Group 1: Monetary Supply - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] Group 2: Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.52 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - Net financing through corporate bonds reached 1.82 trillion yuan, up by 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 3: Loan and Deposit Growth - The total RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with household loans rising by 739.6 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 13.79 trillion yuan [4] - RMB deposits grew by 23.32 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with household deposits increasing by 11.39 trillion yuan [5] - The total balance of RMB loans was 270.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [4] Group 4: Interest Rates - The weighted average interbank lending rate in October was 1.39%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The one-year loan market quoted interest rate was 3.00%, and the rate for loans over five years was 3.50%, both lower by 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 5: Exchange Rates - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 97.61, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the end of last year [8] - The RMB appreciated by 1.42% against the US dollar, while it depreciated by 8.38% against the euro [8]

Group 1: Social Financing Scale - As of the end of October 2025, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [1] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy, converted to RMB, was 1.15 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 16.9% [1] Group 2: Structure of Financing - By the end of October, RMB loans accounted for 61% of the total social financing scale, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The proportion of government bonds increased by 2 percentage points to 21.3% year-on-year [2] - The share of corporate bonds decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Financing Increment - The cumulative increment of social financing for the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.52 trillion yuan, which was a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - Government bonds net financing reached 11.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] Group 4: Monetary Supply - By the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [4] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [4] - The cash in circulation (M0) reached 13.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [4] Group 5: Deposits - By the end of October, the total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies amounted to 332.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [5] - RMB deposits increased by 23.32 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [5] - Foreign currency deposits reached 1.04 trillion USD, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [5] Group 6: Loans - By the end of October, the total loans in both domestic and foreign currencies were 274.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [6] - RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [6] - Foreign currency loans decreased by 3% year-on-year, with an increase of 125 million USD in the first ten months [6] Group 7: Interbank Market - In October, the total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market reached 164.86 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 9.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [7] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.39%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [7] - The weighted average rate for pledged bond repos was 1.4%, also lower than the previous month and the same period last year [7] Group 8: Cross-Border RMB Settlement - In October, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 1.41 trillion yuan [8] - The direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amount was 0.65 trillion yuan [8] - The breakdown included 1.09 trillion yuan for goods trade and 0.32 trillion yuan for service trade [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct light - position trading with attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [4][5] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 1.12% and an amplitude of 2.53%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 86,900 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's hawkish stance continues to send cautious signals. Daly said it's too early to say whether there will be a rate cut in December. Musalem believes that the policy is approaching neutrality and the easing space is limited [4] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the smelting cost support logic still exists. The supply growth of refined copper has slowed down, and the demand is temporarily stable. Social inventory has decreased slightly [4] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 14, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 86,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 960 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 192,293 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 14,843 lots [10] - **Spot Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 87,095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton [13] - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [13] - **Premium and Position**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 45 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 19,148 lots, an increase of 1,063 lots from last week [22] - **Option Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8142, a week - on - week increase of 0.0422 [27] 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Price and Processing Fee**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 77,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 590 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Import and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. The refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 3,453.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 235.74 yuan/ton [36] - **Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 498,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons [41] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The import profit and loss amount was 31.27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120.55 yuan/ton [50][51] - **Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 275 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 10,070 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 6,436 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 198,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [54] 3.5. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 0.6% and 9.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [64] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of October 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [76][77]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of October, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.83 trillion yuan [3] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [3] Group 2: Loan and Interest Rate Trends - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and an increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in loans during the first ten months [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, approximately 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, about 8 basis points lower year-on-year [3] Group 3: Trade and Economic Development - In the first ten months of the year, Shanghai's import and export volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, with exports amounting to 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 10.5% [7] - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone has implemented 80 reform measures for institutional openness, with 77 measures being replicated nationwide or in other free trade zones [9] - ASEAN has maintained its position as China's largest trading partner for agricultural and food products for eight consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching 513 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Technological Advancements - China completed water conservancy construction investments of 1,009.47 billion yuan in the first ten months, implementing 46,000 various water conservancy projects [10] - The first phase of 6G technology testing has been completed, with over 300 key technology reserves formed, and 57 tests conducted in five major technical directions [10]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released financial statistics for October, indicating a steady growth in monetary supply and social financing, reflecting ongoing economic activity and liquidity in the market [1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year. The narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, while the currency in circulation (M0) stood at 13.55 trillion yuan, increasing by 10.6%. A net cash injection of 728.4 billion yuan occurred in the first ten months [2] Social Financing - The total social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan at the end of October, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase. The RMB loans to the real economy amounted to 267.01 trillion yuan, up 6.3%, while foreign currency loans converted to RMB were 115 billion yuan, down 16.9% [3] Incremental Financing - In the first ten months, the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.52 trillion yuan, while foreign currency loans decreased by 114.6 billion yuan [4] Deposits - The total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 332.92 trillion yuan by the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. RMB deposits were 325.55 trillion yuan, up 8%, and the increase in RMB deposits over the first ten months was 23.32 trillion yuan [5] Loans - The total loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 274.54 trillion yuan by the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. RMB loans were 270.61 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.5%, with a total increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article is the analysis of China's financial data for October, highlighting the growth in M2 and social financing, which supports the economic recovery and provides a favorable monetary environment for growth [3]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loans - As of the end of October, the total social financing stock reached 437.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [3]. - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, while foreign currency loans decreased by 16.9% [3]. - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. Group 2: Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [6]. - Narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, while the currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.55 trillion yuan, up by 10.6% [6]. Group 3: Deposits - By the end of October, the total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies amounted to 332.92 trillion yuan, with RMB deposits at 325.55 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [7]. - The increase in RMB deposits for the first ten months was 23.32 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 11.39 trillion yuan [8]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Market Activity - In October, the weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.39%, which is lower than both the previous month and the same month last year [12]. - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market reached 164.86 trillion yuan, with a daily average transaction of 9.16 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [12]. Group 5: Cross-Border Transactions - In October, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 1.41 trillion yuan, with direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amounting to 0.65 trillion yuan [13].

Core Insights - The total social financing stock reached 437.72 trillion yuan at the end of October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, reaching 335.13 trillion yuan [4] - The total amount of RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [6] Financing Structure - RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 61% of the total social financing stock, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The proportion of foreign currency loans to the real economy remained stable at 0.3% year-on-year [2] - Government bonds saw a significant increase, with a balance of 93.03 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [1] Monthly and Year-to-Date Trends - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - The average monthly weighted interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.39%, lower than both the previous month and the same period last year [7] - The total amount of cross-border RMB settlements under current accounts reached 1.41 trillion yuan in October [8] Deposits and Loans - RMB deposits increased by 23.32 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with household deposits rising by 11.39 trillion yuan [5] - The balance of foreign currency deposits reached 1.04 trillion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.3% [5] - The balance of loans from non-bank financial institutions decreased by 185 billion yuan [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the financial statistics report for October 2025, indicating significant growth in various monetary aggregates [1] Monetary Aggregates - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] Cash Injection - In the first ten months of the year, a net cash injection of 728.4 billion yuan was recorded [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year growth of 8.5% in the total social financing scale as of October 2025, reaching 437.72 trillion yuan [2] - The report indicates a mixed performance in various financing components, with significant growth in government bonds and a decline in foreign currency loans [2][4] Financing Scale - The total social financing increment for the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [4] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, while foreign currency loans decreased by 16.9% [2][4] Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase, while narrow money supply (M1) grew by 6.2% [5] - Cash in circulation (M0) increased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a net cash injection of 728.4 billion yuan in the first ten months [5] Deposits and Loans - Total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 332.92 trillion yuan, with RMB deposits growing by 8% year-on-year [6] - RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with household loans rising by 7.396 trillion yuan [7] Interbank Market Activity - The interbank RMB market saw a total transaction volume of 164.86 trillion yuan in October, with a daily average transaction of 9.16 trillion yuan, marking a 0.9% year-on-year increase [8] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.39%, lower than both the previous month and the same period last year [8] Cross-Border Transactions - In October, the cross-border RMB settlement amount for current account transactions was 1.41 trillion yuan, with direct investment settlements totaling 0.65 trillion yuan [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," highlighting the relationship between base money and broader money supply, emphasizing that base money is the source of money creation and the foundation of the banking system's asset-liability activities [1] Group 1: Base Money and Broad Money - Base money, also known as "high-powered money," includes cash in circulation and commercial banks' reserves at the central bank, totaling 38.6 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, while the broad money supply (M2) exceeded 335 trillion yuan [1] - Base money and broader money are distinct concepts; base money is a liability of the central bank, while broader money reflects the disposable funds of residents, enterprises, and governments, primarily representing commercial bank liabilities [1] Group 2: Money Creation Process - The money creation process involves central banks, commercial banks, and the real economy, where commercial banks derive deposits through asset expansion, forming broad money [2] - The ability of commercial banks to create money is influenced by the effective financing demand from the real economy, meaning that money creation occurs when there is a willingness and capacity to lend [2] Group 3: Diversification of Financing Channels - The traditional dominance of bank loans in China's financial system is evolving, with direct financing rapidly developing, allowing banks to diversify their asset expansion methods, including purchasing bonds [3][4] - As of now, bank loans account for approximately 60% of total bank assets, while the proportion of bonds held has increased from about 20% at the end of 2019 to around 25% [4] Group 4: Structural Changes in Monetary Policy - The PBOC is adapting its base money injection methods to support the evolving financing structure, utilizing structural monetary policy tools, with these tools accounting for about 13% of base money as of Q3 2025 [4] - The central bank's re-lending serves as a crucial channel for regulating base money, reflecting the borrowing relationship between the central bank and commercial banks, rather than direct loans to enterprises [4] Group 5: Long-term Financial Market Development - The development of direct financing and changes in the financing structure are expected to have profound impacts on the total money supply and financial regulation [5] - Future monetary policy will focus on transforming the regulatory framework to emphasize price-based controls, enhancing the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments in resource allocation [5]