数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月13日 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 欢迎关注微信公众号 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 美元指数由于受到美国10月制造业PMI及就业市场 | | | | IF2512 | | 超预期影响,近期有所走强,压制风险资产表现, | | | 股指 | IH2512 IC2512 | 红利价值板块坚挺,A股持续盘整 | 但国内股指韧性较强,整体上继续降波等待企稳。 三季报发布后,A股整体处于再定价调整中,短期 | | | | IM2512 | | 常见窄幅回调及反弹,下方风险有限,推荐观望为 | | | | | | 主。若单日出现深度下挫,可布局看跌期权牛市价 美 | | | | | | 短期10年期国债活跃券250016.IB的波动区间可 | | | | T2512 | | 能在1.75%-1.82%,且央行国债买卖重启、央行 | | | | | | 货币政策导向偏宽松,影响利率顶部、期债底部更 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility while waiting for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%, and with the restart of central bank Treasury bond trading and a loose monetary policy orientation, the top of interest rates and the bottom of Treasury bond futures are more solid [3]. - The buying power of gold and silver has increased, and their price centers are expected to continue to rise [3]. - Various commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity, such as buying on dips, holding long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a re - pricing adjustment after the release of the third - quarter reports, with narrow - range callbacks and rebounds in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bullish put - option spread can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The buying power of gold and silver has increased. Gold resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and it can be bought on dips below $4100 (936 yuan). Silver may rise to $52 (12000 yuan), and long - call options can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract is in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and an arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1170 - 1290, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1780, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and corresponding investment suggestions, such as holding long - positions for tin, and taking a wait - and - see or other strategies for others [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 58000 due to decreased demand and falling silicon wafer prices [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price is in a moderate - amplitude shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high [3]. Energy and Chemical - **PX, PTA, etc.**: Each chemical product has its own price range and investment strategies, such as taking a wait - and - see attitude, reducing long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Hogs, etc.**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions, such as holding a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage for hogs and paying attention to support or pressure levels for others [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly reports, with common short - term rebounds and limited downside risks [2]. - The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals as credit data is expected to weaken in October, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market [2]. - International gold prices will mainly show a volatile consolidation trend, with silver following gold's fluctuations [2]. - The shipping index (European line) will be volatile in the short term [2]. - The supply of iron elements in the steel market is loose, and there are various trading strategies for different steel - related products [2]. - The prices of some chemical products are affected by supply - demand and cost factors, with limited rebound space or downward pressure [2]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, supply, and production, showing different trends [2]. - Special and new energy products have their own price trends and trading logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market冲高兑现预期, there is a slight callback, and the technology sector recovers. A - shares are in repricing adjustment, with short - term rebounds and limited downside risks. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market. It is recommended to go long on a single - side strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: International gold prices will oscillate between 3900 - 4030 dollars, and silver will fluctuate between 47 - 49 dollars [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures (European Line)**: It will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose. It is recommended to hold a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and to go short on the iron ore contract at high prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: After the shipping volume declines and the arrival volume increases, the port inventory rises, and the iron ore price drops after rising. It is recommended to go short at high prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the producing area is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The third - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has回调, and the downstream demand has briefly recovered. Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the pressure at 86500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has increased in both volume and price, but the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main operation range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as zinc oscillating at a high level between 22300 - 23000, tin maintaining a high - level oscillation, etc. [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectations are weak, and the cost - end support is limited, with limited rebound space [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options and consider a reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and trading suggestions, such as PVC being recommended to go short on rebounds [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The prices of some grains and oils are affected by factors such as trade negotiations and production. For example, the price of palm oil is weak, and it is recommended to close the long positions of some contracts [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig price is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own price trend and trading suggestions, such as sugar being recommended to trade short on rebounds [2]. Special and New Energy Products - **Glass**: There is support at the bottom due to the peak construction season and production line disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot market for short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. - **Rubber**: The negative factors have been gradually digested, and the rubber price has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are mainly oscillating, with specific price ranges [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading logic has changed recently, and it is in a weak adjustment [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares show strong resilience and stage a phased stabilization and rebound. After the quarterly reports, the A-share market is in a repricing adjustment, with trading sentiment cold and the direction unclear. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The overall market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the bond interest rate fluctuation range will generally decline. The short-term fluctuation range of the active 10-year treasury bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading has strengthened the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. It is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - The short-term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 (¥900) and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. - For the steel market, the iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot-rolled coils. For iron ore, with shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore. For coking coal, the local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coke, with the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500. The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600. The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000. The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000. The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips. The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000. The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. - For the chemical market, the PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread. The PTA rebound space is also limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage. The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs. The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton. The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5. The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view. The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds. The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs. The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds. The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point. The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see. The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. - In the agricultural product market, due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions in M2601 and RM601 cautiously. The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160. The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan. The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended. The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800. The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity. The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan. The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly. The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained. The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities. The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see. The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500. The polysilicon market has stable spot prices, falling silicon wafers, and a rising futures premium, with the price oscillating between 50000 - 58000. The lithium carbonate market's disk is maintaining a weak oscillation, and the trading logic has changed, with a weak adjustment and the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan [2]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512: The market has a slight correction after reaching a high and fulfilling expectations, with volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market shows strong resilience and a phased rebound. After the quarterly reports, the market is in a repricing adjustment, with cold trading sentiment and an unclear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - T2512, TF2512, TS2512, TL2512: The overall market sentiment has improved. The bond interest rate fluctuation range is expected to decline. The short - term fluctuation range of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading strengthens the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on dips; for the cash - and - carry strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2]. Precious Metals - AU2512, AG2512: The short - term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. Shipping Index - EC2512: The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - RB2601: The iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot - rolled coils [2]. - I2601: With shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [2]. - JM2601: The local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - J2601: With the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - CU2512: The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500 [2]. - AO2601: The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - AL2512: The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 [2]. - ZN2512: The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2]. - SN2512: The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [2]. - NI2512: The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 [2]. - SS2512: The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. Chemicals - PX2601: The PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread [2]. - TA2601: The PTA rebound space is limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - PF2512: The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs [2]. - PR2601: The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2]. - EG2601: The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5 [2]. - SH2601: The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view [2]. - V2601: The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - BZ2603: The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs [2]. - EB2511: The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds [2]. - L2601: The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point [2]. - PP2601: The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - MA2601: The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [2]. - BR2512: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. Agricultural Products - M2601, RM601: Due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [2]. - LH2601: The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2]. - C2601: The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2]. - P2601, Y2601: The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan [2]. - SR2601: The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended [2]. - CF2601: The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800 [2]. - JD2512: The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. - AP2601: The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan [2]. - CJ2601: The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly [2]. - SA2601: The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained [2]. - FG2601: The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities [2]. - RU2601: The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Si2601: The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500 [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2) Core Views - The A-share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly report release, with trading sentiment being cold and the direction unclear [2]. - Bond interest rates are expected to have a lower fluctuation range, and investors can consider appropriate long - positions on 10 - year Treasury bonds on dips [2]. - Precious metals are under pressure from liquidity tightening and a stronger dollar, with gold and silver showing different short - term trends [2]. - The shipping index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - The steel and iron ore markets have complex supply - demand situations, with different trading strategies for each contract [2]. - The energy and chemical sector has diverse trends, with some products like MEG expected to decline and others having different trading opportunities [2]. - The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy details, with different trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Special and new energy products also have their own price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market's upward movement and profit - taking, there is a slight correction. It is recommended to wait and see as the direction is not clear [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Long positions on dips and positive arbitrage strategies are suggested [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has short - term downward pressure but buying support. It can be bought on dips below 3900 dollars (900 yuan). Silver may fall to the previous low of 45 dollars (11000 yuan), and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) is short - term volatile, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore Futures**: For steel, a long - coal and short - coil strategy is recommended for the January 2026 contract. For iron ore, short positions are recommended on rallies for the 2601 contract, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is also suggested [2]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have limited rebound space, and short positions on rallies are recommended; MEG is expected to decline, and holding out - of - the - money call options and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are suggested [2]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Products like soybeans, corn, and palm oil have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, long positions in the 2601 soybean contract should be held cautiously, and the palm oil may test the 8500 - yuan support [2]. - **Special and New Energy Futures**: Glass offers short - long opportunities by observing the spot market; industrial silicon and polysilicon have price fluctuation ranges, and lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Outlook - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment has improved slightly, with different sectors showing various trends. The stock index market is in a shrinking and volatile state, the bond market interest rate is expected to decline, and the precious metal market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. Commodity markets such as black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products also have their own characteristics and trends [2] Group 3: Sector - by - Sector Summaries Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is volatile after a short - term high, with the cyclical sectors outperforming. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond interest rate is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to trade between $3995 - $4070 (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to trade within the range or sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices. Silver is in a range of $47 - $50 (11000 - 11700 yuan) [2] Commodity Sector Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: It is in short - term shock, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand is rising, and inventory pressure is relieved. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to go short on rallies for the January 2026 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support level of 86000 - 86500 [2] - **Alumina**: The main contract is expected to run in the range of 2750 - 2900 [2] - **Aluminum**: The price has broken through recent highs, and short - term corrections should be watched out for. The main reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2] - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating strongly, with a reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2] - **Tin**: It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Nickel**: The main reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 12500 - 13000 [2] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [2] - **PTA**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2] - **Short - Fiber**: The rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [2] - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The upward drive is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on rallies [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is under pressure, and a bearish view is recommended [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction is not improved, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] - **Benzene**: It is recommended to be bearish on rallies following the oil price [2] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance. It is recommended to be bearish on the rebound of the December contract [2] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is poor. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2] - **PP**: The trading is light, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - **Methanol**: Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 3 - 5 spread [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: China has started to purchase US soybeans, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the January 2026 contract [2] - **Pig**: The supply - demand is loose, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Corn**: The supply has decreased, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2] - **Oil**: The fundamentals are bearish, and the Y main contract may test the support of 8000 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is loose, and the domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, oscillating at the bottom around 5450 - 5550 [2] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, oscillating in the range of 13500 - 13800 [2] - **Egg**: It is short - term strong but long - term bearish. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage and short - selling opportunities [2] - **Apple**: The price of ground fruits in Shandong has declined, and attention should be paid to the support of 9000 yuan [2] - **Jujube**: The jujubes are concentrated on the ground, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support of 10000 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The surplus pattern continues, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The change of production lines in Shahe has affected the market. Attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales to capture short - term long opportunities [2] - **Rubber**: The inventory of dark - colored rubber has reached an inflection point, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - **Industrial Silicon**: The operating rate has decreased, and the price may be strong after oscillating [2] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of platform company implementation. The price may be strong after oscillating [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has been re - boosted by the potential Sino - US talks at the end - of - month APEC Summit and Trump's softening signals, but the market trading volume has not increased, and the short - term trend is mainly high - level oscillations [3] - There are many uncertainties in the short - term market, including the implementation of the fund redemption fee new rules, the outcome of key meetings and Sino - US trade negotiations, which have a significant impact on short - term risk appetite [3] - Different commodities have different trends. For example, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, some are affected by geopolitical factors, and some are influenced by cost and inventory factors [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: Low - valuation sectors are rotating, and the stock index is oscillating with shrinking volume. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [3] - **Treasury Bond**: The trend of treasury bond futures is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies and pay appropriate attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the recovery of IRR [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold has twice bottomed out and rebounded under the game between long and short positions, with a potential support price of $4000. Silver still has downward pressure, with a support level around $47 [3] Black - **Steel**: There is an oversupply of plates, and it is necessary to reduce production and destock. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies, conduct long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil operations, and conduct reverse arbitrage for monthly spreads [3] - **Iron Ore**: Supply - side disturbances have weakened, arrivals have declined, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has slightly decreased. Iron ore has stopped falling and stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price of local coal is running strongly, downstream replenishment demand has recovered, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3] - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the festival, and the mainstream coking enterprises proposed a second - round increase. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: Social inventories have increased during the peak season, and the copper price is oscillating. The main support level is between 84,000 - 85,000 [3] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The social inventory of aluminum is gradually decreasing, and the price is oscillating around 21,000. The social inventory of aluminum alloy has shown an inflection point, and the price is oscillating strongly following the aluminum price [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc prices have strengthened slightly due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze. Tin prices are oscillating at a high level supported by strong fundamentals. Nickel prices are oscillating, and stainless steel prices are oscillating in a narrow range [3] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Supported by positive EIA inventory data and geopolitical uncertainties, the short - term oil price still has upward momentum, but the medium - and long - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [3] - **Other Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA are boosted by short - term oil price increases; short - fiber is oscillating strongly in the short term; ethanol is under pressure in the short term; and some products are recommended for specific arbitrage strategies [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The export expectation of US soybeans has improved, and attention should be paid to the domestic arrival rhythm. The palm oil price has fallen due to increased production [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig - breeding end has a strong enthusiasm for slaughter, and the intensity of secondary fattening may slow down. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [3] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, and apples have different price trends and corresponding support or pressure levels [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The glass price is continuing to weaken, and the spot trading is still light. It is recommended to take a bearish attitude [3] - **Rubber**: The positive sentiment for rubber remains strong, and the rubber price continues to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **New Energy - Related Commodities**: The price of industrial silicon is oscillating, and the price of polysilicon is oscillating downward. The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating strongly, and the main price range is between 76,000 - 80,000 [3]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next, large - scale group companies significantly reduced supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened. The overall supply increment in September was relatively large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline. The purchasing sentiment for piglets decreased, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, and it is mainly strong in the short - term. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,400 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,240 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year change of 0 [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 were 13,315 yuan/ton, 13,740 yuan/ton, and 13,015 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 85, 85, and 65 respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For example, the trading volume of生猪2511 was 32,626 lots, an increase of 6,090 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 75,719 lots, a decrease of 2,241 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of生猪2511 was 265 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 85; the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs was - 425 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year change of 0; the 1 - 3 spread was 725 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20 [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity was 0, with the value range being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels were classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 indicated the most bearish and 2 indicated the most bullish [3]