机构：长江证券 研究员：陈亮/杨洋/高伊楠 小米家电：战略升级 ，规模突破小米集团以MIUI 系统为起点，历经十余年发展构建"人车家"生态闭 环，而家电产品作为"家"生态的核心业务，近年来实现较好发展，对应2020-2024 年智能大家电业务收 入CAGR 高达48.8%。凭借较强的自研能力与生态链布局，公司当前已基本实现家电全品类覆盖，其中 白电与黑电以小米自主开发为主，其余品类基本采取生态链模式。我们认为，无论是从顶层战略、组织 架构或具体打法出发，家电业务已成为公司重要战略组成部分。 外因：差异定位，顺势卡位 面对国内家电行业长期固化的竞争格局，我们认为小米之所以能够快速取得突破，消费环境偏谨慎以及 龙头策略转向是两个重要的客观因素。一方面，近几年外部环境相对偏弱，更多消费者开始选择高性价 比供给，小米目标客群快速扩张，带动其市场份额快速提升。另一方面，头部企业近年来更加注重盈利 质量，前者价格的向上偏离释放了较好的生态位红利，同时使小米的性价比优势进一步凸显。 内因：生态助力，创新突围 外部环境利好性价比品牌是一方面，但无论是较快的份额提升节奏，还是高端化战略的短期顺利落地， 都表明小米家电的竞争力正 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 67.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.7% from the current closing price of HKD 58.95 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the official launch of the Xiaomi YU7, along with other products, and has adjusted the sales forecast for Xiaomi's automotive segment for 2025 and 2026 upwards. The YU7 is expected to lead in sales within the SUV segment, contributing significantly to revenue growth [2][6]. - The financial projections show a substantial increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with revenue expected to reach RMB 646.16 billion in 2026, up from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.1% [3][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of production capacity for Xiaomi's automotive business, predicting that new factories will start contributing to production in the second half of 2026, with projected sales of 400,000 and 700,000 units for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: - 2023: RMB 270,970 million - 2024: RMB 365,906 million - 2025E: RMB 504,404 million - 2026E: RMB 646,164 million - 2027E: RMB 778,515 million - Net profit is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 65,250 million by 2027, up from RMB 17,475 million in 2023, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][13]. - The report also provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with a forecast of RMB 2.17 for 2026, reflecting a substantial increase from RMB 0.77 in 2023 [3][14]. Product Launch and Market Position - The Xiaomi YU7 features advanced specifications, including a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds and a maximum speed of 253 km/h, positioning it competitively in the electric SUV market [6][7]. - The launch of the first AI glasses by Xiaomi is expected to enhance its ecosystem, with a pricing strategy that slightly exceeds market expectations, indicating potential for long-term growth [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Xiaomi's first SUV model, YU7, marks a significant step in the company's entry into the electric vehicle market, aiming to establish a high-end presence and enhance its automotive business growth potential [1][6]. Group 1: Product Features and Market Positioning - YU7 is described as a milestone for Xiaomi, featuring an 800V high-voltage platform, seven laser radars, and an NVIDIA Thor chip with a computing power of 700 TOPS, alongside a CLTC range of 835 kilometers, showcasing its competitive edge in the high-end market [3]. - The pricing strategy is a focal point, with speculation that YU7 may be priced 20,000 to 30,000 yuan higher than the SU7 standard version, although Xiaomi's CEO clarified that the target user groups for the two models are entirely different [3]. - YU7's anticipated final price may exceed 250,000 yuan, positioning it directly against Tesla's Model Y in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Potential and Sales Forecast - Market analysts view YU7 as having "explosive potential," with monthly sales expected to reach 30,000 to 40,000 units, which would significantly contribute to Xiaomi's automotive revenue growth [6]. - The successful launch of YU7 is expected to follow the path of SU7, which surpassed Tesla's Model 3 in sales, indicating a strong competitive strategy against Tesla's Model Y [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Importance - Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain for Xiaomi in the high-end automotive market, particularly in brand positioning against established competitors like BYD and Tesla [6]. - The release of YU7 is not just a new model introduction but a critical test of Xiaomi's electric vehicle strategy, with the ability to penetrate the high-end market and enhance overall business valuation being key challenges [9].

Group 1: Market Overview - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 25.89 billion in the Hong Kong stock market, with HK Stock Connect (Shanghai) net buying HKD 8.12 billion and HK Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net buying HKD 17.77 billion [1] - The most net bought stocks included Meituan-W (03690), SMIC (00981), and China Construction Bank (00939) [1] Group 2: Net Buying and Selling Details - Meituan-W (03690) received a net inflow of HKD 7.85 billion, with a focus on consolidating operations in key regions and expanding its flash purchase and supermarket services [6] - SMIC (00981) saw a net inflow of HKD 7.23 billion amid reports of potential changes in U.S. technology export policies affecting major chip manufacturers [6] - China Construction Bank (00939) had a net inflow of HKD 6.93 billion, supported by favorable dividend yields compared to A-shares [6] - Xinda Biopharmaceutical (01801) received a net inflow of HKD 5.99 billion due to its ADC product being included in breakthrough therapy designations [7] - Pop Mart (09992) had a net inflow of HKD 5.26 billion, attributed to improved supply chain capabilities and sales management [7] Group 3: Net Selling Highlights - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a net outflow of HKD 15.51 billion, with analysts noting potential risks from macroeconomic conditions and slower EV demand growth [9] - Alibaba-W (09988) experienced a net outflow of HKD 7.51 billion, following its merger of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce division, which was seen as a move to enhance operational efficiency [8] - Tencent (00700) had a net outflow of HKD 9.44 billion, reflecting broader market trends [9] - Shandong Molong (00568) and CNOOC (00883) were sold off due to declining oil prices amid geopolitical developments [8]