Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - China plans to address the over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are plans to restart some methanol plants in late August, and high port inventories will have a certain restraining effect. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading in the range of 2350 - 2400 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The policy of addressing over - capacity in the petrochemical industry is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, while the port market is affected by weak demand and high inventories. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week [4]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has significantly declined, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region is 671 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2250 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China is 261 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2299 yuan/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian also have corresponding changes [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price is 2372 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants is 10,366, a decrease of 100 compared to the previous period [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis in Jiangsu is - 107, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. There are also corresponding changes in import spreads and regional spreads [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to various reasons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have different operating conditions. Some plants in other countries are also in normal operation or under maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, and Central China are in normal operation, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production increases or shutdowns [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China plans to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is predicted that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland market is relatively balanced in the short - term, but there are expectations of increased production, and high port inventories will also have an impact. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is estimated that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2370 - 2450 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral, with a bearish basis, neutral inventory, bearish on the disk, bullish in terms of main positions, and the expectation is that prices will fluctuate this week [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long factors**: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Decreased methanol start - up in Iran and low port inventories; The 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; Methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Short factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; Concentrated expected arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; Formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE start - up; Coal - to - methanol having a certain profit margin and active shipments; Accumulation of inventories in some production areas due to poor shipments [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton, and there are price data for other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. Futures closing price is 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][8]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 contract is - 95, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Warehouse receipts and effective forecasts: The number of registered warehouse receipts is 10,466, down 100 from the previous value, and the effective forecast is 0 [8]. 3.3.2 Price Spread Structure - Basis is - 123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; Import price spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous value; There are also price spreads between different regions [8]. 3.3.3 Start - up Rates - The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous week. Start - up rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [5]. 3.3.5 Production Profits of Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol profit is 287 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from the previous week; Natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; Coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 448 yuan/ton, up 323 yuan/ton from the previous week [21]. 3.3.6 Downstream Product Data - **Traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 187 yuan/ton, with a load of 25.42%, up 0.90% from the previous week; The production profit of dimethyl ether is 369 yuan/ton, with a load of 8.88%, up 0.82% from the previous week; The production profit of acetic acid is 0 yuan/ton, with a load of 82.42%, up 1.94% from the previous week [31][35][38][42]. - **MTO**: The production profit of MTO is - 570 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the load is 79.84%, up 0.15% from the previous week [47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises have devices under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by enterprise [58]. - **Foreign devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of resuming production or running stably at a certain level. For example, ZPC is reported to have resumed one set, and Marjan is in the process of resuming production since mid - March [59]. - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin devices are under maintenance or running stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices were shut down for maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days, while some other devices such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical are running smoothly [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China plans to address the over - capacity issue in the petrochemical industry through industrial rectification. Policy support will bolster industry sentiment in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. Next week, the domestic methanol market is expected to show a volatile and consolidating trend [5]. - In the inland region, methanol enterprises have low inventory, and the restart of an olefin plant in Henan will balance supply and demand in the short term. However, the restart plans of several methanol plants in late August will increase the operating rate, and high port inventory will also restrict the inland market. Inland methanol is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - In the port area, there is no news of the restart of the main olefin plants, and the port inventory has reached a record high. Weak demand and high inventory will suppress the port market. The port market is expected to maintain high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward movements under strong expectations and weak realities [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - China's plan to rectify the petrochemical industry provides short - term policy support, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The domestic methanol market will be volatile and consolidating. Inland methanol will have narrow - range fluctuations, and the port market will face high volatility due to weak demand and high inventory [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - Prices in different regions showed various changes from August 15th to 22nd. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.29%, while that in Lunan increased by 3.59% [6]. 2.2 Methanol Basis - From August 15th to 22nd, the spot price decreased by 1.29%, the futures price decreased by 0.29%, and the basis decreased by 23 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased by 36, natural - gas - based profit increased by 80, and coke - oven - gas - based profit increased by 323 from August 15th to 22nd [11]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared to last week, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. 2.5 Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price decreased by 0.38%, CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 0.62%, and the spread changed by 1 from August 15th to 22nd [16]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost decreased by 0.43%, and the import spread changed from - 8 to - 28 from August 15th to 22nd [19]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from August 15th to 22nd [24]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased by 27, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased by 85, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit increased by 17, and the load increased by 1.94% [28][30][35]. 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit increased by 96, and the load in East China increased by 0.93%, and in South China increased by 3.38% [39][40]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In East China, the inventory increased by 0.93, and in South China, it increased by 3.38 [40]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts decreased by 2.75%, and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 0 [44]. 3.检修状况 3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 10 - million - ton - per - year plant using coke - oven gas has been under maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly loss of 1,950 tons [46]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol plants have different operating conditions. Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, while others in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally [47]. 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production or maintenance [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 21, equity indices showed mixed performance, CGB futures rose, and commodity futures had a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures relatively strong and agricultural product futures relatively weak [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal, sodium hydroxide, and paraxylene, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), egg, and coking coal [12][13][14]. - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for specific commodities such as silicon metal, PTA, and soybean meal [18][25][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 21, equity indices had some rising and some falling, CGB futures gained, and commodity futures showed a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures strong and agricultural product futures weak [11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal (up 3.7% with 1.3% month - on - month open interest increase), sodium hydroxide (up 3.3% with 23.3% month - on - month open interest increase), and paraxylene (up 2.6% with 17.8% month - on - month open interest increase) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.5% with 5.0% month - on - month open interest increase), egg (down 2.2% with 10.9% month - on - month open interest increase), and coking coal (down 1.5% with 0.1% month - on - month open interest increase) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On August 21, silicon metal increased by 3.7% to 8635 yuan/ton. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate under macro sentiment and coal prices with little fundamental change. Concentrated production resumption may suppress prices [18][20]. - In August, southwest capacity release has significant room, and some major manufacturers may resume production, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows signs of month - on - month improvement, and inventory is expected to accumulate [19][20]. 1.2.2 PTA - On August 21, PTA increased by 2.5% to 4860 yuan/ton, driven by domestic petrochemical news, South Korea's capacity cut, and plant maintenance [25][31]. - China's plan to address overcapacity and South Korea's capacity cut may impact PX imports. Plant maintenance eases short - term supply pressure [26][27][28]. - In the short term, polyester chain prices are expected to have stronger support due to reduced supply, increased demand, and positive news [29][32]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Soybean Meal - On August 21, soybean meal decreased by 1.0% to 3113 yuan/ton. With downstream stocking, the basis may rebound, and long positions at 2900 - 2910 should be held and increased on dips [36][40]. - The American Soybean Association called for an agreement with China. U.S. soybean growth is good, and Brazil's export volume has peaked [37][40]. - Domestically, near - term inventory pressure and long - term supply gap are recognized. Oil factory maintenance eases near - term pressure, and long - term demand may increase [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration will exempt personal income tax for child - rearing subsidies from January 1, 2025 [46]. - The American Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China to ease the crisis of soybean farmers [46]. 2.2 Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will promote the research and development of billet, cement, chicken, etc., and explore short - term options [47][48]. - HKEX will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism based on international experience and local market conditions [47][48].