Report Overview - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Market Summary - As of the close on November 24, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Methanol rose over 3%, glass nearly 3%, and ethylene glycol (EG), corn, cotton yarn, and polysilicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and pure benzene fell over 2%, and styrene (EB), coking coal, palm oil, and urea dropped over 1% [5][6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84%. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.06%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.15% [6]. - As of 15:18 on November 24, in terms of capital flow, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an inflow of 1.456 billion yuan, Shanghai Silver 2602 had an inflow of 260 million yuan, and Shanghai Copper 2601 had an inflow of 240 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 7.289 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 4.312 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 2.562 billion yuan [6]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened low and trended higher, showing a strong oscillation. Data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, but with a data vacuum before the next Fed meeting, the uncertainty of rate cut expectations is high, and the market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively large, causing the US dollar index to continue to rebound [8]. - Nvidia's strong earnings boosted optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand. Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in Q2 next year. Refined copper imports decreased month-on-month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have also been accumulating [8]. - The 770th document has not been implemented, causing cautious operations in recycled copper rod enterprises. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month-on-month decline of over 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [8]. - Overall, the Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a stalemate, and the market believes the probability of a rate cut in December is small, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the off-season demand and increasing SHFE inventories have weakened market confidence. Short-term copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to Fed rate cut expectations [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, dropping nearly 3% during the day. As of October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 21, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In October, China's energy storage battery production was 54.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, year-on-year increases of 21.1% and 20% [11]. - The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and demand. Although there is news of the resumption of production at the Jiuxiaowo mine, the authenticity is uncertain. Until the actual negative impact is realized, there is support at the bottom of the market [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The end of the peak demand season, combined with increased production and exports, has led to a supply surplus in the crude oil market [12][13]. - EIA data shows that refined oil inventories increased more than expected, but due to increased net exports, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected. US crude oil production is near a record high. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [12][13]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand due to the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US manufacturing index, and the unclear prospects of US interest rate cuts. The supply surplus in the crude oil market has become a consensus, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year-on-year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) [14]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed performance. The national asphalt shipments increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. Asphalt refinery inventory ratios remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years [14]. - With the decline in crude oil prices and the end of road construction in the north, demand is expected to weaken further. With the stable production of some refineries, the asphalt operating rate will increase. Asphalt futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly compared to last year [16]. - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%. The production ratio of standard-grade PP increased to around 29%. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years [16]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Downstream demand is in the late peak season, and orders are limited. The lack of large-scale purchases and the absence of anti-competition policies have led to limited market support. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with stable orders, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film peak season is ending, and demand in the north is starting to decline [17]. - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and traders are cautious about the future market. Without anti-competition policies, and with the supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastic prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [17][19]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased slightly to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly, remaining at a relatively low level [20]. - India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC and the likely cancellation of anti-dumping duties have alleviated concerns about exports to India, and export orders increased last week. Social inventories increased slightly last week and remain high, indicating significant inventory pressure [20]. - In 2025, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. With positive chlor-alkali comprehensive profits and new production capacity coming online, the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly recently [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and trended higher, with a decline during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased, and the self-pickup price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal also decreased [21]. - In October, China's coal imports decreased year-on-year. The utilization rate of coking coal mine production capacity increased slightly. As of November 16, the cumulative import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was large, and the daily customs clearance vehicles may increase next week [21][22]. - Under the winter coal supply and price stabilization policy, the tight supply expectation is partially offset. Mine inventories have increased significantly, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Steel mill operating rates and molten iron production increased this week, but profits are weakening. There is potential bullishness in mine production cuts at the end of the year, so be cautious about potential price rebounds [22]. Urea - The futures price opened low and trended lower, showing a downward oscillation. The spot price of urea increased due to the continuous rebound of futures prices and improved downstream demand, but since the weekend, downstream resistance to high prices has led to weak order receipts and stable prices [23]. - Before the seasonal shutdown of gas-based devices, the daily output of upstream factories is expected to fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed, and downstream demand needs verification. Last week, demand was strong, and orders were good. Northeast fertilizer preparation has begun, and compound fertilizer factory operating rates have rebounded [23]. - After the price rebound, downstream feedback has been poor, and order receipts have been weak since the weekend. Domestic demand cannot support high prices, and the Indian tender price has not boosted the market. However, exports continue, and there is still demand support from off-season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [23].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 20 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 免责声明： 期市综述 截止 10 月 29 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。LU 燃油、 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.14个百分点至53.28%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率环比回落0.12个百分点至44.24%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月19日，新 增广东石化一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至81%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例 上涨至25%左右。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，美国政府停摆 结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将2025年三季度全球石油从短 缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，原油供应过剩格局进一步成为共识，原油价格涨幅有限。供应 上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下游进入旺季尾 声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以 刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问 题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。此前成本上涨及下游旺季推动PP价格反弹，但供需格局整体未 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Due to the unchanged overall supply - demand pattern, plastics are expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the near term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price has limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from shortage to surplus by OPEC. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, its performance is not as expected, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract decreased by 0.95% with increased positions, closing at 6785 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 6049 lots to 548344 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7020 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $735/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile movements in the near term. The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and the inventory reduction of petrochemicals is normal. The supply - side has new production capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices, and the cost - side crude oil price has declined [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 24%. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil supply surplus has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in oil prices. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year put into operation at PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.39%, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 8169 lots to 628,423 lots [2]. - **Spot**: PP spot prices in most regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 6260 to 6570 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as the old line of CNOOC Daxie were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, a neutral - low level [7]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 7th, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [7]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10 per ton to $720 per ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and uncertain cost - related factors [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 12, the restart of maintenance devices at Hengli Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastic operating rate to about 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing orders, the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is moderately high. The crude oil price fluctuated within a narrow range. New production capacities were put into operation, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The industry lacks effective anti - involution policies [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with increased positions, closing at 6788 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous day, and the position increased by 2586 lots to 586919 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9430 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6900 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 88%, at a moderate level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. The agricultural film was in the peak season with stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a moderately high level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 730 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - The plastic operating rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to around 89.5%, reaching a neutral level [14] - The PP operating rate rose by 3.5 percentage points to around 83.5%, at a slightly below - neutral level [14] 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [20] - As of the week of November 7, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [20] 3. Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract rose to 298 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [25] 4. Plastic and PP库存 - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is currently at a neutral level compared to recent years [29]

Report Overview - The report is a PVC daily report from Guantong Futures, released on November 7, 2025, forecasting a weak and volatile trend for PVC in the near term [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is facing challenges with increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the near term due to factors such as the increase in PVC production capacity, the slow recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international policies on exports [1] Market Analysis Supply - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region stabilized after a decline at the beginning of the week. The PVC operating rate increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang, and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua, have come into operation or are in the process of production [1][5] Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year. The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing also declined. As of the week of November 2, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.83% week - on - week, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [1][6] Inventory - As of the week of November 6, PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% week - on - week to 1.0416 million tons, 26.42% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory is still relatively high [7] International Policy Impact - India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export outlook for Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, exports in September were still good, and export orders have not weakened significantly yet [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The PVC2601 contract decreased by 0.26% with an increase in positions, closing at 4,611 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading range was between 4,610 yuan/ton and 4,638 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 23,646 lots to 1,338,957 lots [2] Basis - On November 7, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,560 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,630 yuan/ton. The basis was - 51 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on November 6, 2025, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like p-xylene, coking coal, and PTA had significant increases, while container shipping to Europe and asphalt declined [6][7]. - The market is influenced by various factors such as international policies (e.g., OPEC+ production decisions), supply - demand dynamics of different commodities, and macro - economic data (e.g., US employment data) [7][9][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The copper market is in a tight supply - demand balance. Supply is affected by negative smelting processing fees, potential supply disruptions from the Indonesian copper mine accident, and planned smelter overhauls. Demand is somewhat suppressed by rising prices. The US employment data affects the macro - expectation, and the strong dollar restricts the upside of copper prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply is increasing as upstream production is active, with high开工 rates. Demand is strong, especially from the energy - storage battery sector, leading to significant inventory reduction. However, due to the uncertainty of official复产 news, caution is advised when chasing the rising price [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak has ended, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. Geopolitical factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the US - Venezuela situation also affect the market, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Asphalt - Supply has a slight decrease, with开工 rates at a relatively low level. Demand is affected by project construction in the north and price inquiries in the south. With the influence of crude oil price fluctuations and the release of low - price resources, the asphalt futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. PP - The downstream开工 rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is affected by new capacity and reduced maintenance. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and with the influence of crude oil and the absence of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [15][16]. Plastic - The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is relatively low. New capacity is added, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected. With the influence of crude oil and the lack of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [17]. PVC - Supply is increasing with high开工 rates and new capacity. The export expectation is weakening, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in adjustment, and with the end of maintenance and high futures warehouse receipts, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [18]. Coking Coal - Supply is tightening due to production restrictions in Shanxi. The inventory is being transferred downstream. The demand from steel mills is affected by environmental protection, resulting in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to be in high - level consolidation [19][20]. Urea - Supply is increasing with high daily production. Demand is also increasing as the downstream replenishes at low prices. The market atmosphere is improving, and the price is expected to have a small - range rebound and narrow - range oscillation [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will continue to oscillate weakly in the near term. Currently, the plastics industry has not seen the implementation of actual anti - involution policies, and the anti - involution and elimination of old devices, which aim to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity, are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season and demand is expected to increase, the current peak season is under - performing, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders have slightly decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is fluctuating slightly. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract increased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,852 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,912 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,879 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume increased by 554 lots to 533,139 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,840 - 7,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,000 - 9,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,070 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31st, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 735,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract oscillated around $65 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton on a month - on - month basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton on a month - on - month basis [4].