1. Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is significantly affected by the Middle East situation, especially the oil price fluctuations [2][3][4][5][6][7] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and the market sentiment is complex [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. International oil price decline dragged down market sentiment, and downstream观望 increased [2] - For polyethylene, domestic production reduction devices increased, but cost support weakened due to the easing of the Middle East situation [2] - For polypropylene, high - price transactions faced pressure, and downstream enterprises' profit was squeezed, with weak order - taking and low willingness to start work [2] 3.2 Polyester - Affected by the US - Iran situation, PX and PTA prices declined, and the industry's efficiency decreased. The load of both decreased, and the downstream consumption followed up slowly [3] - The load of ethylene glycol decreased, and the price and monthly spread declined due to the expected decline in oil prices [3] - The load of short - fiber decreased slightly, and the downstream weaving load increase slowed down, mainly digesting raw materials [3] - The efficiency of bottle chips improved, the weekly load increased significantly, but the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The Middle East situation cooled slightly, and the geopolitical risk premium was withdrawn. The domestic pure benzene start - up load decreased, and the inventory decreased [4] - The main contract of styrene futures closed down, but the overall situation was relatively strong and volatile [4] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market adjusted due to the expected geopolitical easing. The import volume decreased, and the inventory in the East China port continued to decline [5] - The spot price of Shandong urea was stable with a slight increase. The domestic device start - up decreased slightly, and the inventory of urea production enterprises continued to decline [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from high levels due to the expected easing of the geopolitical situation. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased significantly [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The inventory continued to decline, and the export inquiry was good [6] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated within the day. The industry inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. The supply continued to expand [7] - Glass fluctuated weakly within the day. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down. The inventory pressure of the middle and upper reaches was relatively large [7]

Group 1 - The main point of the article indicates that the main contract for silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a capital outflow of 702 million yuan, while the contract price increased by 0.47% to 22,572 yuan per kilogram, with a reduction in open interest by 9,138 lots, reflecting a decline of 5.00% [1][2] - The current market for silver is positioned at a relatively high level, suggesting it may be in a downward channel phase according to cyclical market trends, which could persist [5] - The institutional futures research report presents an overall neutral outlook on the silver market, indicating a balanced perspective on future price movements [5] Group 2 - The capital flow feature of the Jin Investment Network's Tianyan Dingpan is designed to help monitor real-time capital inflows and outflows across various commodities, serving as an important indicator of market sentiment and trends [5] - Observing changes in capital inflow and outflow can provide insights into market activity levels and investor trading intentions, with inflows typically signaling upward market potential and outflows indicating potential downward pressure [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For螺纹、热卷**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, with low output and demand. Inventory is expected to increase rapidly from a low level, and the market's demand expectation for next year is relatively weak. The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range, showing a downward trend. However, due to the low current valuation, the downside space is limited [2]. - **For铁矿石**: The market is still in the off - season, and the iron - making water production is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses more on the spring consumption demand. The global shipment has rebounded from a low level, but is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price is under pressure to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. 螺纹、热卷** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range and is approaching the previous low, with potential support. But it is considered to be in a downward trend without a reversal signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2]. **II. 铁矿石** - **Demand**: The production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses on spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have rebounded from a low level but are expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is under pressure to decline, and on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, potentially forming a downward effective breakout [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions with a light position [4]. **III. Industry News** - As of the week ending February 11, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of key steel products in China decreased by 429,100 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 266,200 tons, the social inventory increased by 533,100 tons, the total inventory increased by 799,300 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 635,300 tons [6]. - On February 11, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was $89.6 per ton, and all 64,000 tons were sold at a price of $95.1 per ton (ex - tax) [6].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 17904, with a recent opening at 19209 CNY/kg and a current price of 18779 CNY/kg, reflecting a decline of 15.01% [1] - The highest price reached was 19998 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 17900 CNY/kg, indicating a volatile trading environment [1] - The silver futures market is showing signs of a short-term oscillating trend [1] Group 2 - Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated ahead of scheduled talks in Oman, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to convene a security cabinet meeting [2] - The meeting, originally set for Sunday, was moved to Thursday, indicating urgency in addressing security concerns [2] - Discussions included not only Iran but also the financial status of the Palestinian Authority, highlighting a broader scope of security issues [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 3.05% to 1773.5 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - Indonesian mining officials have announced a substantial reduction in coal production, leading to a halt in spot coal exports, with some companies facing a production quota cut of 40%-70% for 2026 compared to 2025 [2] - The first round of price increases for coking coal has been fully implemented, with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness from traders following the price rise [2] Group 2 - According to Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures, environmental policies are restricting production at coking enterprises, and with upstream coal mines shutting down for the Spring Festival, the overall supply of coking coal is tightening [4] - Demand from downstream steel mills is weakening, with increased maintenance leading to low pig iron production and a slight accumulation of coking coal inventory as pre-holiday restocking nears completion [4] - Overall, the coking coal market is expected to experience a period of fluctuation due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on steel-coke profit margins and industry shutdowns [4]

Group 1 - The main contract for styrene futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 7842.00 yuan, with a current price of 7743.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.11% [1] Group 2 - According to Ruida Futures, the short-term EB2603 is expected to fluctuate with strong oil prices, while the domestic styrene supply is anticipated to recover from low levels as two major 90,000-ton units are expected to restart [2] - Galaxy Futures noted that some styrene units are scheduled to restart in February, indicating a return of supply, while the demand for styrene is expected to seasonally decline as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - The overall supply-demand balance for styrene in February is projected to shift from tight to loose, influenced by the seasonal decrease in demand for EPS, PS, and UPR [2]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 22,136, with a recent price of 22,661, reflecting a 7.19% increase, and a high of 23,188 and a low of 21,919 during the session [1] - The silver futures market is showing a short-term oscillating trend after confirming a bottom [1] - The main contract for silver is expected to operate within a range of 20,600 to 23,700, with key resistance levels at 24,500 and 27,500 [2] Group 2 - The latest attacks in Moscow occurred after a brief ceasefire period, which was agreed upon at the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, aimed at pausing attacks on energy infrastructure [2] - The ongoing conflict has intensified, with Moscow increasing strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, severely impacting the national power grid [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russian forces of using the ceasefire proposal to stockpile missiles and prepare for attacks during the coldest months of the year [2]

Report Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Urea | ★★☆ | | Methanol | ★★★ | | Pure Benzene | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★☆☆ | | Plastic | ★★☆ | | PVC | ★☆☆ | | Caustic Soda | ★★★ | | PX | ★★★ | | PTA | ★★★ | | Ethylene Glycol | ★★★ | | Short Fiber | ☆☆☆ | | Glass | ★★★ | | Soda Ash | ☆☆☆ | | Bottle Chip | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★★★ | [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market is weak due to factors such as falling oil prices, reduced downstream demand, and supply pressure [2] - The polyester market faces challenges like price drops, inventory accumulation, and weak demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - The pure benzene - styrene market has a weakening fundamental outlook with cost support weakening and supply increasing [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a range - bound urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows a PVC with a potentially strong trend and a weak caustic soda market [7] - The soda ash - glass market has a soda ash facing supply - demand surplus and a glass with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8] Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures: Falling oil prices lead to a pessimistic market sentiment, and reduced downstream demand weakens the support for propylene [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: There is supply pressure in the polyethylene market, and weak downstream demand and high - price transaction difficulties exist in the polypropylene market [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fall due to oil prices. There are different outlooks in different periods, with current weak reality and potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory increases, but there is a possibility of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, while long - term pressure remains [3] - Short Fiber: Good short - term supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders lead to a price decline following raw materials [3] - Bottle Chip:开工率下降，加工差有所修复，但长期产能压力仍在，短期随原料回落，中期关注库存表现 [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot price in East China rises, and there are expectations of increased utilization of downstream comprehensive production capacity, but the fundamental outlook is weakening [5] - Styrene: Futures price falls due to cost pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: Futures price drops, with weak coastal demand and difficult port de - stocking, and short - term行情受地缘风险影响较大 [6] - Urea: Spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Night - session trading shows a strong trend, with cost support and good export demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation due to weak cost support and high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Shows an oscillating trend, with high supply and inventory pressure, and a long - term supply - demand surplus [8] - Glass: Shows a slightly strong oscillating trend, with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8]

Market Overview - On February 2, 2026, the domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with major contracts such as silver and platinum hitting the limit down, while palladium fell over 15% [3][7] - Gold and tin dropped more than 9%, copper (both domestic and international) and lithium carbonate fell over 5%, and nickel decreased by over 4% [3][7] Price Movements - Significant declines were observed in various commodities, including: - Silver (沪银2604M) at 24,832, down 17.01% [8] - Aluminum (铝2606 M) at 553.20, down 15.84% [8] - Nickel (沪镍2603 M) at 102,000, down 5.85% [8] - Lithium carbonate (碳酸锂2605 M) at 145,180, down 5.72% [8] - In contrast, caustic soda (烧碱) saw an increase of over 2% [3][7] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volumes and open interest showed notable changes, with: - Silver (沪银2604M) having a trading volume of 67,1576, down by 5,087 [8] - Aluminum (铝2606 M) with a trading volume of 982,104.10, showing an increase in open interest by 62 [8] - Copper (国际铜2603 m) with a trading volume of 6,461, down by 1 [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern remains supply - exceeding - demand. Although the chemical market sentiment has improved recently and the short - term trend may be oscillatingly strong, the upward space is limited in the long - term, and there is no expectation for going long. It's not advisable to blindly place long orders before the core contradiction of oversupply is fundamentally resolved [8]. - For glass, the industry is in a new stage of capacity clearance. Short - term supply contraction will support prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the upward movement of the market. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong before substantial positive factors are realized. It is recommended to gradually reduce short positions and pay attention to supply - demand changes and raw material price support [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On January 29, the main soda ash contract SA605 rose significantly, closing at 1,224 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.59% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 6,800 lots [7]. - This week, the soda ash market faces both increasing supply and shrinking demand. There is a slight inventory accumulation, and the trend is expected to continue. The downstream float glass industry is weak, and the real - estate market has not improved substantially, so the demand for soda ash is weak. With the cold - repair of float glass production lines, the consumption support for soda ash further weakens [8]. Glass - On January 29, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 turned from decline to rise. The spot price of glass is stable but weak, and the industry is generally in a loss state. The supply of float glass is tightening, and the cold - repair of production lines is accelerating. The inventory pressure is high, and the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. The market is in a capacity clearance stage, and short - term supply contraction supports prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the market [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][17][20]