【导读】第26届瑞银大中华研讨会（GCC）精华观点释出 2026年1月13日至14日，第26届瑞银大中华研讨会（GCC）在上海举办。本届研讨会以"新前沿：识变 局，谋增长"为主题，探讨中国中期经济走势如何与全球增长、贸易格局及资本市场周期相互作用；聚 焦持续突破技术边界的前沿领域，深入探讨中国在人工智能产业链中的布局。 "中国股市将迎来另一个'丰年'" 瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管房东明、瑞银中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪、瑞银证券中国股票策略分析 师孟磊就2026年中国股票市场前景和投资机遇做了分享。 基于宏观环境改善、政策有力支持、市场结构优化以及持续的资金流入等多重因素，他们对2026年中国 股票市场表现持乐观态度。 在板块配置上，他明确看好人工智能（尤其是硬件与半导体设备）、互联网龙头、券商、光伏以及具有 强劲"出海"能力的公司。上半年市场机会可能更丰富，而下半年则需要盈利增长的实际兑现来支撑。 孟磊聚焦于A股市场分析。他预测2026年A股盈利增长约8%，且增长质量将优于去年。驱动力将从金融 板块转向更广泛的非金融企业，名义GDP与PPI的回升是关键。 房东明首先从宏观视角指出，去年股市强劲反弹，实现多项里 ...

中证报中证网讯(记者张韵)12月18日晚间，申万宏源研究电子行业首席分析师杨海晏在做客中国证券 报"中证点金汇"直播间谈及2026年科技投资展望时表示，明年对高端芯片领域的发展和投资机会抱有较 高的期待，国内企业在高端芯片领域的存在感或越来越明显。她认为，基于人工智能(AI)算力训练、推 理及端侧应用的广大需求，明年将有望看到在GPU(图形处理器)、交换机芯片、端侧AI、光芯片等领 域，出现越来越多公司能够提供符合市场期待的产品。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently in a short-term repair process, but the strength of the recovery remains weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering near the 10-day moving average without sufficient incremental capital support [1] - The market has shifted from a unilateral rebound to a complex oscillation phase, with upward momentum significantly weakening due to a lack of sustained incremental capital and fundamental resonance [1] Sector Analysis - The adjustment in the technology growth sector is not yet over, and its direction is crucial for the overall market sentiment [1] - Recent rebounds in the technology sector are primarily driven by policy support and overseas market influences, indicating a recovery in risk appetite, but the adjustment cycle is still ongoing [1] Investment Strategy - Major brokerage firms are optimistic about the cross-year market outlook, identifying December as a key window for positioning ahead of the "spring market" effect, which typically lasts about 20 trading days from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [2] - Two critical time points to watch are the Federal Reserve's meeting after December 10, which may influence global liquidity expectations, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which will set the tone for China's economic policy for the following year [2] Short-term Market Sentiment - The current market continues to adjust, with all three major indices breaking below the 5-day moving average and increased trading volume compared to the previous day [3] - Some popular sectors are showing signs of capital outflow, leading to a decrease in market risk appetite, which may increase the likelihood of short-term downward fluctuations [3]

Group 1: Vanke Debt Situation - Vanke's debt situation is under scrutiny as a report suggests that the local government is considering a "market-oriented" approach to handle its debt [1][2] - A working group previously estimated a funding gap of approximately 150 billion RMB (about 21.1 billion USD) for Vanke, with total interest-bearing liabilities reported at around 362.9 billion RMB (51.1 billion USD) as of September 30 [3] - Vanke faces imminent challenges with two domestic bonds maturing in December, totaling 2 billion RMB and 3.7 billion RMB, respectively [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The market is reacting to rumors that Shenzhen has sought assistance from Beijing regarding Vanke's debt situation, leading to speculation about potential outcomes [4] - The report indicates that the Shenzhen government can no longer support Vanke independently, suggesting a need for intervention from higher authorities [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Stock Performance - The TMT sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with the rolling 40-day excess return narrowing to a historical low of around -7.5%, indicating a potential bottoming out [10] - Recent reports highlight a strong performance in the optical communication sector, driven by rumors of Google placing a substantial order, which has positively impacted related stocks [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy outlook for 2026 by CITIC Securities emphasizes the profound impact of the AI industry revolution, likening it to the Industrial Revolution, and suggests a long-term perspective is necessary for analysis [1] Group 1: AI and Computing Demand - CITIC Securities expresses optimism regarding the demand for computing power driven by AI, highlighting sectors such as optical modules, optical devices, optical chips, switches, liquid cooling, IDC, and edge AI [1] Group 2: Traditional Communication Industry - The traditional communication industry is facing challenges due to decreased capital expenditure from telecom operators, leading to low market expectations [1] - Despite the current challenges, the development of key technologies for 6G has commenced, and the increased focus on AI by operators is noteworthy [1] Group 3: Quantum Technology - Both China and the United States are placing significant emphasis on quantum technology, with related companies in the U.S. stock market experiencing substantial gains [1] - It is recommended to pay close attention to segments such as dilution refrigeration machines and low-temperature coaxial cables [1]

Group 1 - The AI industry revolution is ongoing, with strong demand for computing power and promising applications [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] - The telecommunications operators' capital expenditure is expected to decline, but the research on 6G technology has commenced, indicating potential recovery in the future [2] Group 2 - The focus on quantum technology is increasing in both China and the U.S., with significant developments such as NVIDIA's NVQLink for connecting GPUs to quantum processors [3] - The report highlights several companies with investment potential, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Yuanjie Technology, and others, as key recommendations for 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increased policy confidence and strategic initiative reflected in the "15th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the dual drive of technology and consumption for industrial restructuring [2][10] - The document states that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, indicating a shift from a risk-averse approach to a more proactive strategy in policy-making [10][11] - The plan outlines specific directions for industrial restructuring, focusing on revitalizing manufacturing and enhancing the security of industrial chains, with an emphasis on upgrading key industries such as mining, metallurgy, and chemicals [10][11] Group 2 - Technology innovation is established as a core pillar for the "15th Five-Year Plan," with initiatives aimed at promoting industrial innovation and developing strategic emerging industries like new energy and aerospace [10][11] - The report emphasizes a shift in consumption policy towards a more operational and structural approach, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness through social security improvements and targeted subsidies [11][12] - The document suggests that the upcoming U.S.-China summit may boost market sentiment, with investment opportunities identified in AI applications, anti-involution themes, and brokerage sectors [14]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among brokerage strategy analysts is optimistic about the market outlook, with a particular focus on the technology sector as a main investment theme [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - The upcoming trade negotiations between China and the U.S., along with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, are expected to strengthen the technology growth trend [1][2]. - The market has shifted back to a performance-driven structure, with two emerging themes: supply chain security and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge computing [1][3]. - The "Fifteen Five" plan marks a strategic shift from a defensive to an offensive approach, emphasizing proactive economic development and high-level technological self-reliance [1][3][4]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - The technology sector remains a long-term focus, with significant attention on AI and its applications, particularly as major tech companies prepare to release earnings reports [2][3]. - Analysts highlight the potential for manufacturing companies to benefit from China's competitive advantages and the high costs of resetting overseas production capacities [1][3]. - The "Fifteen Five" plan is expected to enhance the strategic position of technology development, creating new opportunities for investment in sectors such as AI, quantum technology, and advanced manufacturing [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The recent policy statements from the Fourth Plenary Session are seen as reducing the likelihood of contractionary policies, which could support a bull market extending into 2026 [1][4]. - The focus on domestic consumption and supply chain security is expected to lead to more structured and sustained consumption stimulus policies [4][5]. - The overall policy environment is perceived as favorable for the A-share market, particularly in technology, manufacturing, and consumer sectors [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the third-quarter report of the China Europe Digital Economy Fund, highlighting significant growth in fund size and strategic adjustments in stock holdings, particularly in the AI sector, amidst a backdrop of both opportunities and risks in the market [2][4][9]. Fund Performance and Strategy - The China Europe Digital Economy Fund's size increased from 1.527 billion to 13.021 billion yuan in the third quarter, marking a nearly 8-fold growth [2][7]. - The fund maintains a high equity position, with over 88% in stocks, focusing on five core investment areas: AI infrastructure, intelligent robotics and driving, AI applications, edge AI, and the domestic AI supply chain [4][9]. - The top three holdings are Xinyi Sheng, Alibaba-W, and Zhongji Xuchuang, each with a market value exceeding 1.1 billion yuan [4][6]. Stock Adjustments - The fund slightly reduced its holdings in AI infrastructure while increasing allocations to intelligent robotics and optimizing its AI application portfolio, shifting focus from B-end to C-end companies [4][9]. - Significant increases in holdings were noted for companies like Huydian Co., Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with increases of 203.31%, 275.26%, 177.09%, and 161.39% respectively [5][6]. Market Outlook - The fund manager, Feng Ludan, indicated that while AI technology is in a phase of rapid iteration and commercialization, high valuations impose stricter performance expectations, leading to increased volatility in the sector [9][10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified investment strategies to mitigate risks associated with high valuations in the AI sector while capitalizing on its growth potential [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is entering a critical policy window, with increased market attention on its implications for capital markets and industry development [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Positioning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a key phase for achieving the 2035 long-term goals, bridging the previous and upcoming plans [3][12]. - It is also crucial for completing the reform tasks set by the 20th Central Committee by 2029, with over 300 important reform measures proposed [3][12]. Group 2: Important Directions for Capital Markets During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - Key areas of focus include digital technology (AI, 6G, quantum technology), space economy (low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology), high-end manufacturing (embodied intelligence, aerospace technology, solid-state batteries), domestic consumption (new consumption, quality upgrades), and healthcare (innovative drugs, high-end medical devices) [4][9]. Group 3: Capital Market Performance Characteristics During Previous Five-Year Plans - Historical data shows that A-share indices have generally risen during five-year plans, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing varied performance: -44.0%, +141.9%, +26.0%, -1.9%, and +13.3% across different plans [5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen a steady increase in A-share resilience and risk resistance, with a market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create opportunities in the context of global monetary system restructuring, AI trends, and China's manufacturing advantages [8][9]. - The capital market is anticipated to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend, supported by government emphasis on capital market development and favorable macroeconomic conditions [9]. Group 5: Industry-Specific Insights - **Digital Technology**: The AI industry is expected to accelerate, with significant advancements in AI applications and quantum technology development [18][19]. - **Space Economy**: The commercial aerospace sector, particularly satellite internet, is poised for growth, supported by government policies and technological advancements [19][20]. - **High-End Manufacturing**: The sector is expected to benefit from technological innovations and policy support, with a focus on embodied intelligence and solid-state batteries [21][24]. - **Domestic Consumption**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a shift towards personalized and quality-driven consumption patterns [25][26]. - **Healthcare**: The innovative drug and high-end medical device sectors are projected to grow significantly, driven by supportive policies and market demand [28][29].