companies to adapt to the current market conditions [9]