Group 1 - The core index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the Sci-Tech 50 Index, surged nearly 6% to surpass 1200 points, reaching a new high in over three years [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Yuntian Lifei and Pinggao Co. hit the 20% daily limit, while Haiguang Information and Shengmei Shanghai rose over 17%, and Cambrian Technology increased by over 13% [2] - According to Zheshang Securities, nearly half of the companies represented by the Sci-Tech 100 and Sci-Tech 200 indices are showing signs of reversal as of Q1 2025, indicating a bottoming out of profits for larger market cap companies [2] Group 2 - The analysis draws parallels to the bull market in the ChiNext board from 2013 to 2015, which was divided into three phases: expectation-driven, industry prosperity-driven, and capital sentiment-driven [2] - The main upward phase of the current market is expected to be driven by improvements in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, with the Sci-Tech Board entering its main upward phase since June of this year [2] - Current fund allocation levels indicate that the Sci-Tech Board is at a similar configuration level to the early stages of the ChiNext bull market, suggesting potential for further upward movement [2]

Group 1 - The strong upward trend of state-owned banks may not have ended, as there is potential for multiple phases of market performance driven by macro narratives and industry prosperity [1][2][15] - Historical trends show that macro-driven industries, such as liquor and white goods, can experience multiple significant price increases over time, while industry prosperity-driven trends typically exhibit a single strong upward movement followed by a consolidation phase [1][14] Group 2 - Currently, state-owned banks do not show signs of overheating, with transaction volume deviation from historical norms at a maximum of 63.59% for 2025, compared to over 100% for other industries during their strong upward trends [3][29] - Forward valuation metrics indicate that the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for state-owned banks is only 28.72%, significantly lower than the peaks seen in liquor and white goods sectors [3][33] - Institutional holdings in state-owned banks remain low, fluctuating between 1% and 2%, which suggests a lower risk of counterparties compared to other sectors [3][35] Group 3 - Recent market fluctuations, including significant downward movements in state-owned banks on June 27 and July 11, are not uncommon in strong upward trends and do not necessarily indicate a trend reversal [4][36] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with A-shares showing resilience against external shocks, and the upward trend in indices is expected to continue [5][39]

沈思越 连一席 遥远 本轮春季躁动当中投资者有两大烦恼：一是港股走牛、A股震荡，两地市场的分化造成机构产品 业绩分化；二是国内宏观波动在降低，市场从三年宏观大年步入宏观小年，但不少原有应对剧烈 宏观波动的杠铃型策略很难在市场快速上涨时完成调仓。从市场分化的角度来看，本轮以新经济 为主线的春季躁动当中，互联网、硬科技、智能车和创新药当中最优质的核心资产聚集在港股， 这是港股走牛而A股仍在震荡的本质原因。约6 0%的公募资管产品不具备港股通权限，即使具备 权限，测算港股可投比例距离基金合同上限平均还有约2 6 . 5%的上升空间，业绩分化和赛马机制 在驱动配置型持仓加速从A股转向港股，加剧两地市场走势分化。从策略范式的角度来看，过去 三年是宏观大年，宏观波动和政策应对是驱动市场的主要变量，杠铃策略成为应对频繁宏观扰动 的方式；反观今年，政策方向和目标清晰，国内宏观波动在降低，市场在向宏观小年过渡，宏观 和政策的边际变化很难再成为驱动市场方向和结构的因素，产业景气驱动的思路在接棒杠铃策 略。从应对而言，端侧AI和高能量密度电池是A股相对具有独占性的产业主题，且我们预计二季 度将会迎来密集催化；A股传统核心资产出清在 ...