（文章来源：证券时报网） 德邦证券认为，A股慢牛行情未变，持续关注产业催化。当前上证指数再度逼近4000点，且市场成交额 维持在2万亿元左右提供充足流动性，且近期市场融资余额稳步增长突破2.5万亿元，叠加美元兑人民币 汇率破7后中国资产吸引力增加后外资或持续流入，市场流动性环境维持宽松，未来或仍将延续震荡慢 牛走势。 东莞证券认为，周二，上证指数早盘探底回升，午后一度上扬，随后震荡回落；深证成指、创业板指早 盘探底回升，随后震荡回落，午后回升上扬，尾盘有所回落。近期A股市场呈现连续上涨态势，市场期 待已久的跨年行情已逐步启动。值得注意的是，在国内外基本面未发生重大变化的背景下，这一轮反弹 的核心驱动，实则是前期分母端流动性紧缩预期的边际缓和，进而引发全球风险资产的共振修复。与此 同时，年初历来是保险、年金等绝对收益资金开启新一轮配置的关键窗口期。叠加当前政策环境、市场 情绪及部分行业产业逻辑的多重利好，在机构资金的持续支撑下，市场有望推动指数向年内高点区间靠 拢。 财信证券认为，周二，A股大盘早盘低开，但市场维持了较好的承接动能，成交额继续保持在2万亿元 以上水平，支撑大盘震荡回升。盘面上，机器人板块走强，A ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy of selecting cyclical stocks and capitalizing on industry catalysts for investment opportunities [5] - The report highlights the recovery in real estate sales, with a slight increase in sales figures [6] - The storage industry is undergoing significant upgrades, particularly in HBM and 3D DRAM technologies, which are expected to drive market growth [9][10] - The food and beverage sector shows a mixed performance, with revenue recovery in some areas but significant profit differentiation among companies [16][23] - The light manufacturing sector is led by a dominant player in the folding bicycle market, showcasing strong brand, technology, and channel advantages [26] Strategy and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies across various sectors, particularly those benefiting from AI developments and low valuations [7] - Specific investment suggestions include companies in consumer goods, energy, and real estate sectors, as well as those involved in AI and hardware [7] Industry Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the food and beverage industry, noting a 0.6% decline in revenue for the restaurant supply chain sector in H1 2025, while the condiment sector saw a 4.9% revenue increase [16][17] - The snack sector experienced a 2.2% decline in revenue in H1 2025, with significant profit pressure due to rising costs and competitive dynamics [23] - The dairy industry reported a 1.3% revenue increase in H1 2025, with a notable 48.5% profit increase in Q2 2025 [18] Company-Specific Insights - Newland (000997.SZ) reported a 10.54% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by cross-border payment and digital ID services [28] - Zhuolin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) achieved a 20.1% revenue growth in H1 2025, primarily due to its electric drive business [29] - The folding bicycle leader, Dahan Kegong, holds a 26.3% market share in retail volume and a 36.5% market share in retail value in 2024 [26]

Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]