石化产能过剩

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冠通期货PVC2025年四季报:新增产能投产与反内卷博弈
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 08:26
冠通期货-PVC 2025年四季报 新增产能投产与反内卷博弈 研究咨询部 苏妙达 时间:2025年9月29日 投资有风险,入市需谨慎,本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达:F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 核心观点 1 ⚫ 成本端,电石价格受煤炭价格上涨及有序用电影响而上涨,电石整体供应过剩之下,对PVC价格有一定的支撑,但电石价格继续推涨PVC价格 的空间不大。"以碱补氯"下,以目前的现金流还未引发PVC装置的停产。目前PVC开工率升至历年同期偏高水平。10-11月,PVC将进入秋季 检修旺季,如内蒙君正、山东信发、河南联创等装置计划检修,不过8-9月刚投产的140万吨/年新增产能在四季度将完全释放产能,30万吨/ 年的嘉化能源或将在四季度投产,预计秋检难以抵消新增产能带来的增量。六部门联合发布建材行业稳增长工作方案,只是目前PVC产业还 未有实际政策落地,老装置也大多通过技改升级,当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰,解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策,将影响后续行情,值 得重点关注。2025年1-8月份,房地产仍在调整阶段,投资、新开工、竣工面积同比 ...
冠通每日交易策略-20250924
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 11:18
Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Glass rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell nearly 3%, rapeseed oil fell over 1%, and lithium carbonate and soybean meal fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose 1.69%, 0.94%, 3.90%, and 3.22% respectively. Treasury bond futures of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) fell 0.03%, 0.08%, 0.10%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - As of 15:31 on September 24, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2512 inflowed 1.12 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 inflowed 616 million yuan, and Shanghai Silver 2512 inflowed 424 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 1000 2512 outflowed 3.235 billion yuan, CSI 300 2512 outflowed 2.086 billion yuan, and rapeseed oil 2601 outflowed 434 million yuan [7] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong oscillation. The supply of copper concentrate and refined copper is tight. The TC/RC fees are weakly stable, and smelters' profitability is under pressure. The supply of scrap copper will decrease significantly in September, and the import of refined copper has declined. The demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, but overseas macro factors still impact copper prices, and copper prices fluctuate narrowly [9] - **Crude Oil**: The peak travel season for crude oil is over. The overall oil inventory in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rate has declined. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment in October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The price of Saudi Aramco's flagship product has been cut. The geopolitical situation and demand concerns co - exist, and it is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt开工率 has slightly declined but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in September has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate downward [12] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded, and the enterprise operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded due to the oil price. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that PP will oscillate [14] - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 has declined, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that plastic will oscillate [15][16] - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The export expectation has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure and decline [17] - **Urea**: Urea opened high and moved low, with a slightly strong oscillation. The spot sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still weak. The daily production has recovered, and the demand is mainly for pre - holiday restocking. The inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The upward space of the futures price is limited [18][19]
冠通每日交易策略-20250923
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 10:00
Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) [1] Market Summary Futures Market Performance - As of September 23 closing, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Beans No. 2, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, and caustic soda dropped over 3%; palm oil, polysilicon, and soda ash fell over 2.5%. Shanghai gold and silver rose over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.25%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.26%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) dropped 0.78%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.16%. 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.05%, 5-year (TF) fell 0.13%, 10-year (T) fell 0.21%, and 30-year (TL) fell 0.67% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:15 on September 23, in terms of capital inflow to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 5.797 billion, Shanghai Gold 2512 had 3.357 billion, and CSI 300 2512 had 3.343 billion. In terms of outflow, Rapeseed Oil 2601 had an outflow of 789 million, Soybean Oil 2601 had 489 million, and Palm Oil 2601 had 429 million [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, oscillating weakly. Supply of copper ore and refined copper is tight. As of September 19, China's spot TC was -40.64 dollars/dry ton, RC was -4.05 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, with small and medium - sized ones under profit pressure. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% MoM decrease but a 15.59% YoY increase. Affected by policies, scrap copper supply will decline significantly in September, and electrolytic copper output is expected to drop sharply. In August, imported copper quantity decreased to 307,200 tons, a MoM decrease of 27,300 tons. Demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, reducing SHFE inventory. Fundamentals are tight, demand is resilient, but overseas macro factors still impact Shanghai copper, leading to narrow price fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows a significant unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories, but a larger - than - expected build in refined oil inventories, increasing overall oil product inventories and reducing US refinery operating rates by 1.6 percentage points. Starting from October 2025, OPEC+ will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, increasing pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arabian Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by 1 dollar/barrel. With geopolitical risks not escalating further, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [11][12] Asphalt - Last week, asphalt operating rate dropped 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.686 million tons, a MoM increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a YoY increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). Downstream operating rates rose, but road asphalt operating rate is still at the lowest level in recent years due to funds and weather. National shipments increased 31.10% MoM to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level. Refinery inventory decreased but is still at a low level in recent years. With new production and weather and fund constraints, supply surplus is intensifying, and with the recent decline in crude oil futures prices, asphalt cost support is weakening, and its futures price is expected to decline [13] PP - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. On September 23, new maintenance devices increased, and PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production remained around 24.5%. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, increased US distillate inventories, and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices fell. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Although downstream is entering the peak season, current peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there is no large - scale centralized procurement. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Plastic - On September 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained around 85%, at a neutral level. PE downstream operating rate rose 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, with increasing orders and raw material inventories but at a slower pace. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's rate cut and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices declined. New capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has decreased. Although the agricultural film peak season is coming, the peak - season effect is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [16] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. PVC operating rate decreased 2.98 percentage points to 76.96%, at a neutral - high level in recent years. In the peak season, PVC downstream operating rate continued to increase, exceeding last year's level but still low compared to other years. India postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. Chinese PVC exports are expected to weaken in Q4, but export orders have increased recently. Social inventory continued to rise and is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New capacity has been put into operation. With cost support strengthening and pre - holiday downstream stocking, but new production resuming and a low basis, PVC is expected to face downward pressure [18] Urea - Urea opened low and moved high, closing flat. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in sales after price cuts. Urea daily output has returned to over 190,000 tons. Before the holidays, downstream buyers stock up at low prices, and industrial demand is mainly for rigid needs. The compound fertilizer factory operating rate increased but at a slower pace, with high finished - product inventory. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than in previous years. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and it is necessary to monitor the progress and intensity of pre - holiday stocking [19][20]
冠通每日交易策略-20250901
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 12:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].
大越期货甲醇早报-20250828
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 07:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - China plans to address the over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are plans to restart some methanol plants in late August, and high port inventories will have a certain restraining effect. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading in the range of 2350 - 2400 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The policy of addressing over - capacity in the petrochemical industry is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, while the port market is affected by weak demand and high inventories. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week [4]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has significantly declined, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region is 671 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2250 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China is 261 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2299 yuan/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian also have corresponding changes [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price is 2372 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants is 10,366, a decrease of 100 compared to the previous period [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis in Jiangsu is - 107, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. There are also corresponding changes in import spreads and regional spreads [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to various reasons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have different operating conditions. Some plants in other countries are also in normal operation or under maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, and Central China are in normal operation, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production increases or shutdowns [58].
大越期货甲醇早报-20250827
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China plans to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is predicted that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland market is relatively balanced in the short - term, but there are expectations of increased production, and high port inventories will also have an impact. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is estimated that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2370 - 2450 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral, with a bearish basis, neutral inventory, bearish on the disk, bullish in terms of main positions, and the expectation is that prices will fluctuate this week [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long factors**: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Decreased methanol start - up in Iran and low port inventories; The 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; Methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Short factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; Concentrated expected arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; Formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE start - up; Coal - to - methanol having a certain profit margin and active shipments; Accumulation of inventories in some production areas due to poor shipments [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton, and there are price data for other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. Futures closing price is 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][8]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 contract is - 95, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Warehouse receipts and effective forecasts: The number of registered warehouse receipts is 10,466, down 100 from the previous value, and the effective forecast is 0 [8]. 3.3.2 Price Spread Structure - Basis is - 123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; Import price spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous value; There are also price spreads between different regions [8]. 3.3.3 Start - up Rates - The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous week. Start - up rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [5]. 3.3.5 Production Profits of Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol profit is 287 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from the previous week; Natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; Coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 448 yuan/ton, up 323 yuan/ton from the previous week [21]. 3.3.6 Downstream Product Data - **Traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 187 yuan/ton, with a load of 25.42%, up 0.90% from the previous week; The production profit of dimethyl ether is 369 yuan/ton, with a load of 8.88%, up 0.82% from the previous week; The production profit of acetic acid is 0 yuan/ton, with a load of 82.42%, up 1.94% from the previous week [31][35][38][42]. - **MTO**: The production profit of MTO is - 570 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the load is 79.84%, up 0.15% from the previous week [47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises have devices under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by enterprise [58]. - **Foreign devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of resuming production or running stably at a certain level. For example, ZPC is reported to have resumed one set, and Marjan is in the process of resuming production since mid - March [59]. - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin devices are under maintenance or running stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices were shut down for maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days, while some other devices such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical are running smoothly [60].
苯乙烯供应高位 需求疲软 限制上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 09:48
Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures are experiencing weak fluctuations due to a lack of upward momentum despite slight improvements in cost support and high domestic production levels, leading to inventory accumulation expectations [1][3] Supply Side - No new production or shutdowns have been reported in the short term, maintaining high domestic production levels [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by news of China's plans to address petrochemical overcapacity and South Korea's plans to reduce naphtha cracking capacity, which has boosted market optimism [3] Demand Side - Demand remains stable with slight increases in PS and minor decreases in ABS, while EPS shows limited changes; however, downstream purchasing sentiment is unlikely to improve significantly [1] - The overall operating rate of downstream 3S products has increased, contributing to a more optimistic market outlook [3] Market Dynamics - Despite the increase in futures prices, spot prices of styrene have only shown narrow fluctuations, with increases lagging behind futures due to rising port arrivals and high visible inventory levels [3] - Downstream orders have not shown significant improvement, and inventory levels for 3S products continue to accumulate, indicating ongoing pressure on styrene inventories [3] Future Outlook - The supply-demand fundamentals will remain the primary factors influencing styrene futures prices, with key variables including the production schedule of new upstream and downstream facilities, unexpected changes in operational status, and the timing of downstream order placements [3]
大越期货甲醇周报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China plans to address the over - capacity issue in the petrochemical industry through industrial rectification. Policy support will bolster industry sentiment in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. Next week, the domestic methanol market is expected to show a volatile and consolidating trend [5]. - In the inland region, methanol enterprises have low inventory, and the restart of an olefin plant in Henan will balance supply and demand in the short term. However, the restart plans of several methanol plants in late August will increase the operating rate, and high port inventory will also restrict the inland market. Inland methanol is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - In the port area, there is no news of the restart of the main olefin plants, and the port inventory has reached a record high. Weak demand and high inventory will suppress the port market. The port market is expected to maintain high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward movements under strong expectations and weak realities [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - China's plan to rectify the petrochemical industry provides short - term policy support, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The domestic methanol market will be volatile and consolidating. Inland methanol will have narrow - range fluctuations, and the port market will face high volatility due to weak demand and high inventory [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - Prices in different regions showed various changes from August 15th to 22nd. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.29%, while that in Lunan increased by 3.59% [6]. 2.2 Methanol Basis - From August 15th to 22nd, the spot price decreased by 1.29%, the futures price decreased by 0.29%, and the basis decreased by 23 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased by 36, natural - gas - based profit increased by 80, and coke - oven - gas - based profit increased by 323 from August 15th to 22nd [11]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared to last week, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. 2.5 Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price decreased by 0.38%, CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 0.62%, and the spread changed by 1 from August 15th to 22nd [16]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost decreased by 0.43%, and the import spread changed from - 8 to - 28 from August 15th to 22nd [19]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from August 15th to 22nd [24]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased by 27, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased by 85, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit increased by 17, and the load increased by 1.94% [28][30][35]. 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit increased by 96, and the load in East China increased by 0.93%, and in South China increased by 3.38% [39][40]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In East China, the inventory increased by 0.93, and in South China, it increased by 3.38 [40]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts decreased by 2.75%, and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 0 [44]. 3.检修状况 3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 10 - million - ton - per - year plant using coke - oven gas has been under maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly loss of 1,950 tons [46]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol plants have different operating conditions. Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, while others in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally [47]. 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production or maintenance [48].